Possible development in carribean...??

[Aric Dunn]

This nothing more than a interesting feature that developed over the last couple days. I noticed the very minimal convection yesterday and the sharp wave axis over the islands. That area has developed a small but fairly tight circulation. The convection is still minimal as it is in a area of dry air but the environment seems to be slowly improving. Shear is low throughout the Caribbean and even though it is a small area it is defined and interesting enough to watch especially if convection increases.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html

[srainhoutx]

Nice little LLC at work down there...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... height=880

[KWT]

What a small system this is, got a good little spin to it though thats for sure but these systems can be destryoed in a very small amount of time.

What I'd be looking for is an increase in low level converegence, if that happens then for sure it'd get attention...

[Aquawind]

Saw it yesterday and it continues to rotate..let's see some deep convection..actually not..it has to make a landfall at this point.

[KWT]

Some deeper convection has recently developed over the center, its very small though and upper conditions look pretty poor to the west with the hybrid mess developing near Florida right now.

[rockyman]

From the 2pm Discussion:

HOWEVER...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W FROM 11N TO
15N ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1752.shtml?

[rockyman]

Being following as "PGI26L"

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... 111&loop=0

[srainhoutx]

The Western Caribbean looks mighty hospitable development wise. Worth watching IMO.

[rockyman]

Shear is less than 10 knots..a ship to the west of the "center" is reporting a pressure of 1012...not particularly low, especially for the Caribbean in August

[rockyman]

8pm TWO---No mention

[Aric Dunn]

Im thinking more western Caribbean chance

[hurricaneCW]

I guess we'll be seeing another 92L type of system where it never tries to get going until the Western Caribbean, but then it runs out of time to organize and slams into land before even becoming a TD. Been there, done that.

[srainhoutx]

I guess we'll be seeing another 92L type of system where it never tries to get going until the Western Caribbean, but then it runs out of time to organize and slams into land before even becoming a TD. Been there, done that.

92L was a life time ago in the Tropics.

[KWT]

I see a pretty poor set-up in the NW Caribbean with 20-30kts of shear but the SW Caribbean looks a little better...

If it tracks above 15-16N, this one is going to run into some pretty high shear and given its size, will probably just poof out...I suspect thats why the models don't do anything with it, both its small size and the high shear in the W.Caribbean which isn't going anywhere yet!

[Ptarmigan]

If I recall, Rita formed from a rather unimpressive tropical wave that later interacted with a frontal boundary.

[bvigal]

Looks interesting this morning.

[srainhoutx]

Such a small compact little feature...

[Cryomaniac]

Certainly looks interesting. 95L later maybe?

[KWT]

Tiny system, may well be invested later on if it can somehow hold that presentation.

[mattpetre]

What happens if this energy and the frontal boundary merge? Helps or hurts strengthening chances, or is it basically a butterfly effect and just throws a wrench in all modeling?