ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[supercane]

Mid-day UW-CIMSS TCTrak analysis with vis, obs, shear.

[Macrocane]

It will find better conditions in the next 24-48 hours, I don't see why some people have given up on this system.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

It will find better conditions in the next 24-48 hours, I don't see why some people have given up on this system.

Exactly, upper level conditions will remain favorable, plus mid-level dry air will die down and lead to a more moist environment.

[Ptarmigan]

I think 93L will develop and become Danielle.

[hurricaneCW]

Again, it would be a waste to name this system. It won't be anything more than another 40 mph TS if it develops a bit further. It's recurving east of 55W so no chance to do anything. I'd rather have the new system off the Florida coast become Danielle than this one.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Again, it would be a waste to name this system. It won't be anything more than another 40 mph TS if it develops a bit further. It's recurving east of 55W so no chance to do anything. I'd rather have the new system off the Florida coast become Danielle than this one.

If a system classifies for a tropical storm it won't be considered wasting a name regardless if it affects land or not.

[cycloneye]

There is no wasting names at all if systems go fishing. If fishes would not count,then 1995 would have had a minority of named storms instead of 19.

[Aric Dunn]

Again, it would be a waste to name this system. It won't be anything more than another 40 mph TS if it develops a bit further. It's recurving east of 55W so no chance to do anything. I'd rather have the new system off the Florida coast become Danielle than this one.

its not about damage or location its about continuity if its a storm its a storm... there is no wasting of names..

[MiamiHurricanes10]

cycloneye, great example.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Up to 70%

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES WEST
OF BERMUDA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

[Macrocane]

Conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable

It's good that it is going to be a fish, I think this has a good chance of becoming the 2nd hurricane of the season.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable

It's good that it is going to be a fish, I think this has a good chance of becoming the 2nd hurricane of the season.

Indeed. Models are suggesting that 93L get in between two upper level troughs causing upper level ridging to balloon aloft. So you have favorable upper level conditions and a moist environment meaning your bound to get intensification. I'm with you, this will likely be the second hurricane of the season.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010080818, , BEST, 0, 228N, 450W, 25, 1011, DB


Moving now west at 280 degrees.

[brunota2003]

Nice to see our friend 93L is poised to become the 5th tropical depression of the season, and possibly the 4th named system! And it is way out to sea, too! Been interesting tracking this one, looking at the sat images, there is a very well defined llc (even better than Colin), and the convection is also deeper than Colin's.

[brunota2003]

Here's one for y'all...I was looking at the visible loops of 93L and noticed something interesting...it looked like it is a mini sized circulation, and I wouldn't of thought anything of it, except that it has convection starting to develop directly overtop of it! Okay, okay, so it is currently a single thunderstorm, but eh...caught my eye nonetheless.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I would say that 93L now is a tropical depression...LLC near 23.0N.

[southerngale]

Again, it would be a waste to name this system. It won't be anything more than another 40 mph TS if it develops a bit further. It's recurving east of 55W so no chance to do anything. I'd rather have the new system off the Florida coast become Danielle than this one.

Like others have said, if it classifies as a tropical storm, it gets a name. It's not about whether it recurves or how strong it will get. Comments like the one above just sound silly.

[RL3AO]

I would say that 93L now is a tropical depression...LLC near 23.0N.

They'd still be issuing advisories on it if it was already a TC, but they won't initiate advisories on it like that.

[cheezyWXguy]

Lol looks better than colin ever did.