ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[supercane]

First Dvorak classification for 93L not supportive for upgrade per SSD:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/0545 UTC 20.3N 42.4W TOO WEAK 93L

[supercane]

6Z best track from ATCF:

AL, 93, 2010080718, , BEST, 0, 198N, 398W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080800, , BEST, 0, 210N, 409W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080806, , BEST, 0, 219N, 420W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[WeatherGuesser]

Seems like a good week for fishing in the central Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 080400
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.0N 41.0W TO 26.0N
49.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 41.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST 1050NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLAND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KTS.
AT 08/0000Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DE-
CREASED IN STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS PRODUCING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW WIND SHEAR, UPPER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF
83 TO 86 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE VALID UNTIL 090400Z.//

[ColinDelia]

Buoy about 1 degree Northwest of the center.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13002

Winds currently NE at 12 kts

(Wrong buoy. See below)

[AJC3]

Buoy about 1 degree Northwest of the center.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13002

Winds currently NE at 12 kts

The NDBC site says that buoy is at 21N 23W.

[ColinDelia]

Buoy about 1 degree Northwest of the center.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13002

Winds currently NE at 12 kts

The NDBC site says that buoy is at 21N 23W.

Oops. My bad. CIMSS shows some buoy NW of there but i made out the numbers wrong. Still can't read it

[cycloneye]

Still at 60%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
1250 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

[cycloneye]

Its easy to track as the center is exposed to the SW of convection.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010080812, , BEST, 0, 228N, 437W, 25, 1011, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[wxman57]

It looks more impressive than Colin...

[cycloneye]

It was going to be Danielle as it was a sure bet a couple of days ago but the shear continues to play tricks with the season.Let's see if it goes down to then allow this system to develop into a Tropical Cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

Still looks better than TD #2

[hurricaneCW]

Perhaps we won't see Danielle from this system after all. Nice LLC, but not much else. Too much dry air interfering with development.

[HurrMark]

Yeah...I think yesterday would have been the day. Development looks unlikely now. Yet another system this year that needed one more "oomph" to get over the top, but just didn't get it.

[Aric Dunn]

Give it some more time it clearly has a closed circulation but is struggling with dry air...

[MiamiHurricanes10]

RGB satellite imagery clearly depicts that the surface circulation associated with 93L is closed. I assume that the only reason that the NHC is not upgrading this is due to the lack of convection, thus the low satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. We shall see...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rgb.html

[MiamiHurricanes10]

MIMIC-TPW shows a well-defined center about 93L.

[Aric Dunn]

In all honesty it is a depression... no reason it could not be upgraded...

[supercane]

Earlier ASCAT couldn't close a circulation: