ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

It's about time to pull the code red trigger at 2 if your following vorticity and latest convective developments. This may be very, very, close to TD status.

[cycloneye]

Look at the orientation of the TC formation area.

[cycloneye]

Circulation is getting better defined.

[HurrMark]

Yeah, this looks likely (maybe 60-70%) to become TD Five. Convection is still relatively weak, but circulation looks good, and the environment is OK for further development. But it doesn't appear likely at this point that it will become more than a moderate TS as it becomes a bonafide fish.

[Sanibel]

The season needs another week or two to get more favorable. Though a positive MJO or some other factor could enhance these systems at any time (most likely not).

[HURAKAN]

Give me a D ... D

Give me ANIELLE ... ANIELLE

What does it spell?

DANIELLE

Looking good

[ConvergenceZone]

I really wish these systems would move west and develop BEFORE they move out to sea. They are much more enjoyable to track as opposed to developing as they are moving North, then moving extremely quickly northward as they get caught up in the flow. These systems are no fun to track.......

Nonetheless, looks like we will have our 'D' storm shortly....

[KWT]

You get what you get really CZ, mother nature could care less what we want or wish for!

Looking like this one is probably another 12-18hrs away or so from developing, slowly getting there with the circulation just needs Dmax to come along but its slowly clawing itself there.

[ConvergenceZone]

You get what you get really CZ, mother nature could care less what we want or wish for!

Looking like this one is probably another 12-18hrs away or so from developing, slowly getting there with the circulation just needs Dmax to come along but its slowly clawing itself there.

KWT, Yea, I understand, but they just aren't attractive storms to track.....

[TexasF6]

That thing will not become Danielle. It should not be named!!!! this is just my opinion of course!!!

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%,Code Red

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

KWT, Yea, I understand, but they just aren't attractive storms to track.....

One of my fav storms, Hurricane Karl from 04 was a total fish, never even came close to land but because a bit of a brute in the end, mind you that season was full of brutes!

Anyway upto code red, its getting there and whilst its too early to know if it will be the D storm, I think odds are on its side it will be Danielle...haha everything thinking it will be strong, may end up not even being a hurricane

[TexasF6]

Is it wrong to cheerlead a storm to die off and not get named because it is not a storm you picked to be the big one??? Booooooo on 60%!!! Looks like garbage on Water Vapor. Go SAL go!!!!

[floridasun78]

That thing will not become Danielle. It should not be named!!!! this is just my opinion of course!!!

you most likely be wrong look at month we in any we under nina season this do high chance becoming next td see what nhc say 2pm post by other poster

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Good to see that 93L got upped to red...I thoroughly agree with that. If current organization trend continues we could have tropical depression #5 by tomorrow night.

[hurricaneCW]

It does look like we'll see Danielle in a few days. So technically we would be above normal in # of storms. Again, unless it ramps up to a hurricane, 1 Cat 2, and 3 weak-moderate TS does not make it an active start in terms of ACE, however, it does appear likely that the season will ramp up by the 20th of August. Also, the ridge should rebuild by that time, which will make it more likely for a Cape Verde storm to track further west instead of an easy recurve like this one will be doing.

[Weatherfreak000]

That thing will not become Danielle. It should not be named!!!! this is just my opinion of course!!!

Seriously, if you cannot provide your opinion with any reasonable or sound data or theory, why even bother posting? The NHC and EVERYONE else sees this organizing...you inexplicably see it dieing off? Please do yourself a favor and seem a little more sophisticated in your opinion.


I don't understand why people could POSSIBLY feel the need to downcast invests......I mean...it's an INVEST. It just made CODE RED. We are such hardcore weather enthusiasts we are looking at blobs of thunderstorms that NO ONE else cares about. I THOUGHT it was because we are weather ENTHUSIASTS...but maybe I was wrong....I guess it must be loads of fun to come on the weather enthusiast forum to post things such as this. I would really love to see moderator action...but I don't think it's worth it. I suppose if you feel the need to seriously post this....may as well let you have your cake and eat it to eh


Oh and btw, we KNOW it's your opinion. I'm not speaking plainly i'm just generalizing. Stop hiding behind the "IMO" wall. We are quite aware it's your opinion, thank you.

/End rant.

[KWT]

Agreed MiamiHurricanes10, this will probably end up being rather similar to Colin IMO, maybe a little longer lasting then that one first time round but the same general synoptics are still very much in play.

[TexasF6]

Seriously, I just want it to become a depression or nothing and then die off with no name. I do not want to revise my Big storms of 2010 picks!!!!!

[TexasF6]

I'm not being totally serious Weatherfreak. lol. I just picked Danielle and Fiona to be my "big impacting storms" this year. I am weathernerd enough to actually care about my list.

That thing will not become Danielle. It should not be named!!!! this is just my opinion of course!!!

Seriously, if you cannot provide your opinion with any reasonable or sound data or theory, why even bother posting? The NHC and EVERYONE else sees this organizing...you inexplicably see it dieing off? Please do yourself a favor and seem a little more sophisticated in your opinion.


I don't understand why people could POSSIBLY feel the need to downcast invests......I mean...it's an INVEST. It just made CODE RED. We are such hardcore weather enthusiasts we are looking at blobs of thunderstorms that NO ONE else cares about. I THOUGHT it was because we are weather ENTHUSIASTS...but maybe I was wrong....I guess it must be loads of fun to come on the weather enthusiast forum to post things such as this. I would really love to see moderator action...but I don't think it's worth it. I suppose if you feel the need to seriously post this....may as well let you have your cake and eat it to eh


Oh and btw, we KNOW it's your opinion. I'm not speaking plainly i'm just generalizing. Stop hiding behind the "IMO" wall. We are quite aware it's your opinion, thank you.

/End rant.