WPAC: Ex DIANMU

[supercane]

Also found from google an older storm2k post by met theavocado. See this link.

the trough is becoming less defined an more of a broad area of weak cyclonic turning with small vorticies forming around the periphery. This is leading to the possibility of a Monsoon Gyre formation in the West Pacific.

Hope these links help!

[Typhoon10]

Looking at the below link, appears to be a lot of cloud activity!

And if I am reading it right, the LPA to east of Phillippines appears to be pulling in cloud all the way from Vietnam.

How do we feel the next 7 days will pan out?

[Typhoon10]

I found this on HK Obversatory website which predict quite a powerful storm in 3 days time

http://www.weather.gov.hk/nwp/nwpsfcpp72e.htm

[supercane]

Very unlikely, as (1) there is currently not a well defined center from which a storm could arise and (2) large systems tend to be slow to consolidate (see Ike for an example). Thus while I am not familiar with HKO's Operational Regional Spectral Model (ORSM) to know its characteristics, the evolution to a 996-mb low in 24hr and 988-mb low in 36hr cannot be seriously believed, IMHO.

[phwxenthusiast]

a few models have hinted about that, albeit not as strong

[StormingB81]

WOW! looking at that link I guess me in Okinawa should look at this storm closely...even though it has it going just north of here we all know how storms can act.

[StormingB81]

looks like hong kongs has already changed it at 1004 now..it will prolly change 10 more times though...lol

[KWT]

Wow monster upper low moving westwards which is really helping to amplify the convection, probably a heck of a lot of shear about enter the W.portion of the WPAC from the looks of things.

[Typhoon Hunter]

HKO model should be taken with a punch of salt, it spins up phantom storms almost daily!

[KWT]

Take a look at even the IR yet alone the WV, makes the Atl.TUTT look pretty pitiful!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Good old CWB radar, a very useful asset! Upgraded to fair by JTWC, hats off to them for being first agency to even acknowledge its existence (NRL excluded).

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE
MONSOON GYRE LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 126.2E HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST
THREE HOURS. WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARDS TAIWAN AND MOVE IN THE
VICINITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AT 10-15 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[StormingB81]

I wonder where this little fellow wants to go

[Chacor]

As Taiwan isn't a WMO member, I'm not surprised no other agency acknowledges the CWB.

[StormingB81]

it looks like it is moving pretty quick though...

[supercane]

From NRL KML file:

Tropical Cyclone 96W

06 Aug 2010 1200Z
Location: 19.5 125.8
Winds: 20 knots
Central Pressure: 1006 hPa

JMA still focusing on low west of Philippines and not 96W:

WWJP25 RJTD 061200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 061200.<snip>
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 18N 116E WEST SLOWLY.
<snip>
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[supercane]

PAGASA also noted low:

Weather Advisory No. 01
FOR: LOW PRESSURE AREA
Issued at 11:00 a.m., 06 August 2010
The Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 590 km East of Extreme Northern Luzon (18.5°N 128.5°E). This weather system will bring occasional rains over the western sections of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

Strong to gale force wind is expected in those areas and the coastal waters will be rough to very rough with a wave height of 3.7 to 5.0 meters.

The next weather update will be incorporated in the regular public weather forecast to be issued at 5:00 pm today.

and states again in its 24-HOUR PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST
ISSUED AT : 5:00 PM 06 AUGUST 2010:

SYNOPSIS: AT 2:00 PM TODAY, LOW PRESSURE AREA (LPA) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA
AT 600 KM EAST OF NORTHERN LUZON (18.0°N 128.5°E)

No advisories thus far from PAGASA

[supercane]

96W NRL track map:

[theavocado]

Also found from google an older storm2k post by met theavocado. See this link.

the trough is becoming less defined an more of a broad area of weak cyclonic turning with small vorticies forming around the periphery. This is leading to the possibility of a Monsoon Gyre formation in the West Pacific.

Hope these links help!

I was just catching up on this topic, thinking to myself "I should post a link to my Gyre post from last year". You beat me to it.

I'm still on the fence in the particular instance. Right now we see a significant TUTT rolling in from the East and enchancing the upper-level outflow of the convergent region to the south of 96W. This is enchancing the convection and possibly making it look more Gyre like than it really is.

My thought right now is that the other cause of this patter might be the early stages of a reverse oriented monsoon trough, where the trough is still anchored over Luzon, but the eastern extent is closer to Iwo Jima than over the Marianas Islands and an extension of the Subtropical ridge will reach down to the south of the trough.

[KWT]

Thats a pretty impressive TUTT really from the loops I've been looking at...

[StormingB81]

JMA FINALLY has something up on it.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 20N 124E WEST SLOWLY.