205pm TPC DIscussion says new LLC forming

[drezee]

AT 1200 UTC A TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST MOVING W 15-20
KT FROM 23N81W TO 30N80W WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS ALONG THE
TROUGH JUST NW OF MIAMI AND ANOTHER IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AT
1700 UTC A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION W OF SARASOTA IS NEAR
26N83W...CLEARLY SHOWN BY SATELLITE AND RADAR. THIS AREA IS THE
FOCUS OF NEW CONVECTION AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING IN THAT AREA. FOR THE MOMENT THE
SYSTEM IS JUST A TROUGH WITH WEAK LOWS ALONG THE AXIS BUT THERE
ARE HINTS THAT A MORE WELL-DEFINED CENTER COULD BE FORMING TO
THE N. UPPER WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
ESPECIALLY FARTHER TO THE N AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE MIATWOAT FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

[drezee]

ALSO....

TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 16W
WITH AN 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N. THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES
AROUND THE LOW AND IN THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR FORECAST...
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE WATERS AND COMPUTER MODEL GENESIS
FORECASTS. CONVECTION IS INCREASING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 14W-21W.

[Guest]

Okay in that statement - are they saying the LLC might form more to the north then they were orginally thinking?

Where does everyone think the LLC will be?

[mf_dolphin]

West of Sarasota is my back yard! :o That could make it real interesting for the next couple of days. I still don't see any reason yet to doubt a S Texas or Mexico destination for our friend.

[Johnny]

I just got throuh reading that and yes, a LLC may more than likely be forming around 26N,83W. Orginally the original area of circulation was around 24.5N if I'm not mistaken. There has been a MLC at 26N which you can clearly see on radar. Now what they are saying is that this area will more than likely form an LLC so this is the area we need to watch now.

With this relocation, does this effect the current track????

[Guest]

Probably not Johnny.

[Stormsfury]

ALSO....

TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 16W
WITH AN 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N. THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES
AROUND THE LOW AND IN THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR FORECAST...
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE WATERS AND COMPUTER MODEL GENESIS
FORECASTS. CONVECTION IS INCREASING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 14W-21W.

rainstorm is gonna hate that discussion.

[wrkh99]

If LLC forms where I think it is then ...........................................................................................................................................



Ticka and Erika will hook up this weekened .

[Guest]

Women Gone Wild on Galveston Beach!!!! Can you see it now Erika Cane and Ticka1!!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Seems to be gathering up some steam. Maybe it won't be long b4 we actually get the first vortex data message from the recon plane on this system. It looks healthier than it did east of Florida. Current thinking of slow development over the gulf seems to be panning out and it could strengthen to a TD or TS Erika over the next day or two.

Jim

[Steve H.]

hey ticka, can i join the party

[bfez1]

Erika Cane on All My Children
and we all know she is "hell" on wheels.

[Guest]

Steve H. I'll let you run the camera OK!!!!!

[drezee]

279
WHXX01 KWBC 141954
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL912003) ON 20030814 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
030814 1800 030815 0600 030815 1800 030816 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.2N 83.4W 26.2N 87.1W 26.2N 90.8W 26.1N 94.2W
BAMM 26.2N 83.4W 26.3N 87.0W 26.4N 90.5W 26.5N 93.9W
A98E 26.2N 83.4W 26.0N 87.2W 25.6N 90.1W 24.6N 92.1W
LBAR 26.2N 83.4W 26.2N 87.5W 26.5N 91.8W 27.0N 95.9W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 61KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
030816 1800 030817 1800 030818 1800 030819 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.9N 97.5W 26.4N 102.7W 28.0N 106.0W 29.6N 108.6W
BAMM 26.4N 97.1W 26.9N 102.5W 28.4N 106.2W 29.7N 109.6W
A98E 23.8N 93.9W 22.0N 97.6W 21.3N 101.9W 21.8N 106.6W
LBAR 27.6N 99.8W 30.4N 104.7W 36.2N 104.5W 38.3N 100.3W
SHIP 69KTS 82KTS 81KTS 79KTS
DSHP 45KTS 29KTS 29KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.2N LONCUR = 83.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 26.1N LONM12 = 79.3W DIRM12 = 271DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 25.7N LONM24 = 76.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Steve H.]

Ticka1, this thing is winding up nicely. As SF pointed out , you see that band wrapping up from the SSW as it hit the GOM bathtub :o Look out western Gulf!! Stay safe....jeers!!

[Johnny]

I'm still bringing this thing into Texas because I'm an un-educated to do such a thing.

Yep, rapid intensification is now in process. Looks very nice.