ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[KWT]

It'll be interesting to see if the shear eases up full stop....

Recon will probably be key for deciding whether the NHC upgrades this one or not IMO...a strong LLC will be hard to ignore, at the moment its perfectly clear there is a LLC, it just depends on how defined it is.

[hurricaneCW]

There's some nice outflow to the east. I suspect we'll see another big burst over the center like we did yesterday and that will be more than enough for an upgrade. By the way, when is recon flying toward this system.

[KWT]

I think they are leaving in a couple of hours. I do think this system has a good shot at redevelopment...looks no worse then the likes of Danny last year that got upgraded from a similar looking position.

[wxman57]

Here are a couple McIDAS shots I just made. Clear LLC. Obs in the area confirm. Problem is that convection is down. I don't think the recon plane would find 35 kt winds right now. But shear will be decreasing in the next 24 hours, and I think it might make a 50kt TS before it passes Bermuda on Saturday morning.

[TheBurn]

[HURAKAN]

Danny, 2009, 1st infrared:



Ex-Colin:



Colin looks better than Danny and Danny was upgraded at that point.

[KWT]

The big question is will the NHC upgrade knowing the convection could be totally sheared away from the LLC in the next 6-12hrs...I'm really not sure but we will see!

[HURAKAN]

The big question is will the NHC upgrade knowing the convection could be totally sheared away from the LLC in the next 6-12hrs...I'm really not sure but we will see!

They may be more inclined to upgrade because tropical storm force winds will be impacting Bermuda later today or tonight.

[wxman57]

That would be tomorrow night for any impact on Bermuda. Probably doubtful it has TS winds now, but that should change in the next 12-24 hrs.

[curtadams]

Here are a couple McIDAS shots I just made. Clear LLC. Obs in the area confirm. Problem is that convection is down. I don't think the recon plane would find 35 kt winds right now. But shear will be decreasing in the next 24 hours, and I think it might make a 50kt TS before it passes Bermuda on Saturday morning.

The shear maps indicate greater shear right in front of the storm, so I think it's more likely the system will decouple in the next few hours. Further ahead is the low shear zone and I think redevelopment is very possible then.

There's some nice outflow to the east. I suspect we'll see another big burst over the center like we did yesterday and that will be more than enough for an upgrade. By the way, when is recon flying toward this system.

The convection is as over the center as it can be. Shear displaces the rising thunderstorms, so an outburst from the center reaches the upper atmosphere (and shows up on IR) some distance away. The visible MLC and LLCs are acting coupled at present (meaning they move together and not with the winds at their various levels) and that indicates the MLC and convection are coming from air rising from the LLC.

[HURAKAN]

I don't understand them sometimes, maybe they're waiting for RECON, but this system looks as upgradable as TD #3 was this year, as Danny, Erika and Henri last year.

[HURAKAN]

It looks better than Bonnie ever looked

[Hurricaneman]

looks like the clouds are east of the center right now due to the tutt

[Aric Dunn]

crazy how everyone disappears when a storm is a fish .. lol

[Riptide]

crazy how everyone disappears when a storm is a fish .. lol

Kind of lame eh? It is always interesting to watch a TC develop no matter where it may be. The Hurricane Hunters probably have fun photographing and flying into these systems.

[curtadams]

<snip images>
Colin looks better than Danny and Danny was upgraded at that point.

Danny had a much stronger LLC. You can see the low cloud spiral around Danny's LLC even on that IR4 image. Colin's LLC is only visible on imagery that shows low clouds better (vis, IR2).

I don't understand them sometimes, maybe they're waiting for RECON, but this system looks as upgradable as TD #3 was this year, as Danny, Erika and Henri last year.

It does seem that requirements change, but waiting for RECON (or other definitive data) is pretty common for the NHC if there's no immediate need for warnings. Right now we're talking about a possible mid-strength TS affecting Bermuda (a very storm-hardened place) - not so dangerous that a few hours will make much difference.

[tailgater]

It may take a while before T-storms start re firing near the center again, with most of inflow directed toward the convection to the SE.

[CrazyC83]

A Tropical Storm Watch would be needed for Bermuda probably if they upgraded it now. I don't see the need to rush when Recon is headed out there. If it was rapidly developing then probably.

[fci]

crazy how everyone disappears when a storm is a fish .. lol

Kind of lame eh? It is always interesting to watch a TC develop no matter where it may be. The Hurricane Hunters probably have fun photographing and flying into these systems.

Many are here to get the best information they can find to see the effects on their lives, where they live. So naturally, when a storm is out of their picture, interest wanes. It really is nothing to get critical of; itis not "lame"!
I suspect many are not here for the science and there is nothing wrong with that.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

I don't think there's any doubt about an LLC, so the only question is how strong.