Disturbance over the eastern Atantic

[SouthFloridawx]

No offense meant...

[clfenwi]

GFS develops a closed low at 42h and starts bringing it across the Atlantic. 120h:



Loop

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS looking like this is going to Danielle.

60 Hours


90 Hours


120 Hours

[Sanibel]

More monster black IR in the Atlantic ITCZ. I don't know if this is from global warming SST's boosting convection or what? All I can say is maybe this one is timed better for the turn-on of the season. Worth watching (and worrying about) at minimum. Maybe the rough synoptics will subside by the time this one gets to the formation areas.

[ConvergenceZone]

I can't tell by those maps, are they showing recurve?

[clfenwi]

I can't tell by those maps, are they showing recurve?

Model run hadn't gone far out enough when SouthFloridawx and I posted (and it's in the speculative time-frame), but the run has it going north through a split in the mid-Atlantic high. A through and through fish by that forecast.

168h/1week

[TwisterFanatic]

[Ivanhater]

Say hello to Danielle imo..Earl is behind her heels as well....

August is looking up to its name

[KWT]

THe GFS has been showing this system for wow....I don't know something like 20-25 runs now, I mean its been showing it even before Colin got going the first time round, so its been pretty keen on it developing...

Nothing at all to worry about with this one and probably nothing really to worry about for the enxt 2 weeks in terms of landfall, great big weaknesses out in the Atlantic look the story.

[rockyman]

Another view:

[KWT]

It looks like a classic disturbance, it'll take a little while to rev up probably but I suspect it gets invested today...its gotta really!

I think it may still have troubles down the line from the TUTT, but before then no reason it can't be a hurricane.

[Gustywind]

No offense meant...

Thanks i appreciate just the words were a time

[hurricaneCW]

Since the Bermuda High is so weak, what happens if a disturbance ends up in the Caribbean. Will it get sucked northwards due to all the troughs in the West Atlantic? This one will probably take several days to develop, but it eventually will.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Thursday, August 5, 2010 650 am EDT/550 am CDT

Discussion
Elsewhere In The Tropical Atlantic:
There is quite a bit going on in the tropical Atlantic, besides Colin, so let’s take a look:

Of more interest is what’s going on in the eastern Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. I am closely watching a very robust tropical disturbance between 35 and 40 West Longitude and I fully expect that this will develop further over the coming days and will go out on a limb and say that this will likely be named Danielle by early next week, if not sooner.

Wind shear values over this system is pretty low. In addition, water vapor imagery indicates that this is located in a moist environment. The GFS model has been latching onto this system for at least several days now and forecasts that this will be fully developed by late this weekend. All indications are that this system will track west-northwest over the next several days, however, recurvature out into the open Atlantic seems likely next week since the high pressure system out there is currently fairly weak. With that said, this is still several days away that it could recurve and this could change between now and then. At this point I am giving this system a moderate to high chance of developing into Tropical Storm Danielle by early next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Friday morning.

[KWT]

Yeah more then likely it would Hurricanecw, but there is little chance of it getting to the Caribbean, the only way it doesn't lift out is if it doesn't develop at all, even weak development would be enough for it to feel the weakness to the north.

I do note the SAL air is to the north still...

ps, I think we will get a NS out of this one...

[Gustywind]

Edited by CM. No need to quote yourself a minute after you made the original post.

[Gustywind]

Very long paragrah concerning the ITCZ...no doubts with all that toon of convection within.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 051044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS FROM 21N29W TO 7N32W MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS TO THE SW OF AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR THE MAURITANIA/WESTERN SAHARA. CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 10N18W 14N22W 10N40W 6N54W
ACROSS E VENEZUELA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N65W THEN 13N75W
INTO THE E PACIFIC ACROSS S COSTA RICA. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM THE COAST
OF AFRICA TO 18W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-24W...
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-39W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-15N BETWEEN 28W-30W...COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM ALONG S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
32N-42N...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-19W...
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-24W...FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
40W-43W...WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W-47W...AND
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

[cycloneye]

No mention on the 8 AM TWO.

[KWT]

The GFS lifts this one very quickly indeed, upto 20N in 48hrs, thats a bit too quick IMO!

I think the chances of recurve are very high, I mean probably somewhere about 90-95% chance...the only chance it doesn't recurve is if it doesn't develop till about 55-60W.....not impossible but I suspect it will occur before then.

Surprised there isn't no mention just yet but I'm guessing they think its still too attached to the ITCZ.

[OURAGAN]

it's beginning to cranking up betwen 35 and 40 W