What I see.....in the GOM

[Guest]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Look at the pattern in the GOM. I don't see how
it is going to change to sending systems south or to the west in the next 24
hours. This 91L is already dancing in the GOM from this sat. Will be
making landfall by tomorrow afternoon.

But then I'm no expert and this will probably be shot to smithereens.

[vbhoutex]

What this sat loop doesn't show is the high builiding in from the N that will continue to keep this on a Westerly course. It is easy to make the assumptions you have made looking at a sat loop. That is why we use the model progs and surface maps that show locations of and progs for other weather systems that are affecting and can affect the disturbances we track, tropical or otherwise. If I didn't know better and took a look at the sat loop you provided, I would say you are right on.

[Guest]

Lets hope all the pieces of the puzzles everyone is saying is going to happens - happens - NWS is monitoring. The city I work for is closely monitoring - I guess what I am saying is NOT everyone is buying this scenario - if I'm wrong - i'm wrong - at least I will own up to the fact.

[Suzi Q]

Don't shoot me for quoting skywarn again but feel it should be examined as well:

THE OTHER BIG ISSUE IS THE CONVECTION OVER FL. ON SATELLITE IT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION. CIRCULATION QUITE EVIDENT IN 700-500 MB UA. LATEST RADAR FROM FLORIDA INDICATING THE LOWER CIRCULATION OFF THE WEST COAST AT 1430Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN RACING THIS SYSTEM WEST AT
AROUND 20 MPH...A LITTLE SLOWER AROUND 18 MPH WITH THE 06Z RUNS.

SYSTEM MOVING OUT FROM UNDER THE MUCH HIGHER PRESSURE FIELD AND INTO WARM GULF WATERS. CONCERNED THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THE LOWER PRESSURES TOO FAR SOUTH AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION COULD ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP CENTER NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.

STAY TUNED THIS COULD GET INTERESTING.

This is an exact quote.

[southerngale]

Well, I see what you mean ticka. But like David said, we can't see the high from the sat. loop. I'm with you though...I looked at it a little while ago and said I don't see how this thing is going to Mexico!

[Johnny]

I read my forecast for the Houston/Galveston area on a daily basis from the Texas Skywarn homepage. I have paid attention to see how accurate they are with there forecast. With Claudette they basically went off what NHC was forecasting...almost to the T. Other than that they are pretty darn good on there forecasting, espcially severe weather. THis system is moving very quickly as you can see. I don't think it's gonna be a taco storm. Also, I don't think it will get too strong. Any thoughts?

[Guest]

I don't think it will ever make TD status. Moving too fast and not all the elements there to make it any stronger.