HOU/GAL - taken from Katdaddy on another board...

[Guest]

HOU-GAL AFD...Wow! More N?? by KatDaddy THE OTHER BIG ISSUE IS THE CONVECTION OVER FL. ON SATELLITE IT LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION. CIRCULATION QUITE EVIDENT IN 700-500
MB UA. LATEST RADAR FROM FLORIDA INDICATING THE LOWER CIRCULATION OFF
THE WEST COAST AT 1430Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN RACING THIS SYSTEM WEST AT
AROUND 20 MPH...A LITTLE SLOWER AROUND 18 MPH WITH THE 06Z RUNS.
SYSTEM MOVING OUT FROM UNDER THE MUCH HIGHER PRESSURE FIELD AND INTO
WARM GULF WATERS. CONCERNED THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THE
LOWER PRESSURES TOO FAR SOUTH AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION COULD
ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP CENTER NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
STAY TUNED THIS COULD GET INTERESTING.



NWS sure isn't certain its flying to mexico....why would they put this out if deep south texas was such a sure bet!!!!

[Stormsfury]

I think Air Force Met has a good response for that on another thread (ATTN: All GOMERS, I think)

SF

[Guest]

I read his post. If I remember correctly he said Claudette was going to Corpus or further west.....but Claudette ended up being less than 100 miles from where he lives.

The models might be right - but again - I saw proof this year they weren't. With landfall less than 6 hours out - that's when I would say they get accurate.