ATTN: All GOMers
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ATTN: All GOMers
Ok, here's the deal...since 91L is struggling so hard to get that ever famous west wind...I think we can help it out a bit. At...let's say 10:30am CDT/11:30am EDT, everyone in the WESTERN GULF will BLOW TOWARD the system really hard. Everyone in the EASTERN GULF will face the storm and SUCK really hard. Between the BLOWING and SUCKING (minds OUT of the gutter people!!), we should be able to create a weak west wind and voila! TS Erika.
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GulfBreezer
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Ok, for clarification, when I say WESTERN GULF, I mean Texas and LA. When I say EASTERN GULF, I mean central-southern florida. If we get blowing and sucking from the central GOMers, it will defeat the purpose and only serve to give 91L more northerly or southerly winds. Not what we want. So everyone in MS, AL, and the Florida panhandle, just sit and watch.
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Stormsfury
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Re: ATTN: All GOMers
OtherHD wrote:Ok, here's the deal...since 91L is struggling so hard to get that ever famous west wind...I think we can help it out a bit. At...let's say 10:30am CDT/11:30am EDT, everyone in the WESTERN GULF will BLOW TOWARD the system really hard. Everyone in the EASTERN GULF will face the storm and SUCK really hard. Between the BLOWING and SUCKING (minds OUT of the gutter people!!), we should be able to create a weak west wind and voila! TS Erika.
ROTFLMAO
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GalvestonDuck
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ameriwx2003
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Excerpt form Houston/Galveston AFD:
THE OTHER BIG ISSUE IS THE CONVECTION OVER FL. ON SATELLITE IT LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION. CIRCULATION QUITE EVIDENT IN 700-500
MB UA. LATEST RADAR FROM FLORIDA INDICATING THE LOWER CIRCULATION OFF
THE WEST COAST AT 1430Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN RACING THIS SYSTEM WEST AT
AROUND 20 MPH...A LITTLE SLOWER AROUND 18 MPH WITH THE 06Z RUNS.
SYSTEM MOVING OUT FROM UNDER THE MUCH HIGHER PRESSURE FIELD AND INTO
WARM GULF WATERS. CONCERNED THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THE
LOWER PRESSURES TOO FAR SOUTH AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION COULD
ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP CENTER NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
STAY TUNED THIS COULD GET INTERESTING.
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tx/discussion.html
We can't let you off the hook that easy Ticka:):):)
THE OTHER BIG ISSUE IS THE CONVECTION OVER FL. ON SATELLITE IT LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION. CIRCULATION QUITE EVIDENT IN 700-500
MB UA. LATEST RADAR FROM FLORIDA INDICATING THE LOWER CIRCULATION OFF
THE WEST COAST AT 1430Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN RACING THIS SYSTEM WEST AT
AROUND 20 MPH...A LITTLE SLOWER AROUND 18 MPH WITH THE 06Z RUNS.
SYSTEM MOVING OUT FROM UNDER THE MUCH HIGHER PRESSURE FIELD AND INTO
WARM GULF WATERS. CONCERNED THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THE
LOWER PRESSURES TOO FAR SOUTH AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION COULD
ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP CENTER NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
STAY TUNED THIS COULD GET INTERESTING.
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tx/discussion.html
We can't let you off the hook that easy Ticka:):):)
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Portastorm
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Yes ... I'm humored by all of my SE Texas friends who are posting "it won't come here."
How can anyone seriously speculate on a system that models haven't YET properly initialized?
Three days out, everyone was sure Claudette would be a "taco storm."
Tell that to the folks in Port Aransas, who are still cleaning up from last month's hurricane.
Anyone in the Gulf should closely watch this system.
Michael (Portastorm)
How can anyone seriously speculate on a system that models haven't YET properly initialized?
Three days out, everyone was sure Claudette would be a "taco storm."
Tell that to the folks in Port Aransas, who are still cleaning up from last month's hurricane.
Anyone in the Gulf should closely watch this system.
Michael (Portastorm)
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Air Force Met
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You don't need the storm to be initialized correctly in some cases to know where it is going...or in this case...where it isn't going. In this case, there is a huge high pressure system sitting over north Texas in the next 2-5 days. Steering flow around it is west to west-southwest. There also isn't an upper low to the west that might want to stear the system more to the north of west. Plus...when ALL the models show a west through southwest motion and onloy 60-72 hours out...it's a pretty good bet it isn't coming north.
So....it really doesn't matter if it forms a LLC at 27N...or 24N...the steering flow will push it west and maybe even southwest at the end of the period. So...southeast Texas is pretty safe. The closest thing that might happen is if it forms more to the north...then SE TX may get a band or two as it passes to the south and comes inland near south TX.
So....it really doesn't matter if it forms a LLC at 27N...or 24N...the steering flow will push it west and maybe even southwest at the end of the period. So...southeast Texas is pretty safe. The closest thing that might happen is if it forms more to the north...then SE TX may get a band or two as it passes to the south and comes inland near south TX.
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Air Force Met
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Portastorm
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Nelson, if you want to bet on models that don't even have a system accurately initialized, you go boy ..... as for me, I will wait a bit before I start making proclamations about this system going here or there.
Sure we all have an idea that "somewhere" in the western GOM is the likely destination. But if I'm on the SE Texas coast, I wouldn't be planning on a barbecue for this weekend just yet.
All I suggesting is that the models aren't all that accurate this far out.
Then again, you appear to be a professional met and I'm simply a weather weenie. We shall see.
Sure we all have an idea that "somewhere" in the western GOM is the likely destination. But if I'm on the SE Texas coast, I wouldn't be planning on a barbecue for this weekend just yet.
All I suggesting is that the models aren't all that accurate this far out.
Then again, you appear to be a professional met and I'm simply a weather weenie. We shall see.
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Stormsfury
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Re: ATTN: All GOMers
OtherHD wrote:Ok, here's the deal...since 91L is struggling so hard to get that ever famous west wind...I think we can help it out a bit. At...let's say 10:30am CDT/11:30am EDT, everyone in the WESTERN GULF will BLOW TOWARD the system really hard. Everyone in the EASTERN GULF will face the storm and SUCK really hard. Between the BLOWING and SUCKING (minds OUT of the gutter people!!), we should be able to create a weak west wind and voila! TS Erika.
Hey OtherHD ... it'd musta worked ... Dry Tortugas has a NW wind .... at 3 kts.
SF
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