ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

It's seems to be moving very slowly right now. Is it possible that it could remain moving very slowly and possible miss the weakness that it won't recurve so quickly.

[srainhoutx]

If I recall correctly, the NHC mentioned in the Advisories that a slow down was expected as this feature neared the Leewards.

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

It's seems to be moving very slowly right now. Is it possible that it could remain moving very slowly and possible miss the weakness that it won't recurve so quickly.

Nah its pretty much certain this will scoop up, what your seeing is partly the fact its finally escaping the strong low level surge and also the fact that the westerly shear is constantly trying to blow the convection away...

No doubt its slowed though, probably will move increasingly northwards from now on.

Redevelopment is looking increasingly likely as well now, esp once it starts to lift up to the north, going to be interesting to see how strong it gets...I'll go for 55kts right now.

[hurricaneCW]

Ok no problem, let's just see what Colin will do while at sea, it might even affect Bermuda. It's only August 4. I'm hoping for a tropical storm up here this season either from a weakening hurricane or from a near impact. Probably have to wait until September for a chance to see something like that.

[Dean4Storms]

I think they need to go 60% with Colin's remnants, no way this should stay 20% for the next 48 hours!

[srainhoutx]

[ozonepete]

Looks like we'll have a real TS Colin by this time tomorrow or more likely on Friday. Could even be a hurricane over the weekend. Good news is that it looks like it'll pass between Bermuda and the East U.S. Coast.

I agree. It's really starting to wind up because it's losing the SE to NW elongation and starting to get symmetry.

[ozonepete]

If I recall correctly, the NHC mentioned in the Advisories that a slow down was expected as this feature neared the Leewards.

A slowdown almost always occurs as a TC enters a recurve. Due to conservation of angular momentum, it slows down going into a curve and accelerates out of it. So yeah, it should be slowing down if it hasn't already.

[TwisterFanatic]

[KWT]

Oh this will probably be a Code red soon I'd imagine, its looking very good and I suspect we may have not just TD Colin but TS Colin in the next 12-18hrs...unless the shear hits it harder again.

Models doing a good job with this one it has to be said!

[artist]

Oh this will probably be a Code red soon I'd imagine, its looking very good and I suspect we may have not just TD Colin but TS Colin in the next 12-18hrs...unless the shear hits it harder again.

Models doing a good job with this one it has to be said!

seems recon is on their way, just found obs4 for this flight. Can you double check it for me?

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

ABNT20 KNHC 042338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SOME DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE WAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[thetruesms]

Well, what a difference a good convective blowup makes, amirite? Through the last visible, it looked pretty clearly to still be a sharp wave axis, but it's made some good progress today. I don't know that the next recon flight will find something interesting, but I think we've got at least a decent shot tomorrow afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

The Recon flight will tell the tale I think. There MIGHT be an LLC under that blob, but certainly no guarantee.

[sunnyday]

How high is the belief that this "storm" will go between Bermuda and the East coast? Is there no likelihood that it will go toward S Fl? (friends are there now)

[SootyTern]

Seems like the ULL is retreating to the north a bit and is no longer directly in the path of the storm.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[AJC3]

How high is the belief that this "storm" will go between Bermuda and the East coast? Is there no likelihood that it will go toward S Fl? (friends are there now)

There just won't be any sort of ridging to drive it that far westward. A pretty large col (breach) in between the SE CONUS and Bermuda ridges has been consistently forecast to develop and widen to between about 65/70W and 80W. Whatever Colin becomes should continue to turn northward around the west side of the Bermuda ridge.

[Ivanhater]

This looks to have a good shot at becoming a hurricane. Model guidance is in really good agreement in strengthening Colin...

[cycloneye]

Hmmm, the wind directions here in San Juan have been all over the place since this afternoon, the latest from the NW.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TJSJ.html

2010.08.04 2356 UTC
Wind from the NW (320 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 84.0 F (28.9 C)
Dew Point 75.9 F (24.4 C)
Relative Humidity 76%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.89 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
Pressure tendency 0.03 inches (1.1 hPa) higher than three hours ago