ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[JonathanBelles]

What effects if any will tonights solar storm have on this and 92L and the observations of each? I know there is a thread on this, but it isnt recieving much attention. I have no knowledge what so ever in this area.

Also, there will be no personal forecast tonight for either system, but there will be one tomorrow.

[sunnyday]

If Colin regenerates in 120 hours or so, will the forecast track change greatly (or at all)?

[boca]

If Colon regenerates it will move west due to the low level flow not at the upper levels so if it develops further west we have to be concerned about it.

[HURAKAN]

If Colon regenerates it will move west due to the low level flow not at the upper levels so if it develops further west we have to be concerned about it.

I think he's a pain in the intestine, not the Colon!!! lol

[Gustywind]

If Colon regenerates it will move west due to the low level flow not at the upper levels so if it develops further west we have to be concerned about it.

Say that too Willie Colon , he will provide you some of its best soneo con su trombon La Murga de Panama?
Off topic http://www.williecolon.com/

[Cyclenall]

Maybe Jack (Beven) just made a mistake on the classification at hour 120? Easy to do. It would be like the NHC forecasting a depression to develop from a tropical wave 5 days in the future.

Nah. My impression of Jack is that he would be more careful than that. Bold call though. I'll tip my hat to FSU for an entire day if he gets this one.

Yeah, I know Jack. See him often at conventions/AMS meetings. Great meteorologist. It's just so strange to set that 120hr point to TD vs. Post-tropical.

Like others have pointed out, that was definitely not a mistake. It's the first time I have seen a NHC advisory/discussion end the system but then officially have a "Tropical Cyclone" forecast at the end. Is there any other examples where they have not only pointed out regeneration in the discussion, but forecast a TD at whatever point in the future?

[boca]

If Colon regenerates it will move west due to the low level flow not at the upper levels so if it develops further west we have to be concerned about it.

I think he's a pain in the intestine, not the Colon!!! lol

Sorryn meant Colin.LOL

[Gustywind]

[ConvergenceZone]

If Colon regenerates it will move west due to the low level flow not at the upper levels so if it develops further west we have to be concerned about it.

I think he's a pain in the intestine, not the Colon!!! lol

Sorryn meant Colin.LOL

hehe, so glad I'm not the only one that's made that 'colon' mistake....

[HURAKAN]

If Colon regenerates it will move west due to the low level flow not at the upper levels so if it develops further west we have to be concerned about it.

I think he's a pain in the intestine, not the Colon!!! lol

Sorryn meant Colin.LOL

I know, even before it was born, people were already calling it Colon!!!

[chzzdekr81]

Well the "I" is right by the "O".

[Tropics Guy]

Colin is making a comeback, new convection popping near the old LLC, maybe the fat lady hasn't sung yet..................

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

TG

[Hugo1989]

He started to tell us something.

[year_2005]

Tropics Guy: it does not look like the convection has increased all that much around the dying storm. I dont personally think it is indicative of the storm reorganizing.
Well neither did I expect the storm to downgrade suddenly today so i could be wrong....
Btw if it does reform , will it still be called Colin? what has to happen to it to receive a new identity? does anyone know?








THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST, I AM NOT A CERTIFIED METEOROLOGIST

[RL3AO]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'd be surprised if it doesn't redevelop. In fact since its weakened so much, it could even increase the threat to land.

[hurricaneCW]

It still has a day to reorganize before it hits the heavy shear. As we all know, Colin fell apart due to its fast forward motion on the edge of a Sal surge. Well it's beginning to slow down a bit and it's moving away from the Sal. Still, it won't really matter until 4 days from now.

[year_2005]

what has to happen to the storm to receive a new identity?

[Tropics Guy]

Tropics Guy: it does not look like the convection has increased all that much around the dying storm. I dont personally think it is indicative of the storm reorganizing.
Well neither did I expect the storm to downgrade suddenly today so i could be wrong....
Btw if it does reform , will it still be called Colin? what has to happen to it to receive a new identity? does anyone know?

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST, I AM NOT A CERTIFIED METEOROLOGIST

If it does regenerate from the same remnant low it would still be named Colin. The NHC does forecast possible regeneration into a 30 kt TD again in their 120hr forecast from their last advisory written on Colin.

TG

[AdamFirst]

what has to happen to the storm to receive a new identity?

I believe it has to completely dissolve...no remaining trace of any circulation, low or mid-level.

[cycloneye]

Showing some signs of life?