ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[StormClouds63]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg


Look at that massive SAL outbreak being caused by that strong high pressure.


If Danielle doesn't form in the Caribbean we may be seeing a lull of activity very soon.

I didn't realize that same high pressure is the reason for the big SAL outbreak ... I see the clockwise rotation. More dry, stable air in the eastern/central Atlantic. Instead of a birthplace for tropical systems, it's more like a graveyard. Maybe it is the Caribbean or nothing for the next 1-2 weeks.

[hurricaneCW]

They shouldn't even bother downgrading it to a TD, just write up the final advisory and move on. Right now, it just looks like a sheared wave axis. We've already seen so many of them in this "hyperactive" season.

[Ivanhater]

[cheezyWXguy]

Look at that massive SAL outbreak being caused by that strong high pressure.


If Danielle doesn't form in the Caribbean we may be seeing a lull of activity very soon.

I didn't realize that same high pressure is the reason for the big SAL outbreak ... I see the clockwise rotation. More dry, stable air in the eastern/central Atlantic. Instead of a birthplace for tropical systems, it's more like a graveyard. Maybe it is the Caribbean or nothing for the next 1-2 weeks.

that sal isnt even very strong. theres just a lot of weak sal. Look at the key at the bottom, yellow=weak. Its not exactly favorable, but its not a graveyard. Colin is probably on its deathbed tho, but with such a small weak storm, even the slightest problem with the environment is going to hinder it.

[wxman57]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/1KMSRVIS/2010AL04_1KMSRVIS_201008031945.GIF

Yep, that's it. I measure a 2.5 hr movement toward 295 deg at 29 mph.

[hurricaneCW]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg


Look at that massive SAL outbreak being caused by that strong high pressure.


If Danielle doesn't form in the Caribbean we may be seeing a lull of activity very soon.

I didn't realize that same high pressure is the reason for the big SAL outbreak ... I see the clockwise rotation. More dry, stable air in the eastern/central Atlantic. Instead of a birthplace for tropical systems, it's more like a graveyard. Maybe it is the Caribbean or nothing for the next 1-2 weeks.

We're going to running out of time every time someone says "just 2 more weeks". Saying that was okay in July, but it will be past mid August by then or the so called active part of the season. I'm not seeing any indications of a more favorable Atlantic.

[KWT]

Hurricanecw, see my post in the other forum, all I'll say is whilst that TUTT is an issue, I'm worried that constant SAL outbreaks will force storms to form further west and if an east coast trough is in place, that means a higher risk down the line for just about all parts of the E.coastal states down through to the cAribbean.

Anyway its interesting to see this one struggling as was expected and yet the models do seem to somewhat strengthen it in 60hrs or so, probably will open up to a wave but watch it down the line IMO...rather similar track to possibly Bonnie if it stays weak for long enough.

[cheezyWXguy]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg


Look at that massive SAL outbreak being caused by that strong high pressure.


If Danielle doesn't form in the Caribbean we may be seeing a lull of activity very soon.

I didn't realize that same high pressure is the reason for the big SAL outbreak ... I see the clockwise rotation. More dry, stable air in the eastern/central Atlantic. Instead of a birthplace for tropical systems, it's more like a graveyard. Maybe it is the Caribbean or nothing for the next 1-2 weeks.

We're going to running out of time every time someone says "just 2 more weeks". Saying that was okay in July, but it will be past mid August by then or the so called active part of the season. I'm not seeing any indications of a more favorable Atlantic.

just wait.

[wxman57]

We're going to running out of time every time someone says "just 2 more weeks". Saying that was okay in July, but it will be past mid August by then or the so called active part of the season. I'm not seeing any indications of a more favorable Atlantic.

That's a good thing, right? Unfortunately, things can change quite quickly out there.

[AdamFirst]

We're going to running out of time every time someone says "just 2 more weeks". Saying that was okay in July, but it will be past mid August by then or the so called active part of the season. I'm not seeing any indications of a more favorable Atlantic.

I thought early September is the teeth of the season.

[RL3AO]

I'm not seeing any indications of a more favorable Atlantic.

I am. ULLs are getting further north. Pressures are lower in the Caribbean. MJO is about to become positive. Easterlies are forecasted to weaken over the next few days.

[Brent]

We're going to running out of time every time someone says "just 2 more weeks". Saying that was okay in July, but it will be past mid August by then or the so called active part of the season. I'm not seeing any indications of a more favorable Atlantic.

just wait.[/quote]

Been hearing that for weeks, still waiting...

[HURAKAN]

last advisory!!!

[KWT]

This system is just racing, this is a classic example of what happens when a system is caught up by a large SAL surge.

I do think however chances are decent down the line for redevelopment, the models all seem to strengthen the system in the Bahamas region...also lets not forget an open wave will probably not move very much out of the W/WNW set-up its currently in.

[RL3AO]

NHC is forecasting redevelopment. I've never seen that before.

[HURAKAN]

NHC is forecasting redevelopment. I've never seen that before.

me neither!

[HurrMark]

I can't say I've ever seen this before:

INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.8N 53.8W 35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W 30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[shortwave]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... _common+12
hard to see a favorable evolving envirenment ahead of what remains of colin...
That ULL especially.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm not seeing any indications of a more favorable Atlantic.

I am. ULLs are getting further north. Pressures are lower in the Caribbean. MJO is about to become positive. Easterlies are forecasted to weaken over the next few days.

The pressures have been low since June, the MJO is uncertain, the Azores high should remain strong. If we do get additional activity in the next 2 weeks, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean that would threaten Central America and Mexico. I guess this is good if you don't want an above average hurricane season, but it would still be nice to see something worth observing that's harmless of course. I wonder what the next 2-3 weeks will bring.

[Aric Dunn]

Also the convection building to the NW is not directly associated with Colin.. however it provide a better assessment of the environment ahead of colin.. clearly some more moisture exists and better divergence aloft although its a very narrow area it is possible to see a slight improvement especially if it were to slow down some..

These are excellent and important points. Colin's weak (open?) circulation is indeed no longer seriously capable of producing significant convection, compared to what is occurring with the larger synoptic scale lift on the divergent east side of the large upper trough to it's NW. Until the environment gets better for Colin (or, more likely, what will be it's remnants), I think we're probably back to looking for signs of a center regenerating along a wave axis for the next few days.

yeah it is not out of the question to see a different or relocation farther north in that area which would be rather interesting....