ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Gustywind]

[hurricaneCW]

I think the LLC or center is around 15N 52W, I've been looping the visible and it's pretty evident that's where the center is.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031746
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS OF VENEZUELA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Colin's center

[x-y-no]

Wind at station 41040 (14.477 N 53.008 W) was still E at under 8 knots at 16:50gmt, but pressure had fallen 1.8mb in the last couple of hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Colin's center

yep and tiny little swirl ...

[Blown Away]

Beat me to it Hurakan!! It appears a little north of the NHC track.

[Tropics Guy]

Almost looks like he's decoupled, the LLC is out ahead of the MLC, which is apparent on the latest visibles.

TG

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, I wonder if it will be downgraded to a depression later today? Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[Frank2]

Between TD2, TD3/Bonnie and TD4/Colin, all three together might equal one TS:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

not that I'm complaining (lol)...

Frank

P.S. Look for the NHC to downgrade this to a TD at 5 (IMHO)...

[HURAKAN]

LOL

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2010 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 14:22:18 N Lon : 50:17:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -31.1C Cloud Region Temp : -41.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[ConvergenceZone]

Between TD2, TD3/Bonnie and TD4/Colin, all three together might equal one TS:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

not that I'm complaining (lol)...

Frank

P.S. Look for the NHC to downgrade this to a TD at 5 (IMHO)...

Hehe, good point you make there Frank. So far this year has been the year of the weak storms....What I was really hoping Colin would do is develop and ramp up to a cat 3 or 4, and then track up between Burmuda and the east coast. This would be enough to raise excitement and follow a long tracker, but due to it's current track, since Burmuda would still be in danger, I'm glad the cat 3/4 scenerio didn't happen....


I know most everyone on here is saying that the middle of August is when the tropics are going to start to go crazy. Okay, we'll see......

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT 03/1500 UTC IS NEAR
14.2N 49.5W...MOVING WESTWARD 21 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 15N51W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO WERE FROM
15N TO 17N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN
THIS AREA HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
COLIN. THE CENTER OF COLIN SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...
55 KM FROM THE CENTER.


$$
MT

[SootyTern]

Curious what the line of building convection to the NW of 'Colin' is about; it seems to be heading right towards the TUTT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[wxman57]

Crosshairs indicate an extrapolated "center" from NHC's last forecast. Buoy to the WSW indicates no LLC. I can see a possible weak MLC where the crosshairs are, but I think it's clear we don't have a closed circulation and haven't had one all day. Colin appeared to reach its peak yesterday, and I'm not sure that there was an LLC then, either. Probably a good argument against upgrading such questionable systems out of recon range.

[Category 5]

Almost looks like its shearing ITSELF. Cyclosuicide as I call it.

[HurrMark]

Curious what the line of building convection to the NW of 'Colin' is about; it seems to be heading right towards the TUTT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

That area looks more impressive than Colin at this point.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080318, , BEST, 0, 154N, 524W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Left at 35kts??

[wxman57]

18z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080318, , BEST, 0, 154N, 524W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Left at 35kts??

That would put a "center" due north of the buoy with the east wind. No support for an LLC, then. One thing I do see is a tiny swirl in the low-level clouds in that are. Just a small eddy. It's 70 miles NE of the buoy and the swirl is too tiny to extend that far away. Such swirls are common in decaying systems.

[RL3AO]

Curious what the line of building convection to the NW of 'Colin' is about; it seems to be heading right towards the TUTT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Its a trough thats north of Colin.