ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

#641 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:01 pm

I'm just failing to see it currently gaining as much latitude as most of those models depict it doing. The forward speed and dry air may just keep it in check which in turn could keep it on a more westerly trajectory, at least in the short term.

#642 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:11 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Just what we need, a Cat 3 in the Gulf!!

...and look at where it's projected to hit! :eek:

#643 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:12 pm

It would not suprise me to see a fairly big model change on this in the 24 hours.

#644 Postby **supercane** » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:14 pm

515
WHXX01 KWBC 030105
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0105 UTC TUE AUG 3 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042010) 20100803 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100803 0000 100803 1200 100804 0000 100804 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 44.1W 14.7N 48.0W 16.3N 52.0W 18.0N 56.1W
BAMD 13.4N 44.1W 14.4N 47.2W 15.5N 50.2W 16.6N 53.1W
BAMM 13.4N 44.1W 14.6N 47.6W 16.1N 51.2W 17.7N 54.7W
LBAR 13.4N 44.1W 14.5N 47.6W 15.7N 51.2W 16.9N 54.6W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100805 0000 100806 0000 100807 0000 100808 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.0N 59.7W 23.3N 65.5W 25.9N 68.8W 28.5N 70.8W
BAMD 17.8N 55.7W 19.7N 59.0W 20.0N 60.9W 20.0N 63.5W
BAMM 19.5N 57.6W 22.6N 61.6W 24.4N 64.1W 26.2N 67.0W
LBAR 18.2N 57.6W 20.5N 62.4W 23.4N 64.8W 27.2N 70.5W
SHIP 53KTS 58KTS 60KTS 62KTS
DSHP 53KTS 58KTS 60KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 44.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 38.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Source: https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/pg_grp_sfwmd_weather/pg_sfwmd_weather_hurricanetropical?_piref2854_19644918_2854_19644915_19644915.tabstring=tab2202232&_piref2854_19644918_2854_19644915_19644915-2854_19644937_2854_19644920_19644936.tabstring=tab2200108

CYCLONE MIKE · #645 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:17 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I'm just failing to see it currently gaining as much latitude as most of those models depict it doing. The forward speed and dry air may just keep it in check which in turn could keep it on a more westerly trajectory, at least in the short term.

I think in the longer as well. Thinking td4 is going to get a good ole fashioned buzz cut in a couple of days that will leave whatever llc is left caught in the low level flow tracking westward towards the ne LA's and southern Bahamas.

SeminoleWind · #646 Postby **SeminoleWind** » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 030038 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0038 UTC TUE AUG 3 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042010) 20100803 0000 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100803 0000 100803 1200 100804 0000 100804 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 13.4N 44.1W 14.7N 48.0W 16.3N 52.0W 18.0N 56.1W BAMD 13.4N 44.1W 14.4N 47.2W 15.5N 50.2W 16.6N 53.1W BAMM 13.4N 44.1W 14.6N 47.6W 16.1N 51.2W 17.7N 54.7W LBAR 13.4N 44.1W 14.5N 47.6W 15.7N 51.2W 16.9N 54.6W SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 47KTS DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 47KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100805 0000 100806 0000 100807 0000 100808 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 20.0N 59.7W 23.3N 65.5W 25.9N 68.8W 28.5N 70.8W BAMD 17.8N 55.7W 19.7N 59.0W 20.0N 60.9W 20.0N 63.5W BAMM 19.5N 57.6W 22.6N 61.6W 24.4N 64.1W 26.2N 67.0W LBAR 18.2N 57.6W 20.5N 62.4W 23.4N 64.8W 27.2N 70.5W SHIP 53KTS 58KTS 60KTS 62KTS DSHP 53KTS 58KTS 60KTS 62KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 44.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 15KT LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 38.0W WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

anyone notice the TVCN.
thats the one the NHC leans on and it has TD/4 or Collin shooting back SW.

vacanechaser · #647 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:28 pm

SeminoleWind wrote:
cycloneye wrote:00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 030038 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0038 UTC TUE AUG 3 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042010) 20100803 0000 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100803 0000 100803 1200 100804 0000 100804 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 13.4N 44.1W 14.7N 48.0W 16.3N 52.0W 18.0N 56.1W BAMD 13.4N 44.1W 14.4N 47.2W 15.5N 50.2W 16.6N 53.1W BAMM 13.4N 44.1W 14.6N 47.6W 16.1N 51.2W 17.7N 54.7W LBAR 13.4N 44.1W 14.5N 47.6W 15.7N 51.2W 16.9N 54.6W SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 47KTS DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 47KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100805 0000 100806 0000 100807 0000 100808 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 20.0N 59.7W 23.3N 65.5W 25.9N 68.8W 28.5N 70.8W BAMD 17.8N 55.7W 19.7N 59.0W 20.0N 60.9W 20.0N 63.5W BAMM 19.5N 57.6W 22.6N 61.6W 24.4N 64.1W 26.2N 67.0W LBAR 18.2N 57.6W 20.5N 62.4W 23.4N 64.8W 27.2N 70.5W SHIP 53KTS 58KTS 60KTS 62KTS DSHP 53KTS 58KTS 60KTS 62KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 44.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 15KT LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 38.0W WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

anyone notice the TVCN.
thats the one the NHC leans on and it has TD/4 or Collin shooting back SW.

that would appear to be nothing more than a glitch in the model run... it does not jump back southwestward...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#648 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:30 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Interesting run for sure on the GOM storm but this thread is for TD4...Anyone is welcome to start a thread about the GOM Hurricane in Talking Tropics...

Ivanhater, can you explain why the BAMD keeps doing the 90 degree turn to the west, I believe it's done it 3 runs in a row?

LowndesCoFire · #649 Postby **LowndesCoFire** » Mon Aug 02, 2010 10:06 pm

Why are some models turning 4 to the WSW near the end of the 00Z model runs?
http://hurricanealley.net/StormImages/04LSPAG.jpg

#650 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Aug 02, 2010 10:09 pm

Isn't that turn west at the end of the runs due to high pressure building back in? There have been storms in past seasons that had this too. I'm sure some of our good weather research members could come up with a list.....

#651 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Aug 02, 2010 10:29 pm

Ther only reason I can think of as to why the models are turning it WSW late in the period is that they are "seeing" ridging building over the mid altantic states eastward. Not unreasonable considering it is August.

#652 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Aug 03, 2010 12:04 am

Well the Canadian is coming in further south again so far...actually going over PR...

#653 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Aug 03, 2010 12:08 am

Curves right off the coast of Florida

KWT · #654 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 03, 2010 5:15 am

Colin somewhat stronger this run in the W.Atlantic, the GFS barely weakens Colin at all despite the TUTT.

KWT · #655 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 03, 2010 5:35 am

Two systems this run, note Colin is way stronger then the 0z run had it at at this point and a marked difference from quite a few of the previous GFS runs in that there is no weakening at all and it remains a system...

ronjon · #656 Postby **ronjon** » Tue Aug 03, 2010 6:32 am

Things might get a little interesting down the road with Colin if the 06Z GFS pans out or we get anymore stronger ridging in the 5 to 6 day range. Review of 500 mb charts shows the western Atlantic ridge growing larger east of the storm as it reaches the northern bahamas as well as the SE US ridge expanding east. This slows the storm down and at one point moves a piece of energy SW toward FL. The vorticity plot alslo shows a much stronger storm than previous runs. This run takes it close to the NC outerbanks.

KWT · #657 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 03, 2010 6:37 am

You wouldn't want the ridge any further west really Ronjon esp if this system doesn't weaken like the 06z GFS suggests....the islands should be ok providing the GFS keeps verfying like it has been doing so recently.

#658 Postby **OuterBanker** » Tue Aug 03, 2010 7:24 am

Seems the gfs runs it close to us, then stalls. Then what? Don't have any idea.

Btw, this was supposed to cross 15n 50w yesterday, still hasn't.

PR may not be out of this.

KWT · #659 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 03, 2010 7:26 am

OB, despite the fact it was upgraded last night I think the low level structure has weakened, so this one may well get a little further west then was expected...center is still south of 15N but its too early to know whats happening.

#660 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 03, 2010 7:34 am

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 UTC TUE AUG 3 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN (AL042010) 20100803 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100803  1200   100804  0000   100804  1200   100805  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  48.5W   15.5N  52.3W   17.2N  56.4W   19.3N  60.2W
BAMD    14.0N  48.5W   15.0N  51.5W   16.0N  54.5W   17.3N  57.4W
BAMM    14.0N  48.5W   15.4N  52.0W   16.9N  55.6W   18.8N  58.7W
LBAR    14.0N  48.5W   14.9N  52.2W   16.0N  55.9W   17.0N  59.4W
SHIP        35KTS          41KTS          48KTS          55KTS
DSHP        35KTS          41KTS          48KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100805  1200   100806  1200   100807  1200   100808  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.3N  63.8W   24.9N  69.0W   27.4N  71.3W   29.6N  72.6W
BAMD    18.7N  59.8W   21.3N  62.9W   22.5N  64.6W   22.9N  67.1W
BAMM    20.7N  61.3W   24.1N  64.8W   26.7N  67.2W   29.3N  69.7W
LBAR    18.1N  62.6W   20.5N  67.0W   27.0N  71.0W   27.6N  73.0W
SHIP        59KTS          61KTS          62KTS          62KTS
DSHP        59KTS          61KTS          62KTS          62KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.0N LONCUR =  48.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  13.3N LONM12 =  44.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  12.5N LONM24 =  40.7W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   30NM RD34SE =   25NM RD34SW =   25NM RD34NW =  30NM

ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

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