Early morning thoughts on Invest 91L

[Stormsfury]

Discussion - released approx. 1:45 am in the morning

Ok, the 00z Tropical models were initialized at 26.6ºN ... however, the ETA/GFS along with the Canadian (UKMET was unavailable for ingest)where the old LLC was and initialized further south ... so which is it? ... The globals were going to initialize where the lowest pressures were ...

Now, has anyone noticed what's happening on the northern end of the invest? ... the suppression? Notice the deeper convection continues to consolidate closer and closer to the 25ºN line? Look on this water vapor imagery below and the 24 hour loop

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_29/anis.html
http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html

RECON earlier tonight confirmed no west winds even at 5,000 ft around the MLC ... why? The leftovers of the old LLC and the surface trough - the invest is still a terribly stacked system. Lowest pressures still actually are analyzed SE of Florida. Expect the continuation of the consolidation I spoke of this morning. The Bermuda High is beginning to suppress the moisture further south (notice the on the 2nd WV loop how a punch in the NE - another trough is digging in yet again and notice the squashing of the outflow NE of the invest)

As I expected a broad area of low pressure developed today. Don't expect any tropical development before it reaches Florida. Once in the GOM, the system will have better conditions and will likely develop in the GOM - my best estimate on the latitude line will be roughly around 25ºN as the low-level broad scale low and the squelching (suppression) of the MLC come together towards the GOM ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

At 1 am (0500z) GFDL initialized it at 25.4ºN, 77ºW (1.2º further south than the tropical models) ... and 00z globals initialized 1º further south ...

And at 0545UTC, SSD estimates were still 1.5/1.5 but further south (slightly) at 26.2N, 78.8W.

[Stormsfury]

12z Tropical model Runs initialize at 24.8ºN (further south)

9 am -
Winds through Florida (either NE, E, or SE) ... Key West - NE winds

[GulfBreezer]

SF, thanks for all the info!! Once it enters the GOM, are all conditions still keeping it on a true west path?

[Stormsfury]

SF, thanks for all the info!! Once it enters the GOM, are all conditions still keeping it on a true west path?

Yes, looks more like a Mexico Threat once again ... but I offer this precautionary note: Anywhere along the TX coast down to Central/Northern MX needs to have a watchful eye on this. Intensity forecasts are only 50 kts before landfall ... but if this system consolidates and develops, it's likely the intensity will be higher.

SF

[Guest]

Don't think it will consolidate or develop. Weak TD to Mexico.