ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Vortex]

From NWS San Juan this morning. They expect TUTT to weaken during the wak and drfit NW...Interesting...





PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM AST MON AUG 2 2010/

SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL DRIFT
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN DURING THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL ANOTHER
TUTT MOVES INTO PLACE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

[KWT]

appears to be moving slightly North of due west last several hours at clip around 20mph....IMO I would not be surprised and to an extent I expect this system too come trough the area from the middle Leeward islands North...I think it will be moving to quickly to develop much and I now think its reasonable to expect a passage either side of Guadeloupe probably as a TD at worst with some squally weather/gusty winds...

Dean became a major hurricane at 25kts forward speed, whilst it is an issue for developing systems once you do have a closed low that becomes established the forward speed issue becomes less important, of course for minimal system its still a factor but not the be all of course.

Besides, 20mph really isn't *that* quick, seen many many systems develop nicely at that speed.

[Aric Dunn]

this is going to be a annoying systems... lol

[CajunMama]

Ok peeps...quit with all the off-topic, the chit chat and the rude posts. You want to thank someone, think someone's post is funny, all you want to say is "I agree" and add nothing else to your post...do it in a pm to the person and not in the thread as it clutters up the thread. The staff is not hesitating to delete or move your post.

[KWT]

Thanks for the post about the TUTT Vortex, I wonder what they'd think if they saw the GFS...I think the GFS though must hold the TUTT in place, and given its sat there for 2 months and its been forecasted to weaken for months now, I've gotta go with the idea it'll still be the main player in the region to be honest, esp given its so powerful right now.

[cperez1594]

Intresting????

[vbhoutex]

Very interesting if the steering holds. With that I don't see it being able to gain much latitude in the near term.

[Aric Dunn]

cmc is much weaker and way south ..

[expat2carib]

Too much interesting This explains why the motion is almost due west. I'm on a boat 13.75N 60.95W. Go fish dear TD#4

[Aric Dunn]

Im not sure about this wnw motion they are talking about... its nearly due west..

[JTE50]

Last I heard BP was going forward with the static top kill tonight. I don't think they would be going forward with this if there was a good chance TD4 was Gulf bound.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Very interesting if the steering holds. With that I don't see it being able to gain much latitude in the near term.

hope that this a short trend...

[KWT]

Im not sure about this wnw motion they are talking about... its nearly due west..

I think its because of the relocation of the center earlier in the morning to 12.5N, but the actual motion is probably about 280 at the moment, location just to the south of 13N right now I reckon.

Does need to be watched in the Islands for sure...

[AJC3]

Im not sure about this wnw motion they are talking about... its nearly due west..

WNW is simply a function of average a longer term motion/propagation during the formative process. Little doubt that there the shorter term motion is more westward (a little north of due west) and at a faster forward speed...looks closer to 20kt than 15kt...perhaps even a kt or two above 20.

[jhpigott]

cmc is much weaker and way south ..

execpt until is emerges into the Bahamas and then looks to deepen

12Z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

how strong is the CMC showing TD4 in that last frame (144hr)? Looks like a potential SE FL threat. Looks like a trend back to the west

[Gustywind]

[Aric Dunn]

Im not sure about this wnw motion they are talking about... its nearly due west..

WNW is simply a function of average a longer term motion/propagation during the formative process. Little doubt that there the shorter term motion is more westward (a little north of due west) and at a faster forward speed...looks closer to 20kt than 15kt.

yeah figured it was more of a formative motion. but also figured they would adjust for it.. thanks for the clarification..

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

What is all the flak being ejected to the north? Mid level shear?

[Aric Dunn]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

What is all the flak being ejected to the north? Mid level shear?

well its stable air clouds forming around the system due to some SAL

[HURAKAN]

Great loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater



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