ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looking at the CIMSS loop, it wasnt TD worthy untill about 3-5 frames ago.

[Sanibel]

What happened to all that black IR? Now we have a wimpy, small warm-topped dot.


This one is the 2010 Cape Verde ice breaker.

[hurricaneCW]

Interesting that the NHC mentions that this could open up to a tropical wave. I personally think it will strengthen so that won't happen but you never know. The shear forecasts for day 4-5 indicate 20-30 knots of wind shear which would weaken/kill off the storm. The shear would also have an affect on the track, if this system is really sheared off, it could carry on further west and maybe redevelop if upper level conditions allow for it. Pretty interesting few days, at least the tropics won't be completely quiet.

[KWT]

What happened to all that black IR? Now we have a wimpy, small warm-topped dot.


This one is the 2010 Cape Verde ice breaker.

Reminds me of when Bertha came free of the ITCZ lifesupport in 2008, but alas it is still producing some convection over the center so at least its getting going.

If you look at the high resolution imagery from the MSFC site, it looks a bit better then it does on other loops.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know they mention the error of margin for a five day forecast, but I am a bit surprised of the fact they put so much emphasis on a north bend at end of the forecast. Would have thought they would have played it a little more conservatively and had the cone closer to the northern LA's and Bahamas. Just think this mid-summer unusally strong EC trough will not play out.

[taccido]

Some people can't get home insurance because of all these storms and more are coming. I hope they have enough planes to do the job. It doesn't sound good.

[Air Force Met]

A tiny system can not survive 30 knots of wind shear. I personally think TD4/Colin is a dead stick. The only way I can see it surviving is if it triples its size, really ramps up, and the shear isn't as strong. Other than that, forget about it.

I agree...unless it gets a really good core of convection and deepens...I don't think much will become of this. I agree with the discussion about the fast forward motion: If this doesn't deepen some more...it has a good chance of opening back up into a wave because of the fast forward motion.

The upper air pattern looks favorable for development in the near term...but in the long term...not so much.

[KWT]

I agree...unless it gets a really good core of convection and deepens...I don't think much will become of this. I agree with the discussion about the fast forward motion: If this doesn't deepen some more...it has a good chance of opening back up into a wave because of the fast forward motion.

The upper air pattern looks favorable for development in the near term...but in the long term...not so much.

Of course the fast forward motion through say 72-120hrs is rather assuming the trough actually can get the job done and lift the thing the whole way out like the NHC track pretty much suggests it will...I think it fails to finish the job and what will be left is sure a sheared mess, but one that pretty much stalls/drifts off the coast perhaps between 70-75W and that zone could well be decent for strengthening, esp as the TUTT probably doesn't extend that far.

Still the conditions aloft do look quite....meh I spose between 72-120hrs...ironcailly thats the same time the upper trough starts to nudge in and a weaker system may well be able to avoid being sling-shot into the westerlies further north.

[CrazyC83]

Could this just sail due west and head for the Windwards?

[x-y-no]

OK, the meta-discussion about upgrade (and especially the political stuff) stops now.

Warnings and suspensions will follow if y'all keep it up.

[rockyman]

Looks like the official forecast crosses the NE corner of Hebert's box (20/60)...so that means there's a 50% chance of this system moving through the box.

From Wiki:
The geography of the Hebert Boxes is the key to their use as predictors. The boxes are located such that hurricanes have plenty of space to intensify after passing through them, and the prevailing winds tend to push them towards Florida. Conversely, if they pass outside the box they are either too close to land to intensify much, or are far enough away from land that they are more subject to the influences of steering winds and other atmospheric conditions.... These tend to... push the hurricane ....eastwards causing them to curve outwards over the Atlantic and miss landfall altogether.

While these boxes provide an indication that a hurricane may threaten South Florida, a hurricane does not have to pass through one to strike there, as were the case with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Andrew, though the latter did skirt the edges of the eastern box. Additionally, a hurricane which does pass through a Hebert Box can very easily miss Florida, or indeed any landfall entirely. Hebert himself acknowledged that the boxes are not a guarantee of hurricane landfall either way, but cautions that if a hurricane passes through one, "really, really pay attention. We worry plenty in August and September when one goes through that box, and we have a certain comfort level when one misses the box."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box



From HurricaneCity:
So what does all this mean when a Hurricane passes or develops in the Hebert Box east of Puerto Rico since 1950?
1)N Carolina has as much of a chance to get hit as Florida.
2)20.58% or most go out to sea without hitting land.
3)Only 8.82% make it into the Gulf of Mexico when they pass through the box as a hurricane.
4)Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of n Antilles).

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[KWT]

Could this just sail due west and head for the Windwards?

I don't think anything can be ruled out for sure, though I do see at least some slight latitude gain occuring at the moment, but I don't think its been WNW in the last 4-6hrs anyway, I think 280-285 right now looks about right but its difficult to tell for me right now for some reason!

[chrisnnavarre]

Weather underground has two tropical systems on their site...TD 4 is slightly ahead of Invest 91L. Are there actually two systems here, with TD 4 being the smaller system to the Northwest?

[KWT]

chrisnnavarre, TD4 is 91L, they are one and the same storm.

I personally can't wait for some more recon....

Anyway models just about to start rolling out, lets see what they do this time round...

[CrazyC83]

Could this just sail due west and head for the Windwards?

I don't think anything can be ruled out for sure, though I do see at least some slight latitude gain occuring at the moment, but I don't think its been WNW in the last 4-6hrs anyway, I think 280-285 right now looks about right but its difficult to tell for me right now for some reason!

That does seem reasonable at the moment. I am looking at the CIMSS site and even if this strengthened all the way to a major hurricane, it would just move due west into the southern Caribbean Sea towards Central America. Things could always change in the medium term (NHC's thinking) though.

[SouthFLTropics]

OK, the meta-discussion about upgrade (and especially the political stuff) stops now.

Warnings and suspensions will follow if y'all keep it up.

Thank you...

With that being said I think TD4 looks pretty good this morning especially on visible imagery. Furthermore I think the NHC made the right call at the right time. The forecast for this is not going to be easy and I don't envy any of them at the NHC. I would expect that the forecast may shift to the left some more but with the current trough set up off of the EC I see no reason to suspect that this will make it past 75W.

Please refer to official NHC forecasts...This is not an official forecast.

SFT

[Hurricane Andrew]

The CIMSS is updating there map, so, no CIMSS for a while.

[Sanibel]

I never try to predict track before the system reaches 45W or 50W. The SST's get warmer there and affect the storm.

In a couple of weeks storms should be able to form anywhere.

This track is good for the oil spill recovery.

[KWT]

That does seem reasonable at the moment. I am looking at the CIMSS site and even if this strengthened all the way to a major hurricane, it would just move due west into the southern Caribbean Sea towards Central America. Things could always change in the medium term (NHC's thinking) though.

I'm keeping a close eye on the loops over the next 6-9hrs, now we do have an established center tracking the system should be a little easier and we've got a fair while of light still left, then there is the added bonus its in the region that the High resolution Sat can see now.

[solomon25]

I never try to predict track before the system reaches 45W or 50W. The SST's get warmer there and affect the storm.

In a couple of weeks storms should be able to form anywhere.

This track is good for the oil spill recovery.

Are are saying the track will help keep oil from coming onshore?