ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

Which is exactly what I was saying last night when some were ready to declare it a TD at any moment: The NHC wanted a good long vis loop. Taking a look at that loop this morning...I am not convinced I see a lot of west winds. I think I do see some...but there aren't many. There is a lot of vorticity for sure...but if recon was flying in there (if that was possible)...I doubt they would find very much in the way of west winds...maybe 5-10 kts. Now...that's probably enough...but barely.

AFM, what is that complex behind 91L? How do you see it interacting?

If TD4/Colin ramps up quick...it will neuter that mass of convection behind it until it can steer free of it. So...I would not expect much from it for about 5 days.

The storm out in front has the advantage.

[tolakram]

I'm tired of paging through post after post of amateurs questioning the NHC. For my money it did not look like a TD until just a few hours ago when the convection reorganized around the center of circulation, and it still looks wimpy but at least it appears TD worth to my eyes .. which are most certainly amateur.

[KWT]

It looks like a tiny TD, much better than Bonnie ever looked. Considering these disturbances always ramp up in the evenings (D-max), that's probably when we'll get Colin. I'd say tomorrow morning at the earliest, and tomorrow evening at the latest.

Otherway round mate, Dmax is just before sunrise....but yeah your right it looks better then Bonnie.

Anyway good to have TD4...if the NHC follow the graphical model I've been watching they will probably track the system NE of the Caribbean but with the cone probably over the NE Caribbean islands.

The first NHC discussion is going to be most interesting, get to see what they think of the whole trough situation.

[thetruesms]

Which is exactly what I was saying last night when some were ready to declare it a TD at any moment: The NHC wanted a good long vis loop. Taking a look at that loop this morning...I am not convinced I see a lot of west winds. I think I do see some...but there aren't many. There is a lot of vorticity for sure...but if recon was flying in there (if that was possible)...I doubt they would find very much in the way of west winds...maybe 5-10 kts. Now...that's probably enough...but barely.

Indeed. Another slant to the near land or not situation is that nearer to land, there's so much more data. You've got surface obs, buoys, ships, recon - it's practically a wealth of data compared to where this thing is, where pretty much we've got is a short vis loop and a hope that ASCAT won't miss completely.

Really, when all you've got is that vis loop on a system out in the middle of nowhere, why would you not wait a couple more hours as NHC just did, just to make sure that your data is telling you the right thing?

edit - look at AFM and ncweatherwiz swooping in before me and saying just what needed to be said while I was still putzing around trying to figure out what to say

[Hugo1989]

This system is much better organized than it was Bonnie.

[Gustywind]

RENUMBER!!!!!!

NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912010_al042010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008021405
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

good catch Luis thanks for the colors too it's simply bright!

[StormClouds63]

Looking at the WV image this morning, TD-4 has its work cut out for it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv.jpg

[cycloneye]

Updated Best Track with TD

AL, 04, 2010080212, , BEST, 0, 123N, 403W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[tolakram]

Finally in range of the loops.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5


It will be interesting to see how if or how quickly this ramps up, being as small as it is. With record temps and decent conditions we may be surprised .... or not.

[Evil Jeremy]

The first NHC discussion is going to be most interesting, get to see what they think of the whole trough situation.

And it seems like Stewart has the morning shift, so you know its going to be detailed.

[Hurricane Andrew]

First cape verde storm of the season.

Most Organized TD of the season too. LOL.

[tolakram]

[hurricaneCW]

By the way, how strong is the shear going to be once TD 4 encounters it?

[Air Force Met]

Really, when all you've got is that vis loop on a system out in the middle of nowhere, why would you not wait a couple more hours as NHC just did, just to make sure that your data is telling you the right thing?

Exactly. When its 3 days away from the Islands...I have to wonder what they hurry is? What difference will 12 hours make? Especially when 8 of those 12 hours people are asleep (except for tropical geeks ) Why the rush?

Now if it was rapidly intensifying...that 12 hours could mean something. But it isn't. It looks a little better than it did yesterday evening...but not a whole lot. Certainly not enough to warrant an upgrade in the middle of the night with no idea if there was a closed circulation or not.

People need to understand...the last thing the NHC wants to do is upgrade a system at night on the mid shift...and then do a shift change...and then have to have the day shift downgrade it to an open wave. When they upgrade something that far east...they want to make sure it will be around for a while.

[Hurricane Andrew]

By the way, how strong is the shear going to be once TD 4 encounters it?

Looking at the CIMSS map, nothing for at leas 12-24 Hours. But, Near the Antillies, there is some 30K shear. so...30 Knots.

[Air Force Met]

The first NHC discussion is going to be most interesting, get to see what they think of the whole trough situation.

And it seems like Stewart has the morning shift, so you know its going to be detailed.

If that's the case....then now you know why it got upgraded...

[SFLcane]

Look forward to stacys discussion!

[KWT]

By the way, how strong is the shear going to be once TD 4 encounters it?

Wow isn't that the million dollar question, I think its safe to say there probably will be some shear aloft at some point between say 3-5 days time when this systems gets to around 60W, that TUTT is looking mighty impressive I've gotta admit so could see some weakening uring that time but if the upper trough doesn't lift it up totally it'll probably get better conditions as it slows right down in weak steering conditions...

[Hurricane Andrew]

I know what stewart will say-The Satellite Presentation has imporved, so the Forecasters of NHC have decieded to call this a Tropical Depresion. LOL.

Stewart gives GREAT discussions. He always explains everything well.

[Hugo1989]

2km Infrared loop - [url][/url]

The image speaks than a thousand word