ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

I don't want to go off topic but I do think that colored letters help sometimes especially when you don't want to read all the text and you are looking for the most important parts.

problem is it becomes contagious and all of a sudden they mean nothing, best to have no caps and no color on a discussion board, now back to the topic

[KWT]

This is clearly a TD, why do we continue to have different levels of what constitutes a TC from one within a few hundred miles of the US mainland and one further out???

its a TD when the judge and jury says it is, bet we get it at 11 though or maybe even a TS

To quote what the NHC even said once with Vince 05, "if it looks like a duck, it probably is a duck" of course thats possibly not the best saying for this particular situation but I'd imagine its probably just about there now, and I can't see any real reason not to upgrade, esp given we've had a fair few hours of Vis imagery now.

ps, mind you pre-Dolly looked pretty much like a TS yet had no LLC...so sometimes it doesn't work out that way!

[Air Force Met]

This is clearly a TD, why do we continue to have different levels of what constitutes a TC from one within a few hundred miles of the US mainland and one further out???

Maybe the NHC wanted to see the visible to verify a LLC before making a decision and they can declare a TD at 11am if warranted, no big deal. If it were close to land then maybe they would have declared a TD with a "Special Advisory" at 8am, no need for that in this situation.

Which is exactly what I was saying last night when some were ready to declare it a TD at any moment: The NHC wanted a good long vis loop. Taking a look at that loop this morning...I am not convinced I see a lot of west winds. I think I do see some...but there aren't many. There is a lot of vorticity for sure...but if recon was flying in there (if that was possible)...I doubt they would find very much in the way of west winds...maybe 5-10 kts. Now...that's probably enough...but barely.

[Blown Away]

HPC discussion:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
855 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 06 2010 - 12Z MON AUG 09 2010

that is a very excellent synopsis of the situation, good post

The Camp Springs & San Juan guys/gals write awesome forecasts!!

[GeneratorPower]

Which is exactly what I was saying last night when some were ready to declare it a TD at any moment: The NHC wanted a good long vis loop. Taking a look at that loop this morning...I am not convinced I see a lot of west winds. I think I do see some...but there aren't many. There is a lot of vorticity for sure...but if recon was flying in there (if that was possible)...I doubt they would find very much in the way of west winds...maybe 5-10 kts. Now...that's probably enough...but barely.

AFM, what is that complex behind 91L? How do you see it interacting?

[jlauderdal]

no the NHC is too conservative to do that... unless you see an eye form they will not go to TS... it is not a threat to land right now

land has nothing to do with it, if it meets their TS criteria than they declare it if it doesn't than no TS

Sorry to say...but land has a lot to do with it. It gives them time to make sure its a TS. You would have never found them naming something TS Grace if it was 1000 miles WSW of the Cape Verdes....and that is a fact.

DOes it have to meet certain criteria? Sure....certainly. But...being that far away from land gives them time to evaluate that criteria. That's why they won't (or usually don') upgrade straight to a TS that far out unless they get a ship ob that cannot be disputed.

And this isn't TS worthy on satellite.

i stand corrected and this helps explain why we get mixed signals from them, they need to go with pure science and cut out the other stuff, it either is or it isn't based on their tools, so i guess if it is closer in and they declare it a td, ts or hurricane we might wonder well maybe it really isn't but its closer to land so it is and then we might say well maybe those watches or warnings really aren't to be taken seriousely because..seems like a real odd way to do things

[StormClouds63]

What effects, if any, will the large wave east of 91L have on the development of this system?

[Gustywind]

I don't want to go off topic but I do think that colored letters help sometimes especially when you don't want to read all the text and you are looking for the most important parts.

surely i tkink too, to highlight.

You guys do realize, though, that they are (in the bold red) just restating what the TWO already says...right? Its almost word for word from the TWO. The original part is the specifics...lat...long...etc...but the stuff everyone always puts into bold is always a copy/paste job from the TWO.

Not sure why that is so important.

Yeah agree but the NHC have to be (try to be ) credible with words too, so this mission is cleared after the pure scientific datas are somewhat better than words in my humble opinion. As a conclusion, let's simply wait and see what could happen with 91L

[KWT]

i stand corrected and this helps explain why we get mixed signals from them, they need to go with pure science and cut out the other stuff, it either is or it isn't based on their tools, so i guess if it is closer in and they declare it a td, ts or hurricane we might wonder well maybe it really isn't but its closer to land so it is and then we might say well maybe those watches or warnings really aren't to be taken seriousely because..seems like a real odd way to do things

Yeah in an ideal world that would happen but alas it doesn't, its a constant source of annoyence for us hardcore tropics fans, esp when systems get upgraded in part of the basin but had they been in another wouldn't have...but thats the way things work out sometimes!

[Air Force Met]

it helps me to find the pertinent without having to read the entire thing. Sorry you don't like it, but others may.

I think my issue with bolding this particular text is: This isn't new information. Its just a copy and paste from the TWO on the part of the TAFB. If this was something that was new and not seen before...ok...but this info is just a restatement of what the NHC has already said in the TWO.

Its not a second opinion from the TAFB. Its not their forecast also. If it was...then I could see making it stand out.

[cycloneye]

RENUMBER!!!!!!

NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912010_al042010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008021405
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[KWT]

Ah so look like we are going to have TD4...good good!

[StormClouds63]

91L (TD4) moving at a good, steady pace. Direction appears to be just a little north of due west.

[Air Force Met]

i stand corrected and this helps explain why we get mixed signals from them, they need to go with pure science and cut out the other stuff, it either is or it isn't based on their tools, so i guess if it is closer in and they declare it a td, ts or hurricane we might wonder well maybe it really isn't but its closer to land so it is and then we might say well maybe those watches or warnings really aren't to be taken seriousely because..seems like a real odd way to do things

Also understand when it is closer to land they have a lot more tools available to them. Recon is nearby...and ship and buoy obs are everywhere compared to the central Atlantic. In the central Atlantic...all they have to go on is the satellite data. So...since it really isn't that big of a threat (you can get TS winds in a wave)...take your time.

Now...IMO...they sometime do take too long...but that is showing the differences in personalities at the NHC. It also shows, perhaps, some philosophical differences on what constitutes a TD. I have a pretty liberal definition....especially since I cut my teeth in tropical meteorology during the 70's and 80's. We were looking for anything to upgrade. Now that the tempo has picked up...best to be a little conservative.

[SouthFloridawx]

Where do you get this info at?

[b]RENUMBER!!!!!!

NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912010_al042010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008021405
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Evil Jeremy]

Ah, they pulled the trigger. A little later than they normally do on the ATCF file, but better late than never.

So, what do you think the first cone will look like? I think they will go south of the model consensus, partially because of the current westward motion and the model trend.

[Hurricane Andrew]

TD4!!!!! YEAH!

Can't wait to see where the NHC think its goin'.

[cycloneye]

Updated Best Track with TD

AL, 04, 2010080212, , BEST, 0, 123N, 403W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[hurricaneCW]

It looks like a tiny TD, much better than Bonnie ever looked. Considering these disturbances always ramp up in the evenings (D-max), that's probably when we'll get Colin. I'd say tomorrow morning at the earliest, and tomorrow evening at the latest.

[ncweatherwizard]

i stand corrected and this helps explain why we get mixed signals from them, they need to go with pure science and cut out the other stuff, it either is or it isn't based on their tools, so i guess if it is closer in and they declare it a td, ts or hurricane we might wonder well maybe it really isn't but its closer to land so it is and then we might say well maybe those watches or warnings really aren't to be taken seriousely because..seems like a real odd way to do things

This would sound great if your goal was to be absolutely correct about your classification operationally. But classification isn't completely objective anyway, and we can go back and correct mistakes in our operational classifications later.

Recall that the mission of the NHC is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency. How they classify this particular disturbance doesn't much affect any of the NHC goals right now. However, if taxpayers (or in this case people in any country) may be threatened by a TC, then NHC will be quicker to issue advisories on a storm and give folks as much time as possible to prepare. Otherwise, they will be held accountable for not issuing warnings soon enough.

Finally, people will take watches/warnings as seriously as much as they will when issued. Most folks don't even know about 91L.