ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

This is clearly a TD, why do we continue to have different levels of what constitutes a TC from one within a few hundred miles of the US mainland and one further out???

[cycloneye]

HPC discussion:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
855 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 06 2010 - 12Z MON AUG 09 2010

ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
12N 41W THIS MORNING...WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FLING NEAR
OR OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NONE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO
BEEN QUESTIONABLE WITHIN ANY OF ITS 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THE MULTI-DAY WAVERING IS AROUND A TRACK
WHICH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES UP THE BAHAMAS AND
OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT THE ECMWFS ATTEMPT TO RECURVE THIS SYSTEM
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC CANADA IN A WEEK...BUT JUST AS MANY WHICH MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS. THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND
THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO
FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR. THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT TO ITS NORTH SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT NEARS
FLORIDA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS TRACK EXPECTATION
AND CONTINUITY FROM THE 16Z CALL ON SUNDAY...THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS
USED AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD TO BE DITCHED
FOR THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE LATE IN
THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE
IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...AND CHANGES MAY OCCUR DURING THE
16Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC TODAY

[Cryomaniac]

This post is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any meteorological evidence. As such it should not be used for any purpose

I can't see any way that they don't upgrade based on the latest images. As has been said it looks almost like a TS already. If the current trend continues I'd say we have Colin later today.

[Macrocane]

I don't want to go off topic but I do think that colored letters help sometimes especially when you don't want to read all the text and you are looking for the most important parts.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N40W TO 13N39W WITH A 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 11N38W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 38W-42W.
THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...
HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES
NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

i see the red font has appeared again, we had some last night too, we have done a good job getting rid of the CAPS now lets work on the colored fonts

time will tell! Let's wait and see what could happen today with 91L without falling in pure personnal speculation as we don't need that. Whereas if 91L take time to organize that won't be good news for the entire Leewards islands, the more time it takes the more chances of threat increases for the Lesser Antilles even if it stays at a TD status. Something to monitor closely...

[Macrocane]

I think they have to start advisories as soon as possible (in about 1 hour) they have to be consistent if they considered TD-2 a tropical cyclone I wouldn't understand why 91L is not.

[x-y-no]

Hmmm ...

THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND
THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO
FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

My prediction in chat last night was a Carolinas storm. Think I'm sticking with that for now.

[ncweatherwizard]

It's not immediately convincing that the circulation is completely closed off. The last European scatterometer pass was last night, and that did not show a closed circulation. QuikSCAT used to be helpful in situations like this if you could get a swath over the area of interest. That said, I too imagine this will be classified as a tropical depression today.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hmmm ...

THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND
THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO
FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

My prediction in chat last night was a Carolinas storm. Think I'm sticking with that for now.

I am starting to agree with that two. I was looking at the recent CMC run, and it looks like you might end up being right.

[Gustywind]

I don't want to go off topic but I do think that colored letters help sometimes especially when you don't want to read all the text and you are looking for the most important parts.

surely i tkink too, to highlight.

[Air Force Met]

land has nothing to do with it, if it meets their TS criteria than they declare it if it doesn't than no TS

Sorry to say...but land has a lot to do with it. It gives them time to make sure its a TS. You would have never found them naming something TS Grace if it was 1000 miles WSW of the Cape Verdes....and that is a fact.

DOes it have to meet certain criteria? Sure....certainly. But...being that far away from land gives them time to evaluate that criteria. That's why they won't (or usually don') upgrade straight to a TS that far out unless they get a ship ob that cannot be disputed.

And this isn't TS worthy on satellite.

[KWT]

This is clearly a TD, why do we continue to have different levels of what constitutes a TC from one within a few hundred miles of the US mainland and one further out???

Exactly, I think its now blatently obvious this is a TD now, and whilst I admit the convection is still a little limited its not exactly a huge deal when your looking at a TD anyway...

As the HPC said, the first trough for all its digging doesn't appear good enough to do the full job at the first time of asking and so it looks like it'll drift about for a few days to the E/NE of the Bahamas...and the upstream pattern is far enough down the line still to change greatly...at least greatly enough to shift the threat zone.

I think given the shear zone that will be present (though worth noting it could also help to ventilate the system....) and possibly some weakening I certainly think the E.coast has a reasonable threat level.

[Blown Away]

This is clearly a TD, why do we continue to have different levels of what constitutes a TC from one within a few hundred miles of the US mainland and one further out???

Maybe the NHC wanted to see the visible to verify a LLC before making a decision and they can declare a TD at 11am if warranted, no big deal. If it were close to land then maybe they would have declared a TD with a "Special Advisory" at 8am, no need for that in this situation.

[jlauderdal]

This is clearly a TD, why do we continue to have different levels of what constitutes a TC from one within a few hundred miles of the US mainland and one further out???

its a TD when the judge and jury says it is, bet we get it at 11 though or maybe even a TS

[Air Force Met]

I don't want to go off topic but I do think that colored letters help sometimes especially when you don't want to read all the text and you are looking for the most important parts.

surely i tkink too, to highlight.

You guys do realize, though, that they are (in the bold red) just restating what the TWO already says...right? Its almost word for word from the TWO. The original part is the specifics...lat...long...etc...but the stuff everyone always puts into bold is always a copy/paste job from the TWO.

Not sure why that is so important.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think we will have a TD in an hour from now, or at least we should. Normally the change to 03L would have been made on NRL by now, but knowing Stewart is on duty this morning (at least judging by the 8AM TWO), I think he would pull the trigger, and I look forward to his discussion.

[neospaceblue]

My prediction in chat last night was a Carolinas storm. Think I'm sticking with that for now.

No thanks. We're good. Carolina storms tend to wreak havoc on Hampton Roads, VA (i.e. Floyd, Isabel, Ernesto)

[jlauderdal]

HPC discussion:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
855 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 06 2010 - 12Z MON AUG 09 2010

ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
12N 41W THIS MORNING...WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FLING NEAR
OR OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NONE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO
BEEN QUESTIONABLE WITHIN ANY OF ITS 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THE MULTI-DAY WAVERING IS AROUND A TRACK
WHICH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES UP THE BAHAMAS AND
OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT THE ECMWFS ATTEMPT TO RECURVE THIS SYSTEM
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC CANADA IN A WEEK...BUT JUST AS MANY WHICH MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS. THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND
THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO
FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR. THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT TO ITS NORTH SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT NEARS
FLORIDA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS TRACK EXPECTATION
AND CONTINUITY FROM THE 16Z CALL ON SUNDAY...THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS
USED AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD TO BE DITCHED
FOR THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE LATE IN
THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE
IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...AND CHANGES MAY OCCUR DURING THE
16Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC TODAY

that is a very excellent synopsis of the situation, good post

[KWT]

Hmmm ...

THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND
THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO
FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

My prediction in chat last night was a Carolinas storm. Think I'm sticking with that for now.

That may well be the call I'd make right now as well, these upper troughs can sometimes be a little overdone but then again the trend if anything is exactly the opposite...so its a tough call right now, my gut feeling is whilst the evolution is correct, it gets more westwards in the next few days.

A small system would surely not feel an upper trough as easily though as well surely?

[artist]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N40W TO 13N39W WITH A 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 11N38W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 38W-42W.
THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...
HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES
NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

i see the red font has appeared again, we had some last night too, we have done a good job getting rid of the CAPS now lets work on the colored fonts

it helps me to find the pertinent without having to read the entire thing. Sorry you don't like it, but others may.