ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[cycloneye]

So far it looks like the 00Z CMC has the best handle on initialization and movement.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010080200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Almost all the discussions here are about GFS and ECMWF but I consider CMC has done good so far not only now but so far in 2010. Maybe a tad bullish about having more than one at the same run but overall not a bad report card so far.

[sandyb]

what do yall think of this

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... ml#picture

[sandyb]

run the cmc at 180 carolinas better watch out if this comes to pass

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 021220
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC MON AUG 2 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100802 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100802  1200   100803  0000   100803  1200   100804  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  40.3W   13.5N  43.8W   14.9N  47.8W   16.6N  51.9W
BAMD    12.3N  40.3W   13.4N  43.2W   14.7N  46.1W   15.9N  49.0W
BAMM    12.3N  40.3W   13.5N  43.6W   14.9N  47.3W   16.4N  51.0W
LBAR    12.3N  40.3W   13.5N  43.2W   14.8N  46.7W   16.1N  50.1W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          44KTS          51KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          44KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100804  1200   100805  1200   100806  1200   100807  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  56.1W   22.1N  63.1W   25.0N  68.2W   27.4N  71.0W
BAMD    17.1N  51.6W   19.1N  55.5W   19.7N  57.5W   18.7N  59.4W
BAMM    18.0N  54.6W   21.5N  59.8W   24.1N  63.0W   26.1N  65.4W
LBAR    17.3N  53.5W   19.7N  59.0W   22.5N  61.5W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        57KTS          62KTS          59KTS          54KTS
DSHP        57KTS          62KTS          59KTS          54KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  40.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  11.2N LONM12 =  38.0W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  10.1N LONM24 =  36.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[KWT]

You can see the way the models do lift more to the north at the end of most of the runs, just some uncertainties about how far west it is when that occurs and to what extent...

[Blown Away]

According to the 12z BAM models a deeper system goes farther south.

[KWT]

Gotta admit the first 72hrs has unreal agreement between the models, looks like a pretty solid idea to take it WNW.

The NE Caribbean still needs to watch so closely...

[rockyman]

According to the 12z BAM models a deeper system goes farther south.

This idea is supported by the 00z Euro, which showed a weaker system heading up toward Bermuda.

Upon closer inspection, the BAMD does a "left hand turn" toward the end of the run...this could be a glitch.

[Frank2]

The Bermuda high is well displaced to the NE for the entire GFS run (more like an Azores high), so recurves are a possibility:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[Lane]

Looks like a LLC has formed in the last frame of the vis. loop.

[StormClouds63]

There are a train of lows behind 91L though. 91L may be the beginning of alot of systems to watch over the next couple of weeks...I count at least 3 invests, maybe one TS or depression and a couple of lows...

They can't all go fishing could they?

Yes ... until the ridge builds back in place and the trough lifts out. If that trough stays in place off the U.S. east coast, most of the CV systems in 2010 will be going fishing.

It looks like the system behind 91L would follow a similar track with re-curve a definite possibility.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is it just me, or is this graphic wrong on a few points?



For instance, compare the yellow line (00z Canadian) on the graphic with the 00z Canadian run animation seen here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

They don't really line up at all. The yellow line on the graphic is well to the north of where the animated Canadian run shows 91L moving.

Another, less extreme, example would be the GFS. The 6z run on the graphic also seems a little further north and east than the 6z run on the animation IMO: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

I've gotta admit I can see what your saying there EWG, the Candian from looking at the graphical points acually take this one over PR then swings NW from there onwards, about 3-5 degrees further west.

The models appear to be on the right line IMO but clearly if it gets further west in the early stages and then turns NW there is going to be much bigger risk to the E.Coast...these systems tend to be quite close run things usually.

[ronjon]

EWG, I was thinking maybe they're off on the time stamp for some of the models - previous runs?

Verified track of 00z CMC:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/10080200/10.html

[Fego]

About those models that recurve 91L, can they be right (consensus) in proyecting a wrong scenario? Hope I explained my self.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG, I was thinking maybe they're off on the time stamp for some of the models - previous runs?

Verified track of 00z CMC:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/10080200/10.html

Yeah, that might be it. I just went back and looked at the 12z CMC from yesterday and it seems to match up much better with what is shown on the graphic.

[KWT]

I like that CMC track myself, if I had to draw what I thought would happen it'd probably be close to what the CMC shows, maybe a touch south and maybe a slightly sharper northward turn but broadly the same...

I know the HPC favour the CMC solution interestingly...

[Gustywind]

About those models that recurve 91L, can they be right (consensus) in proyecting a wrong scenario? Hope I explained my self.

Absolutely Fego, i think that too because of it's not even a TD and all is possible in the Tropics! It's a such difficult thing to do. Honestly if they are all right with this track, that will allow for us to take a small breath but it's too close for comfort especially with the Northern Leewards. We're far enough from reality Fego, let's wait and see. If we have TD 4 today models will better appreciate the intensity and by extension the possible track.
Gustywind

[Frank2]

The EC trough of the past couple of summers (and winters) has lifted out and is now north of Hudson Bay (that's one reason the NE has been very warm this summer, as opposed to the past two), but the lobes of the trough still are far enough south that it seems to be displacing the Bermuda High to the east...

Frank

[Weatherfreak000]

The CMC wins again. And quietly the CMC has been performing better than the other models.