ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Vortmax1]

It looks like they're ready for the upgrade.
Why not?

[KWT]

It seems as though a system would have to travel in the southern Caribbean to survive. Any further north and its a death trap. Interesting that despite the strengthening La Nina, it looks a lot like El Nino out there. Oh well, 2nd half of August and September should still be good.

To be honest I'm more worried if the shear does pick up, because a strong system will almost certainly lift the system out, but a weaker system may well find itself getting rather closer to the Bahamas region then some models expect, and you could well see the upper conditions improve quite alot at that time...

ps, I know what you mean by the way, its all very 2007 like down there!

[Gustywind]

12z Best Track

AL, 91, 2010080212, , BEST, 0, 123N, 403W, 30, 1006, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Winds up to 30kts and pressure down to 1006mbs.

Will they pull the trigger at 11?

already 1006

[KWT]

Yet still just an invest...not sure what more this system can do to become a TD, even the Dvorak is suggesting this should be a TD (2.0 is enough in most situations) and Vis imagery clearly suggests an organising system...

I'm expecting an upgrade in the next 6-12hrs tops.

[Hugo1989]

I will not be necessary to wait at 2:00 pm for TD classification.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N40W TO 13N39W WITH A 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 11N38W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 38W-42W.
THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...
HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES
NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Looks like 91L will have another opponent just east with this blob near the 28W...

[KWT]

Convection developing over the center of the system, I can only think the NHC just want a little bit more in the way of convection, probably has reduced due to it coming away from the ITCZ and into slightly less warm waters.

However lets be frank, it looks better then both TD2 and Bonnie, if we had recon with this, itd be TD4...for certain IMO!

[Vortmax1]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC MON AUG 2 2010

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 40.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

[KWT]

12.3 looks good to me, the estimates should now be much more useful now we know roughly where any LLC likely will be...so the track over the next 12-24hrs will give a good indication of the overall track.

[Vortmax1]

The NRL is getting ready for a TCFA it appears:


CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 012300ZAUG10//
storm id: al912010 1. tcfa message

[Gustywind]

CROWNWEATHER

Issued: Monday, August 2, 2010 635 am EDT/535 am CDT

For Information On Invest 91-L with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.

Discussion
Invest 91-L:
Invest 91-L was located about 975 miles or so west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands this morning. Latest imagery indicates that a low-level well defined circulation has not yet formed, even though it is pretty well organized. I suspect that within the next 24 to at very most 36 hours, this system will be able to form a low-level circulation and be classified as Tropical Depression #4.

The satellite imagery as a whole this morning says plenty. It is pretty obvious that this is a fairly large system in its overall size and development should be slow to occur; however, it will be harder in the long run for outside influences like troughs to significantly affect this system.

...

Edited by x-y-no
Please do not quote entire copyrighted posts. Thanks.

[Blown Away]

72 hour TAFB shows a system very close to the NE Caribbean and looks to go through the Hebert Box and seems to be south of the 12z model consensus.

[Recurve]

On visible this morning in the last frame, just starting to see arms curving toward the convection at what I guess is the center. Might go straight to named storm. Seems to be moving along faster in the east to west flow too. I get about 11 knot movement from the best track positions.

[Gustywind]

[Hurricane Andrew]

WHat is the herbert box?

[x-y-no]

WHat is the herbert box?

Hebert Box:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

[jlauderdal]

WHat is the herbert box?

google.com

[keithy joe]

Expect another Tw (Tropical Wave) to the rear of Invest91l soon to be named Ts Colin. Forming just W of Cape Verde. Both CMC and GFS guidance now shows an enhanced wave train coming out of W Africa. Note the MJO moving into Octant 1 and 2 in the next 20 days readily enhancing the tropical development further. So we're officially Kick Off for the 2010 season. Invest91l should be named a Tropical Depression or Storm very shortly. Will Colin become a CAT1 hurricane? We'll have to wait and see. GFDL and HWRF are tentatively suggesting that this is a possibility. Shear tendency is generally decreasing ahead of Invest91l, so all to play for.