ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[KWT]

Indeed it does look like its getting a pretty decent shape, looks like the LLC is probably at 13/40 roughly, that looks by far the best candidate with the longer loops now.

Storm cloud shield aligned close to WNW, may well give a decent indication of heading today.

Clearly still some uncertainty today because whilst the models do all agree on a large upper trough that does help to lift up the storm, whether or not it does it at the first time of asking and how much latitude it gains in the next 2-3 days are going to be vital for those in the possible path.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Thoughts on 8AM?

I think 100%, then TD at 11.

[hurricaneCW]

Oh oh it doesn't look so good. I don't know if its the shear or dry air, but I'm not impressed. May not become a TD until tomorrow now. That could be bad if it decides to slowly develop.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 90%.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED...
AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Held at 90%, the NHC probably just waiting for one more big burst, but make no doubt about it, put this in the Gulf and its TD4...

Can't tell me this doesn't look better then TD2....

[Vortmax1]

If it was anywhere close to land it would already be TD 4!
The LLC is coming along nicely this morning. Need some deeper convection and bang!

[Gustywind]

Looks to still be moving basically due west...I think the models will shift left in the short term around the Islands...after that is still up in the air, but if this is further south, then the connection with the trough may not happen...

Interresting reasoning Ivanhater let's hope that any island will be on 91L path for sure...

[hurricaneCW]

Well I don't think Colin will be getting too far in the future. The upper level conditions look pretty bad for large parts of the Atlantic north of 15N. The dry air is also playing a role and the future TUTT interaction could completely destroy Colin like it did Bonnie. Most models only keep it as a tropical storm so I don't think this disturbance will be more than a tropical storm.

[KWT]

hurricanecw, certainly the models aren't keen on this and there probably will be some shear about, but for the enxt 3 days or so its in good conditions and thats enough time I feel...

Besides, I think people know how I feel about the models forecasted upper air pattern...but for sure its an issue you can't ignore, and I agree it certainly could hold back 91L in 4-5 days time.

[cycloneye]

Just out here is the Microwave image. Not bad looking structure there.

[hurricaneCW]

hurricanecw, certainly the models aren't keen on this and there probably will be some shear about, but for the enxt 3 days or so its in good conditions and thats enough time I feel...

Besides, I think people know how I feel about the models forecasted upper air pattern...but for sure its an issue you can't ignore, and I agree it certainly could hold back 91L in 4-5 days time.

I feel it's going to get ripped apart like Karen of 2007 did except further west. I mean 30+ knots of wind shear will rip apart anything and that TUTT has been persisted just like 2007.

[KWT]

Indeed, I said last night Karn was probably the best case thing that could occur...I just don't feel the shear will be quite that large of an issue either...

Of course a weaker system could well provide it with a greater chance of hitting the islands and the E.coast down the line, so its a two way thing really.

I think we get Colin long before any possible shear does emerge, but I do agree the shear could be an issue.

[Gustywind]

The longer it takes to develop, chances increase for the Leewards to get more closer to the action so to speak.

Right 100% agree

[cycloneye]

Here is the upper atmosphere loop. It doesn't look so friendly for 91L down the road.

[hurricaneCW]

It seems as though a system would have to travel in the southern Caribbean to survive. Any further north and its a death trap. Interesting that despite the strengthening La Nina, it looks a lot like El Nino out there. Oh well, 2nd half of August and September should still be good.

[cycloneye]

TD4 comming at 11?

02/1145 UTC 12.7N 39.8W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[KWT]

Of course what needs to be remembered cycloneye is 91L's own moisture shield will reduce the dry air around it anyway, esp if the system can strengthen quickly enough.

ps, there is certainly some shear down there, of course whats uncertain is whether it remains in situ or lifts....because remember there is a big pattern change occuring in the W.Atlantic in the next 3-5 days as that large upper trough digs quite far south.

[mpic]

That last loop almost looks like 2 storms holding hands...where is the center?

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 91, 2010080212, , BEST, 0, 123N, 403W, 30, 1006, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Winds up to 30kts and pressure down to 1006mbs.

Will they pull the trigger at 11?

[KWT]

TD4 comming at 11?

02/1145 UTC 12.7N 39.8W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

No real excuse for them not to upgrade IMO to be honest, system looks solid so should get upgraded IMO.