ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

Skipping pages, but based solely on the Historical Track map posted at 8AM and nothing else, chances seem greater for it to turn out to sea than come ashore, however, if it does make landfall, it could be strong.

[RL3AO]

Remember...the NHC does not like to upgrade systems during the overnight hours when they are no threat to land (i.e. in the middle of the ocean). They like to wait until they have solid evidence of an LLC...which can usually be seen with VIS imagery. What you see on IR isn't always the whole truth of the matter.

This far east though at 5am eastern, it will have been daylight for 2 or 3 hours over 91L.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like deep convection starting to fire again.

[ROCK]

Looks like deep convection starting to fire again.

not like before....its detaching from the ITCZ....its going to have to make it on its own now....got some dry air ahead, light SAL and a ULL ahead of it....uphill climb, barefoot, in the snow...

[Air Force Met]

Remember...the NHC does not like to upgrade systems during the overnight hours when they are no threat to land (i.e. in the middle of the ocean). They like to wait until they have solid evidence of an LLC...which can usually be seen with VIS imagery. What you see on IR isn't always the whole truth of the matter.

This far east though at 5am eastern, it will have been daylight for 2 or 3 hours over 91L.

I know...that's why I said a GOOD vis loop. By good I mean longer than 2 hours. Remember...when advisories are initiated...things usually start the hour before. Which means 4 am EDT (thats when the conference call would be). That's why I also mentioned that it depends on who is working the mid shift. If you have someone who is very conservative working the mids...2-3 hours of vis won't do it unless it is absolutely obvious. From what I see on the shortwave...it ain't there yet.

[Ivanhater]

[Sanibel]

The system has had its main convection blown west of the center because the easterly steering currents have picked it up and are sending it along now.

[floridasun78]

i have feeling by 6am we will have new td maybe ts by tue morning hurr by wed first we need see it as td

[bvigal]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[bvigal]

I don't see any surprise coming at 5am. Going back to bed.

[Ivanhater]

[Brent]

I'm guessing 8am will be near 100 and TD at 11am... just my thought.

[MGC]

The longer it takes to deepen the greater the threat to the islands. This need to develope and recurve out to sea......MGC

[Ivanhater]

Looks to still be moving basically due west...I think the models will shift left in the short term around the Islands...after that is still up in the air, but if this is further south, then the connection with the trough may not happen...

[superfly]

This looks very close to a TD to me.

[Vortmax1]

Not a peep out of the NHC at 5am this morning. Doesn't look ready to upgrade yet so they're still waiting.
However the MIMIC TPW looks very defined but I doubt there is a surface circulation yet. More in the mid level according to vorticity.
Need a nice visible loop so we can see what's happening.

[ConvergenceZone]

this does seem to be moving west

[Vortmax1]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010


THE
BIG UNCERTAINTY IS A TROPICAL LOW PRES THAT IS EXTREMELY
CONVECTIVE BUT THE ACTUAL LOW LEVEL CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE AND IS ESTIMATED NEAR 11N35W...BUT THE INITIAL PSN IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES...MOST LIKELY NW OF ITS
CURRENT CENTER. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ITENSIFICATION...THUS POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WORDING...AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NW PASSING TO
THE N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FRI.

[KWT]

It maybe heading just a touch north of west west, or it is possible some easterly shear has kicked in...

Still it looks decent IMO right now, just waiting for them to be sure of a LLC, can't be far off now surely!

[Blown Away]

It maybe heading just a touch north of west west, or it is possible some easterly shear has kicked in...

Still it looks decent IMO right now, just waiting for them to be sure of a LLC, can't be far off now surely!

What do you think KWT/Vortmax1? Trough or further west? IMO this will at least be a very close brush for the NE Caribbean, NE Bahamas, and Outer Banks. I still think the models are to fast, 91L still moving in that 10-15 mph range, gonna have to get up to @18-20 mph to make that 5 day position the models show.

Vortmax you and I are about 5 miles apart!