ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#441 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:44 pm

Will pick this back up in the a.m. By the looks of things we will have plenty of long days and nights to debate tracks to death. :wink: Got to get sleep while i can. See you guys tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#442 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:45 pm

Well the GFS is showing a major pattern change for August, with another trough after the first one

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#443 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:48 pm

Ivan, that is more like an early fall pattern....NE might have some nice cool weather in the middle of summer....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#444 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:55 pm

ROCK wrote:Ivan, that is more like an early fall pattern....NE might have some nice cool weather in the middle of summer....


Good because this past July has been the hottest in over a decade, but I highly doubt we'll be entering a trough pattern, very unlikely with a La Nina. I think the gfs is unreliable after 5 days anyway, hell even 3 days is too much.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#445 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:58 pm

Need some cooliant here....High school football 2-a-days start tomorrow and I'll be out in it!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#446 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:59 pm

00Z Canadian much further south and west..actually clipping PR it seems

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#447 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:03 am

That just makes the EURO a little more interesting..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#448 Postby antonlsu » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:04 am

When does the euro come out
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#449 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:06 am

antonlsu wrote:When does the euro come out



fully out by 2am....but you can usually get it on here alittle earlier......aint staying up for it though...ugh
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#450 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:08 am

Canadian 144 hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#451 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:10 am

Maybe it's time for a MODEL release time chart pinned in the forum?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#452 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:29 am

Canadian strikes the Islands then is in the Bahamas with the high building in

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#453 Postby bvigal » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:31 am

I sure don't like the change seen so far on 00z models closer to us, especially BAMD, MM5, left turn just when it looks like it's cleared the islands!
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#454 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:33 am

From the early looks of the 0z models, it looks like "fish for sure" posts were a little premature.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#455 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:35 am

Well both the GFS and Canadian have shifted west from the previous runs, we will see what the Euro shows though...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#456 Postby antonlsu » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:36 am

It could get interesting
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#457 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:36 am

Any "for sure" posts are premature at this point. We are still 5+ days out at this point. Anything that far out can not possibly be "for sure". If it were up to me, the words "for sure" would be stricken and banned from the lexicon of words that can be used in a meteorological context.

Anyways, the 00Z models are interesting. If the trend back to the west continues through the next few runs, then those in the NE Caribbean should start preparing for a possible threat in 3 days.
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#458 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:37 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:Any "for sure" posts are premature at this point. We are still 5+ days out at this point. Anything that far out can not possibly be "for sure". If it were up to me, the words "for sure" would be stricken and banned from the lexicon of words that can be used in a meteorological context.


I completely agree with this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#459 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:54 am

UKMET shifted west about 175 miles..
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#460 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 02, 2010 1:00 am

Weak or Strong?
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