ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[Ivanhater]

174

[Ikester]

GFS nearly stalling it off the Florida coast...hmmmm

174:

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like 91L is getting left behind this time, even though the ridge is stronger.

[ROCK]

I honestly dont see a trof digging that far south in August....it has happened before but it screams against climo...IMO...

[TwisterFanatic]

I'm not sure.. I don't see a trough moving through the country that easy in August. I don't see it..

[gatorcane]

There are a train of lows behind 91L though. 91L may be the beginning of alot of systems to watch over the next couple of weeks...I count at least 3 invests, maybe one TS or depression and a couple of lows...

They can't all go fishing could they?

[Ivanhater]

This is exactly why no one should be confident in any scenario with a complicated setup. But like always, we will hear its going fishing or its going to Texas with every flip flops in the models...

[cycloneye]

I honestly dont see a trof digging that far south in August....it has happened before but it screams against climo...IMO...

Dont forget the trough that dragged Charley. Never say never.

[Ikester]

204...picked up...

[hurricanetrack]

But look at the upper level winds- yes it is a week+ out, but wow, cannot get much more hostile than that:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif

No wonder it is a 1011 mb low in the model surface map. I guess it is possible for the flow to reverse with time but this makes sense with the Euro showing next to nothing.

[weatherguy2]

Stall

[CYCLONE MIKE]

With a run like this how can 91L not get picked up,its almost a certainty acording to this run.

and that Eastern CONUS trough has been absent for like 8 weeks...suddenly it shows up just in time

Had this happened a few weeks ago when Bonnie was around, things would have been alot different.

On the other hand, just s quickly as the trough seems to appear it could just as easily disappear in the next couple of days as well. Also 91L looks a lot weaker more in line with the earlier euro runs could be a sign of things to come, baby steps. Tonights euro run will be very interesting.

[Ivanhater]

Now it wants to go north when the trough flattens out??

[Ikester]

With a run like this how can 91L not get picked up,its almost a certainty acording to this run.

and that Eastern CONUS trough has been absent for like 8 weeks...suddenly it shows up just in time

Had this happened a few weeks ago when Bonnie was around, things would have been alot different.

On the other hand, just s quickly as the trough seems to appear it could just as easily disappear in the next couple of days as well. Also 91L looks a lot weaker more in line with the earlier euro runs could be a sign of things to come, baby steps. Tonights euro run will be very interesting.

I'm with you, Mike...keeping it west. That's what I think.

[TwisterFanatic]

I am starting to think you can throw this run out? It is all over the place

[Ikester]

I am starting to think you can throw this run out? It is all over the place

It certainly doesn't make a lot of meteorological sense though I do tend to agree with a weaker system in the beginning as the Euro has been indicating. I think right now, the Euro is my model of choice. We'll see. Night.

[ROCK]

I honestly dont see a trof digging that far south in August....it has happened before but it screams against climo...IMO...

Dont forget the trough that dragged Charley. Never say never.

I remember Charley's trof.... dug really deep...I remember we had a few that year that gave us folks on the gulf coast some pleasant weather...

[weatherguy2]

Stall at NC and another behind, crazy lol

[gatorcane]

Now it wants to go north when the trough flattens out??

Yeah makes no sense. Best to look at the Euro at this point....

[ROCK]

yeah Ivan, it shouldnt really drive into the ridge like that.....