ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[gatorcane]

much weaker in the 00Z....aligning with the Euro...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Definitely getting further west than the 18z run so far.

[SouthFloridawx]

I am going to bed if anyone else wants to take over...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F02%2F2010+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&fcast=Loop+All

[SouthFloridawx]

BTW, NOGAPS just started...

[Ivanhater]

120

[Ivanhater]

126

[ROCK]

much weaker in the 00Z....aligning with the Euro...

agreed.....man talk about all over the place...consensus went out the window....watch the Euro blow it up and curve it out to sea.....

[Ikester]

much weaker in the 00Z....aligning with the Euro...

agreed.....man talk about all over the place...consensus went out the window....watch the Euro blow it up and curve it out to sea.....

At this rate, I almost expect it. LOL

[gatorcane]

much weaker in the 00Z....aligning with the Euro...

agreed.....man talk about all over the place...consensus went out the window....watch the Euro blow it up and curve it out to sea.....

Yeah Euro seems to generally get the long-term synoptics right more than the GFS...

[Ivanhater]

Trough is even stronger on this run..looks like it will be picked up

[boca]

much weaker in the 00Z....aligning with the Euro...

agreed.....man talk about all over the place...consensus went out the window....watch the Euro blow it up and curve it out to sea.....

Now Thats funny.

[Ikester]

much weaker in the 00Z....aligning with the Euro...

agreed.....man talk about all over the place...consensus went out the window....watch the Euro blow it up and curve it out to sea.....

Yeah Euro seems to generally get the long-term synoptics right more than the GFS...

Not good for the Texas coast per the last 3 runs!

[hurricanetrack]

It is always nice to see cyclonic flow at the 200mb level when looking for an Atlantic hurricane:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

Not going to happen with flow like that! Hostile is an understatement. Maybe La Nina seasons are the new El Nino seasons and neutral years are the years to look for real activity. We'll see but with upper level winds like that- it will look like Ingrid did back in 2007.

[gatorcane]

144 hours...approaching FL but sheared and disorganized....like the Euro keeps forecasting...trough is also really digging across the Eastern CONUS probably will move more NW and then bend north before Florida in this run. Let's see. Look at that system behind 91L though....

[Ivanhater]

144

[boca]

With a run like this how can 91L not get picked up,its almost a certainty acording to this run.

[gatorcane]

With a run like this how can 91L not get picked up,its almost a certainty acording to this run.

and that Eastern CONUS trough has been absent for like 8 weeks...suddenly it shows up just in time

Had this happened a few weeks ago when Bonnie was around, things would have been alot different.

[Ikester]

With a run like this how can 91L not get picked up,its almost a certainty acording to this run.

It's a much weaker system this run, that's why. Keep in mind that the atmosphere is 3D...many thousands of feet thick. A weaker system is not going to feel the affects of something in the upper levels the same way it would if it were stronger.

[blp]

It looks like it will be blocked with High building in.

[weatherguy2]