ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Texas Snowman]

Days and days to go, IMO a myriad of outcomes are possible out of this one...

Not buying nothing yet.

[gatorcane]

Days and days to go, IMO a myriad of outcomes are possible out of this one...

Not buying nothing yet.

I'm also biased towards it become a fish as I am heading to the FL Keys this weekend....

If this were to make a run at the Fl Keys, though it would impact them around the Mon.-Tues. timeframe it would put a damper in the weekend nonetheless...

[Texas Snowman]

Days and days to go, IMO a myriad of outcomes are possible out of this one...

Not buying nothing yet.

I'm also biased towards it become a fish as I am heading to the FL Keys this weekend....

Gatorcane, you know that a trip to the Keys in August can be dicey!

Hopefully, this will be a fish storm.

[Weatherfreak000]

At this point when they pull the trigger is just semantics. Later on in post season they can always modify that sort of thing. We know this is going to likely develop.


My question to YOU, Airforcemet, is what if the system is going to run into an inevitable shear zone, but is at least as good looking as 91L now....or perhaps 92L earlier in the season is a good parallel because it was likely developed but was inevitably going to be hit with the shear. Doesn't that make them as an Organization liable for mistakes? I mean...there is a reason we care what the NHC does after all, me saying it's a TD means nothing.

[thetruesms]

ASCAT suggests further north

[img]http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/ascat_ear_25_prod/products/20100801_23_5.gif[img]

Wow, an ASCAT pass that didn't completely whiff! Of course, it didn't catch everything I'd like to see, but it does seem to imply that our circulation is still rather broad and needs to work some stuff out yet. It's really only a matter of time, though.

[gatorcane]

Bermuda could be a target looking at the latest models....in that case it would not be a fish.

[Air Force Met]

At this point when they pull the trigger is just semantics. Later on in post season they can always modify that sort of thing. We know this is going to likely develop.


My question to YOU, Airforcemet, is what if the system is going to run into an inevitable shear zone, but is at least as good looking as 91L now....or perhaps 92L earlier in the season is a good parallel. Doesn't that make them as an Organization liable for mistakes? I mean...there is a reason we care what the NHC does after all, me saying it's a TD means nothing.

Not sure exactly what your question is.

[gatorcane]

Days and days to go, IMO a myriad of outcomes are possible out of this one...

Not buying nothing yet.

I'm also biased towards it become a fish as I am heading to the FL Keys this weekend....

Gatorcane, you know that a trip to the Keys in August can be dicey!

Hopefully, this will be a fish storm.

Yeah, I'm about 80% confident I will be OKAY in the keys at this point, but will watch this in case models do change.

[cycloneye]

00z Surface analysis. Low is still partially in the ITCZ but eventually, it will get out of the convergence zone.

[SouthFloridawx]

We'll have to wait for the model run... after it's official for the models to get a better handle on this anyway. I wouldn't set anything in stone at this point. Who knows what that Shortwave trough will do later on in the week. So many if's at this point, I would set anything into stone.

[boca]

Yesterday the models had 91L moving west towards Florida. Today towards Bermuda.tomorrow who knows. This system has to develop first.That ULL NNE of Puerto Rico will play havac on 91L thats for sure.

[ROCK]

the nice convection earlier tops have warmed.....some new cold top forming to the west but not a potent as before. I would say about a 2/3rds out of the ITCZ...still drawing some moisture from the south...TD tomorrow for sure....IMO its not going to ramp up as quickly as some of the models are predicting however I will withhold judegment until the EURO tonight....still has some work to do...

[gatorcane]

the nice convection earlier tops have warmed.....some new cold top forming to the west but not a potent as before. I would say about a 2/3rds out of the ITCZ...still drawing some moisture from the south...TD tomorrow for sure....IMO its not going to ramp up as quickly as some of the models are predicting however I will withhold judegment until the EURO tonight....still has some work to do...

The 00Z GFS has backed WAAYYY off on development within the next 12 hours....

[Gustywind]

I don't know how people are saying Fish (or not) while we have not at least a TD in our hands??? We should focus in my humble opinion first on the intensity much more than the track! We have enough time to confirmed that or not.
Regardless, us in the islands should be on our guard during the next couple of days with this developping system 91L. I advice you to be vigilant all islanders of the Lesser Antilles, be aware.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

I don't know how people are saying Fish (or not) while we have not at least a TD in our hands??? We should focus in my humble opinion first on the intensity much more than the track! We have enough time to confirmed that or not.
Regardless, us in the islands should be on our guard during the next couple of days with this developping system 91L. I advice you to be vigilant all islanders of the Lesser Antilles, be aware.
Gustywind

You are right 100%.

[caribepr]

Sometimes I wonder, what if the Leewards were located farther NE. It almost seems like where they are located right now, they usually miss most systems as they pass to the east.

You might find this site interesting in reference to how often throughout recorded hurricane history these tiny land masses in the Leewards have gotten hit (a map of the islands making up the Leewards is included) - http://www.hurricanecity.com/cities.htm

[Gustywind]

I don't know how people are saying Fish (or not) while we have not at least a TD in our hands??? We should focus in my humble opinion first on the intensity much more than the track! We have enough time to confirmed that or not.
Regardless, us in the islands should be on our guard during the next couple of days with this developping system 91L. I advice you to be vigilant all islanders of the Lesser Antilles, be aware.
Gustywind

You are right 100%.

Thanks my friend te felecito Luis. I feel that there too much excitement on 91L that's why i don't have post anymore. Why all this noise? Seems that people are off topic on this one given my untrained eyes ! Let's no deviate on pure personnal speculations but stay on serious amateur analysis . We have plenty of time to observe all the gimmicks of 91L.
Gustywind

[ROCK]

the nice convection earlier tops have warmed.....some new cold top forming to the west but not a potent as before. I would say about a 2/3rds out of the ITCZ...still drawing some moisture from the south...TD tomorrow for sure....IMO its not going to ramp up as quickly as some of the models are predicting however I will withhold judegment until the EURO tonight....still has some work to do...

The 00Z GFS has backed WAAYYY off on development within the next 12 hours....

well there you have it....I giant wrench in the equation....

[Gustywind]

[Sanibel]

This thing disappeared and then re-appeared with black IR. We'll see if it re-appears again. It looks like it is curving up and getting moving WNW but now has little convection.


Real spin evident on Shortwave:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html