ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

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gatorcane
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#361 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:28 pm

00Z GFS running soon......my guess it shows a typical recurve scenario around 65-70W or so....

00Z GFS from last night, future Colin approaching the East Coast of Florida:

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#362 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:33 pm

Geez... some of you are gonna confuse some people acting like this is already set in stone..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#363 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:33 pm

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Evil Jeremy
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#364 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:34 pm

Just wondering, has the GFS Para taken over yet?
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Re:

#365 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:35 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Just wondering, has the GFS Para taken over yet?


Yes,started on July 28.
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Re:

#366 Postby lester » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:35 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Just wondering, has the GFS Para taken over yet?


yes last week it took over
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#367 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:35 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Image


at 06 hours, quite disorganized...

by 12 hours 00Z GFS seems to lose 91L. WOW. Unbelievable. Dry air to blame? I guess we can throw this run out the window. It's not even seeing 91L.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#368 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:40 pm

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#369 Postby lester » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:42 pm

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#370 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:42 pm

24 hours from now and 91L is nothing more than an open wave. This is very interesting indeed......also the main convection in the wave is gaining lattitude...

Will be interesting if 91L poofs some overnight if the GFS is correct...I actually don't believe the GFS though. I think it won't be poofed by the morning.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#371 Postby blp » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:42 pm

Its there, you need to look at the vorticity maps. The PARA has been having issues reflecting well on the pressure maps.

Image

by 12 hours 00Z GFS seems to lose 91L. WOW. Unbelievable. Dry air to blame? I guess we can throw this run out the window. It's not even seeing 91L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#372 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:43 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#373 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:45 pm

850mb Vorticity
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#374 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:47 pm

I haven't heard of the Para GFS, where can I find information on that?
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#375 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:47 pm

Is it me or has the GFS backed way off on development? We are 36 hours out and nothing but a wave...no surface low. Wave headed WNW.
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#376 Postby lester » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:48 pm

Image

vortmax still there
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#377 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:51 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I haven't heard of the Para GFS, where can I find information on that?


From what I know, the Para GFS is a new version of the GFS, an upgrade of sorts. It replaced the old GFS within the past week. For months though, the Para GFS was being ran with the main GFS, likely for testing.
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#378 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:52 pm

Gaining lattitude at 42 hours. No closed low still....just a strong tropical wave at this point.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#379 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:53 pm

Can we stop jumping on and off the bandwagon with every frame that comes in?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#380 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:54 pm

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