ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[KWT]

Well I think given its at 90% right now, the GFDL is probably in lala land...but I think given what the GFS does with it, I think its fair to say it wouldn't be much different to the HWRF at this stage.

Ronjon, for sure and that post is a very good one, though I'll have to strongly disagree about the whole formation stuff...

We'll know probably as soon as 36-48hrs whats the most likely solution, if it does speed up and lifts to the WNW from the off, think the CMC scores a major victory as well as the UKMO...but thats way too soon to call.

[Nimbus]

There is some dry air east of the islands but so far the ULL north of the islands hasn't shown any sign of amplifying or digging. The ULL may even initially help ventilate. It would be great if there does end up being some shear before the islands. If 91L intensifies rapidly and builds an anticyclone over itself that may inhibit the shear though.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.

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WHXX01 KWBC 020048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC MON AUG 2 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100802 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100802  0000   100802  1200   100803  0000   100803  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.1N  37.4W   10.9N  39.6W   12.2N  42.6W   13.7N  46.2W
BAMD    10.1N  37.4W   10.8N  39.8W   11.9N  42.5W   13.1N  45.3W
BAMM    10.1N  37.4W   10.8N  40.1W   11.8N  43.1W   13.1N  46.2W
LBAR    10.1N  37.4W   10.7N  39.8W   11.6N  42.7W   12.5N  46.1W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          38KTS          48KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          38KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100804  0000   100805  0000   100806  0000   100807  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.5N  50.0W   19.7N  57.8W   23.4N  64.2W   25.9N  68.1W
BAMD    14.4N  48.1W   16.7N  53.2W   18.8N  57.1W   19.9N  58.9W
BAMM    14.7N  49.5W   18.3N  55.7W   22.0N  60.1W   24.8N  62.2W
LBAR    13.6N  49.6W   15.3N  55.9W   17.7N  60.2W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        56KTS          68KTS          69KTS          65KTS
DSHP        56KTS          68KTS          69KTS          65KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.1N LONCUR =  37.4W DIRCUR = 289DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =   9.6N LONM12 =  35.8W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =   9.2N LONM24 =  34.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[cycloneye]

00z SHIP data

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             *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL912010  08/02/10  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    34    38    48    56    64    68    70    69    65    65
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    34    38    48    56    64    68    70    69    65    65
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    30    32    39    47    54    59    61    60    57    54

SHEAR (KT)        13    11    14    12     4     7     9    13    18    21    26    22    24
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0    -1    -2     0     2     1     1    -1     0     0     3     0
SHEAR DIR         52    53    46    50    71   346   295   295   272   273   267   290   270
SST (C)         28.7  28.6  28.5  28.4  28.3  28.2  28.4  28.6  28.6  28.3  28.3  28.4  28.2
POT. INT. (KT)   147   147   145   144   143   142   145   148   147   142   141   142   138
ADJ. POT. INT.   150   152   150   150   149   147   150   150   145   136   131   127   121
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C)       5     5     6     7     7     8     9     9    10    10    10    10    10
700-500 MB RH     79    79    75    73    71    68    66    64    60    60    59    62    58
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     6     7     7     7    10    10    11    13    13    13    11    13
850 MB ENV VOR    29    25    18    13    14    15    12     0   -19   -37   -44   -57   -56
200 MB DIV        91    69    38    19    18    20    20    10    32    74    40    11     8
LAND (KM)       1473  1489  1431  1329  1243  1139  1114  1082  1009   801   714   730   802
LAT (DEG N)     10.1  10.5  10.8  11.3  11.8  13.1  14.7  16.4  18.3  20.1  22.0  23.5  24.8
LONG(DEG W)     37.4  38.8  40.1  41.6  43.1  46.2  49.5  52.8  55.7  58.3  60.1  61.4  62.2
STM SPEED (KT)    11    14    14    16    16    17    18    17    16    14    11     8     7
HEAT CONTENT      35    31    34    34    33    44    57    67    58    48    33    39    34

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/  7      CX,CY:  -6/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  678  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  79.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   6.  13.  21.  26.  31.  34.  35.  36.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   4.   6.   7.   8.   7.   5.   3.   1.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -7.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   9.  13.  23.  31.  39.  43.  45.  44.  41.  40.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST     08/02/10  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  10.8 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  47.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 125.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  78.4 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  16.4 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  33.4 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    41% is   3.2 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    20% is   2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    12% is   2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     7% is   2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST     08/02/10  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST     08/02/2010  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


[Recurve]

Yep, the Bams put it to hurricane strength pretty quickly and scoot it out of the tropics before it gets past 70W or even 65 W except for BAMs.

[Dean4Storms]

The official forecast on Ike never had it going out to sea, there were some models that took it up the east coast but the majority kept it on a westward track and the NHC did split the difference a bit with it showing a more NW turn out just east of the Bahamas and of course that never happened.

[AJC3]

The official forecast on Ike never had it going out to sea, there were some models that took it up the east coast but the majority kept it on a westward track and the NHC did split the difference a bit with it showing a more NW turn out just east of the Bahamas and of course that never happened.

Indeed. It has already been pointed out several times within this thread, which showed model and official NHC forecasts, that Ike was never "supposed" to recurve out to sea, and that there never was a model consensus that showed it going out to sea.

Sort of like the Andrew "sudden change in track" myth that seems to be pervasive in some circles.

[Dean4Storms]

The official forecast on Ike never had it going out to sea, there were some models that took it up the east coast but the majority kept it on a westward track and the NHC did split the difference a bit with it showing a more NW turn out just east of the Bahamas and of course that never happened.

Indeed. It has already been pointed out several times within this thread, which showed model and official NHC forecasts, that Ike was never "supposed" to recurve out to sea, and that there never was a model consensus that showed it going out to sea.

Sort of like the Andrew "sudden change in track" myth that seems to be pervasive in some circles.

I think some get forecast cones confused with model tracks not realizing there is a split going on there or at least some caution to the outliers which gives the last day forecasts in the cones a bend at times.

[southerngale]

Yeah, I didn't go back to read the original comment, but perhaps they were confusing some of the model runs with the official track?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Still staying in the tracking more westward camp As fast and much as the models are shifting east today just think once the trough does develop and start dropping down, if at all, the models are strengthening it to much and will start to shift more westward. Remember as fast as they shift east they can just as easily shift back west in a couple of days.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z Euro will be interesting. If it shows a hurricane still heading West into Florida, then that certainly will bring some attention. I think it will shift right also though showing a hurricane recurving out to sea. Got to give kudos to the UKMET and CMC, which sniffed out the weakness before the other models.

Something is smelling rather fishy....

[Ikester]

I agree with a westward track, too. I can remember several on here, amateurs and others, that the panhandle of Florida needs to keep a close eye on Alex because the deep trough the GFS was indicating could pick it up. It never happened. I would ask that those that are already calling for a fish to remember the Euro....which for three runs has consistently showed a track to the central and western GOM. Not all models show a fish and the GFDL and HWRF are cousins of the GFS.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Time will tell, which fortunately with this one is on our side. Everyone has time to watch and make the necessary preparations if future Colin comes a calling. This is a very touchy forecast and looks like it will all come down to speed and timing issues.

[ConvergenceZone]

We need to STILL watch it even though it seems to be looking like a "fish" more and more by the hour...
When all the models start agreeing with one another, that's a good sign...

[gatorcane]

Time will tell, which fortunately with this one is on our side. Everyone has time to watch and make the necessary preparations if future Colin comes a calling. This is a very touchy forecast and looks like it will all come down to speed and timing issues.

Not sure about that. Models are unanimous in bringing it WNW then a bend to the NW east of the Leewards. If you look at 91L right now you can see why. 24 hours ago it was around 9N now look where it is at. It is gaining lattitude.

Once it is far enough NE of the Leewards, it is likely to hit a weakness if you look at climatology. To impact the SE US, it can't pass to far from the NE Leewards....

[Ikester]

I can't believe so many people are saying 'fish'. You guys are assuming that this thing is going to gear up in 24 hours and become a full fledged hurricane in a day or two. This thing still has some organizing to do and any TUTT that gets in its way will only hinder deepening. So far this year, the ridge has been continuously under done. Many of you guys calling 'fish' on this were the very ones that said, 'oh I hope and pray Pensacola is watching and preparing for Bonnie!' The heights are forecast to lower over the central gulf next week and build over the SE (at least right now). I'm not making any kind of call right now. I believe the Outer Banks of NC and Bermuda have just as much chance of seeing a 'cyclone of strength' as Mexico does. Model hugging is rather annoying because people's opinions shift 4 times a day with each model.

[Ivanhater]

We may be seeing the start of a trend on some of the models a the end...Notice the bend back west (even SW) on some of the models, including the TVCN and Canadian and BAMD. The NHC really likes the TVCN...just something to look out for..

[Vortex]

The 500mb 00Z NAM is stronger than ever with the weakness around 60W in about 3-4 days. In fact turns off to the NW if not NNW....I t may make it to around 25-30 N before it stalls and bends back west but then likely eventually gets picked up by a trough...At this point, I just don't see any impact towards the islands or US. I think the remaining 00Z guidance will stongly confirm and other than maybe Bermuda I see little impact IMO from this system ever...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

The 500mb 00Z NAM is stronger than ever with the weakness around 60W in about 3-4 days. In fact turns off to the NW if not NNW....I t may make it to around 25-30 N before it stalls and bends back west but then likely eventually gets picked up by a trough...At this point, I just don't see any impact towards the islands or US. I think the remaining 00Z guidance will stongly confirm and other than maybe Bermuda I see little impact IMO from this system ever...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Yeah, not a surprise seems to models are trending towards a big weakness developing (by the way this is a complete reversal of the long-wave pattern for the past 6 weeks or so, just in time thankfully), just waiting for the Euro to also show a recurve and then we can say Colin is little to no threat to the islands or U.S...

[Ikester]

The 500mb 00Z NAM is stronger than ever with the weakness around 60W in about 3-4 days. In fact turns off to the NW if not NNW....I t may make it to around 25-30 N before it stalls and bends back west but then likely eventually gets picked up by a trough...At this point, I just don't see any impact towards the islands or US. I think the remaining 00Z guidance will stongly confirm and other than maybe Bermuda I see little impact IMO from this system ever...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Yeah, not a surprise, just waiting for the Euro to also show a recurve and then we can say Colin is little to no threat to the islands or U.S...

That's why I'm skeptical...it's the beginning of August.