ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I think bermuda may also get into the picture.

Is the NE Caribbean looking better now than 12 hours ago or still we have to keep watching the track it takes?

[wzrgirl1]

Looks fishy to me. A big change from this morning.

[KWT]

Cycloneye, lets just say the NHC graphic (I'm guessing that mayb the consensus model or something?) shows this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... 5_1200.png

Close enough to certainly need watching if thats the case.

[jaxfladude]

So a track not unlike Hurricane Dora(1964) may still be possible?

Based on the current models, it has a chance of making landfall where Dora made landfall. But anything's possible, and the models can change over the next few days.

So true!
Hope the best track for all concerned happens. Totally misses any and all landmass.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm about to start counting how many it's going to/probably going to fish posts. A lot of people act if the track is completely set in stone 7-10 days away. Nothing is certain right now, the strength, the track, the effects of the TUTT, and the strength of the upper level troughs.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
WTNT21 KNGU 012300
011800 Position Near 9.8N 36.3W
Moving West Northwest at 15 knots

where'd you get that from? just curious..

Sorry about the slow response time.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi?ATCF_NAME=al912010.gif&PROD=gif&SENSOR=&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&DIR=/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc10/ATL/91L.INVEST/ssmi/ir1km&SIZE=full&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Active&CURRENT=al912010.20100802010300.gif&YEAR=2010&MO=Aug&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=91L.INVEST&ACTIVES=10-ATL-91L.INVEST,10-CPAC-92C.INVEST,10-WPAC-96W.INVEST,

[perk]

Looks fishy to me. A big change from this morning.

Not so fast, we don't even have a fix on the center. Those models may tell a totally different story in a couple of days.

[wzrgirl1]

Yes but the models are starting to pick up on a trough digging down which it didn't pick up on yesterday. Hard to ignore that.

[Recurve]

I'm about to start counting how many it's going to/probably going to fish posts. A lot of people act if the track is completely set in stone 7-10 days away. Nothing is certain right now, the strength, the track, the effects of the TUTT, and the strength of the upper level troughs.

And if course it's not even a storm yet. Can't be a fishy if it doesn't take the bait.


From where it is, if it develops slowly, less chance of it turning out to make a complete run for it, since our friends in the islands may well be affected, even if it winds up that no other land is.

And I don't know anyone in Bermuda but we should think of them too when we say "fish."
Or maybe not -- little rich tax haven with pink beaches. They can watch out for themselves. < joke>

[ronjon]

SSD Dvorak:

01/2345 UTC 10.0N 37.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

Best Track 10.1N 37.4W 91L

Both these positions put the estimated center on the SW fringe of the heavy mass of convection. The turning I see on IR that some are calling an optical illusion is very close to the SSD Dvorak position. Neither of these two locations are centered in the mass of convection so I'm wondering what others are seeing on a LLC forming. Or is the thinking a LLC is forming further north under the main convection? If so, those position estimates above would be way off.

[TwisterFanatic]

Yes but the models are starting to pick up on a trough digging down which it didn't pick up on yesterday. Hard to ignore that.

Yes, but that is still 7-10 days away. Anything can happen

[Recurve]

SSD Dvorak:

01/2345 UTC 10.0N 37.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

Best Track 10.1N 37.4W 91L

Both these positions put the estimated center on the SW fringe of the heavy mass of convection. The turning I see on IR that some are calling an optical illusion is very close to the SSD Dvorak position. Neither of these two locations are centered in the mass of convection so I'm wondering what others are seeing on a LLC forming. Or is the thinking a LLC is forming further north under the main convection? If so, those position estimates above would be way off.

I don't see an LLC after looking at lots of sat loops, but I think the focus is close to best track numbers, under what was the westernmost blob.

[abajan]

Of course, there’s the dog to consider. (He seems to be trying to tear 91L to shreds!)

[ronjon]

SSD Dvorak:

01/2345 UTC 10.0N 37.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

Best Track 10.1N 37.4W 91L

Both these positions put the estimated center on the SW fringe of the heavy mass of convection. The turning I see on IR that some are calling an optical illusion is very close to the SSD Dvorak position. Neither of these two locations are centered in the mass of convection so I'm wondering what others are seeing on a LLC forming. Or is the thinking a LLC is forming further north under the main convection? If so, those position estimates above would be way off.

I don't see an LLC after looking at lots of sat loops, but I think the focus is close to best track numbers, under what was the westernmost blob.

Even the best track location would be on the SW edge of the convective blob.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn-s.html

[SFLcane]

SSD Dvorak:

01/2345 UTC 10.0N 37.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

Best Track 10.1N 37.4W 91L

Both these positions put the estimated center on the SW fringe of the heavy mass of convection. The turning I see on IR that some are calling an optical illusion is very close to the SSD Dvorak position. Neither of these two locations are centered in the mass of convection so I'm wondering what others are seeing on a LLC forming. Or is the thinking a LLC is forming further north under the main convection? If so, those position estimates above would be way off.

8:05PM Special feature...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 22N39W TO 11N36W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 5N-28N
BETWEEN 35W-42W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE SRN EXTENT
OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N36W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

[cycloneye]

I would not let my guard down here in the NE Caribbean even though the models miss the islands as anything can happen in the movement and in the upper pattern that can change those model tracks more to the left with time.

[wzrgirl1]

Of course, there’s the dog to consider. (He seems to be trying to tear 91L to shreds!)

'

That's very funny actually. He isn't doing a very good job of it. Seems as if it's consolidating even more.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes but the models are starting to pick up on a trough digging down which it didn't pick up on yesterday. Hard to ignore that.

I know what you are saying, and yes, the track is leaning more to out to sea than before, and it's very possible that's where it may go, but we need to keep a close eye on it just in case it does something unexpected....

[Ivanhater]

SSD Dvorak:

01/2345 UTC 10.0N 37.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

Best Track 10.1N 37.4W 91L

Both these positions put the estimated center on the SW fringe of the heavy mass of convection. The turning I see on IR that some are calling an optical illusion is very close to the SSD Dvorak position. Neither of these two locations are centered in the mass of convection so I'm wondering what others are seeing on a LLC forming. Or is the thinking a LLC is forming further north under the main convection? If so, those position estimates above would be way off.

ASCAT suggests further north

[caribepr]

I'm about to start counting how many it's going to/probably going to fish posts. A lot of people act if the track is completely set in stone 7-10 days away. Nothing is certain right now, the strength, the track, the effects of the TUTT, and the strength of the upper level troughs.

Actually, I think most people who follow storms seriously, and many on S2K do, are in a study, watch, wait and prepare accordingly mode, hurricane CW.

Thanks for the good, factual and informed info continuing to be put here, as usual. It helps a lot while I'm not at home!