ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[sjmballer]

if i remember right didnt all the IKE models show him being a fish also??

you are right IKE was suppose to get picked up and follow HANNAH

[CYCLONE MIKE]

if i remember right didnt all the IKE models show him being a fish also??

Here are a few saved images I have from Hurricane Ike showing model plots from various points of the storm's life:

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... orm_09.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... m_09_3.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... m_09_5.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... m_09_6.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... m_09_7.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... m_09_9.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... _09_13.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... _09_18.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... _09_22.gif

At no time did it really look like IKE would be a "fish" (except for a few stray individual model runs), but it did look like the storm might try and turn northward well to the east of where it actually did (into FL instead of TX).

Never showed it being a true fish, but did keep showing a curve to the north at the end of every run all the time he just kept tracking west. Guess they eventually got it right though.

[AJC3]

if i remember right didnt all the IKE models show him being a fish also??

you are right IKE was suppose to get picked up and follow HANNAH

As has already been pointed out...this is COMPLETELY untrue.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Ivanhater]

18z HWRF

[ronjon]

The GFS may be exhibiting its bias of deepening troughs too much but we'll see over the next few days with the mid-level steering. So far this year, the southern US 500 mb ridge has held strong and built back longer than the GFS wants to show with the European model having a much better grasp on the strength of upper level ridging. This may turn out to be a classic GFS vs Euro showdown again. Or the GFS is on to a major pattern change. Or out to lunch.

[KWT]

I wonder what that same animation would look like with Dean...

Anyway the models are in fair agreement not on a recurve, the ECM doesn't but that not because it shows different synoptics, indeed its very close to 18z indeed, but because its just very weak with this system.

[SFLcane]

I wonder what that same animation would look like with Dean...

Anyway the models are in fair agreement not on a recurve, the ECM doesn't but that not because it shows different synoptics, indeed its very close to 18z indeed, but because its just very weak with this system.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/DEAN_graphics.shtml

[KWT]

The GFS may be exhibiting its bias of deepening troughs too much but we'll see over the next few days with the mid-level steering. So far this year, the southern US 500 mb ridge has held strong and built back longer than the GFS wants to show with the European model having a much better grasp on the strength of upper level ridging. This may turn out to be a classic GFS vs Euro showdown again. Or the GFS is on to a major pattern change. Or out to lunch.

Interesting point, but my feeling is the fact the UKMO is also on the right hand side is very telling, its usually the one that overdoes ridging, plus the ECM really is as I said very close synoptically to the GFS, just alot weaker in terms of strength.

Ivanhater, look how strong it starts this system off at, no wonder the model jumps NNW pretty much from the get-go...looks a good deal too far east to me!

[ronjon]

I wonder what that same animation would look like with Dean...

Anyway the models are in fair agreement not on a recurve, the ECM doesn't but that not because it shows different synoptics, indeed its very close to 18z indeed, but because its just very weak with this system.

Have to disagreed with you on that one KWT - I don't think the Euro diggs the trough nearly is far south as the GFS nor lingers it as long as the GFS.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z HWRF

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... 8_wind.png

once again, way too much initial northward motion, likely because it develops this thing way too fast. These models are programmed to assume this is already a tropical cyclone, right? If so, that would explain it...

EDIT: Another note, it looks like it starts it out alright, but then magically displaces it back to the northeast. Is this another vorticity center or is it an error...can someone explain this to me?

[Ivanhater]

Yep..HWRF and GFDL are far more reliable when a storm has developed..

[Extremeweatherguy]

For those comparing 91L to last year's Bill, here is a quick look at the model plots of both systems while they were in the same general starting vicinity..

91L: http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... orm_91.gif

Bill: http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... orm_03.gif

The future track of 91L appears much hazier than with Bill, IMO. While located in the same general location as 91L is currently, Bill was clearly much more of a re-curve candidate.

[Macrocane]

If it ends up being a fish I think that we will have to give merit to the Canadian.

[KWT]

Have to disagreed with you on that one KWT - I don't think the Euro diggs the trough nearly is far south as the GFS nor lingers it as long as the GFS.

Yeah thats fair enough, the thing that makes me a little more comfortable with the GFS solution is the fact the UKMO model does what it does...notice on the Bill track how it was left of the rest of the models, the UKMO usually handles upper highs great but isn't nearly as good with upper troughs, so whilst it maybe too agressive, the fact it doesn't get that far west with the upper high gives some credit...

Then again the 12z UKMO moves at 30mph tomorrow...so yeah...

[ronjon]

Have to disagreed with you on that one KWT - I don't think the Euro diggs the trough nearly is far south as the GFS nor lingers it as long as the GFS.

Yeah thats fair enough, the thing that makes me a little more comfortable with the GFS solution is the fact the UKMO model does what it does...notice on the Bill track how it was left of the rest of the models, the UKMO usually handles upper highs great but isn't nearly as good with upper troughs, so whilst it maybe too agressive, the fact it doesn't get that far west with the upper high gives some credit...

Then again the 12z UKMO moves at 30mph tomorrow...so yeah...

Actually, KWT, I went back to the 00Z and the 12Z 500 mb charts for todays Euro and they are nearly exactly the same at 168 and 192 hours with the only difference the strength of 91L. I understand your point about the UKM but didn't that model have one of the poorest track records at the 5 day time frame. I'm starting to think 91L won't develop nearly as quickly as it looked maybe 12 hours ago since its so large. That may cause an adjustment down the road on the tracks.

[Blown Away]

Yep, gets picked up

156 HOUR LOCATION:

288 HOUR LOCATION:

Gonna take 6 days to go from the 156 hour location to the 288 hour location, ummm very unlikely IMO.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Then again the 12z UKMO moves at 30mph tomorrow...so yeah...

Besides thinking the models are overplaying the trough, the above statement statement by KWT is another huge player. Most models are showing 91L moving wnw almost immediately and then accelerating to 25 mph or so for a couple of days. don't think it will happen tomorrow or at all.

[AtlanticWind]

If models could predict tracks 7 to 10 days out preparing for storms would be much easier, but storms rarely hit the center of a 5 day cone.
long range forecasts should be taken as a best Guess only.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL: FAIL

[TwisterFanatic]

LMAO