ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[fd122]

I hope this system (if it develops) just eventually turns and heads into the North Atlantic. I have an important flight to catch on Saturday.

[KWT]

I'm hoping this system turns into a Category 5 that recurves around 70W. I don't want anyone to be impacted by this system, but I'm hoping it becomes a very powerful, massive, major hurricane. New loops show thunderstorms beginning to explode over the apparent center. That is right on time with the D-max approaching.

Yeah I agree, would love to see this one go on and become a powerful system but we will see...

The shear issue certainly is something to bear in mind once it gets to around 17-20N but thats some way away yet I feel, could easily get a strong system before then.

[Steve]

Thanks 57 - a lot left to be determined with 91L. Noted at the end of your post (Guess I'll be busy the next 10-14 days (and through Thanksgiving).)

Yeah, almost everyone I respect has been sounding the alarm for a while now. Looks like things are shaping up to make for an insane next 10-12 weeks or so. Some posters seem to forget that once you hit the peak, things can pop literally overnight and often do. And if I'm reading 2010's signals properly, interest will soon be at the 2002, 2004, 2005 & 2008 levels. Half the board will be living on caffeine and adrenaline. I was never a doom-caster or anything, but you can't help being impressed with the setup for this hurricane season. <--- the preceding is just my opinion

[Dean4Storms]

This system most likely will be a large system with all the water in front of it and the size it is already just as a Wave!

[Dean4Storms]

What appears to be the center/LLC looks to be near 10.2n 36.5w and moving WNW from what I can tell.

[Ptarmigan]

Well, I'm thinking it's safe to say that the question is not 'if' 91L will develop, but 'when'. Hopefully, NHC lets it fully separate from the ITCZ and gain a well-defined LLC before upgrading today. Hard to be confident in that given the recent TWO wording. I think it will be a TD by sunrise tomorrow for the first visible imagery, though.

I notice that the latest SHIPS output has some quite strong shear past 72 hrs, up to 36 kts at 108 hrs. Obviously seeing that upper low north of the eastern Caribbean. Question is - will it really have that much influence on a developing TC. Will it move out of the way? GFS seems to move it out as 91L approaches. But there's a chance it could impart enough shear to weaken 91L/Colin as it nears the islands.

Question is, where will it eventually make its final landfall. I'm thinking somewhere between Tampico, MX and Iceland, presently. Sort of centered along the SE U.S. Coast. Will it cross into the Gulf? Maybe. Models have been indicating a significant weakness in the ridge to the north after it passes around 65W. Will it actually be there? Maybe.

First thing to determine, assuming it develops, is the potential threat to the islands of the NE Caribbean. It's so far south, it's hard to believe that it'll miss the NE Caribbean as many models suggest. Regardless, watch out Bahamas then Florida to the Carolinas, as once it gets away from the upper low it could strengthen quickly. Won't even speculate on final intensity yet, it's still 1600+ miles east of the Caribbean.

Guess I'll be busy the next 10-14 days (and through Thanksgiving).

Well said! Hope, we don't get one on Thanksgiving for sure.

[Ptarmigan]

This system most likely will be a large system with all the water in front of it and the size it is already just as a Wave!

I think this will be a large tropical cyclone. I think this season could be the season of large tropical cyclones.

[KWT]

The whole evolution is quite interesting for this system and yeah it does look quite large, though the outer convection looks like its starting to weaken now though somewhat as the central convection builds up.

[loup-garou]

The huge hurricanes are always the worst it seems. Even when they are only a cat 2 they bring a tremendous surge that breaks homes and businesses. A ruinous large hurricane will fill any community it hits with misery, poverty and despair.

[Blown Away]

IMO, Colin will be here soon and he will be the classic giant Cape Verde system chugging across the Atlantic. Many legendary systems started in the area of 91L.

[thetruesms]

I've got to admit, this is getting together faster than I had expected. We're at a spot where I thought we'd be sometime tomorrow. Obviously, the first big challenge is getting this detached fully from the ITCZ and on its own. Its development and forward speed will be pretty important in how we're going to come up with that shear zone seen in the models down the road . . . if it will be there at all. Certainly, the islands out front need to pay very close attention, as they'll be the first to potentially be in this thing's sights. Beyond that, I think everyone needs to keep an eye on things (without getting too worked out about it, of course). I've still got that gut feeling about Florida, but I think it's actually less strong than it was earlier. Hopefully my gut is wrong, because that will mean many more hours for me, and a likely disappearance from here. Although I am fortunate compared to wxman57, since things only get hectic for me if Florida's involved.

[cycloneye]

Here are the past tracks from the 18z best track position of 9.8N-36.3W.Some biggies there.

[Hurricane Andrew]

What do you peeps think it will be for the 8PM?

I say, remain 80% and have the all famous 'TD t any time' Statement.

[wxman57]

Here are the past tracks from the 18z best track position of 9.8N-36.3W.Some biggies there.

http://i27.tinypic.com/29ntqir.jpg

Told you! Final landfall somewhere between Tampico (or south of Tampico) to Iceland.

Convection a bit weak for an upgrade, and LLC is uncertain. It does seem to be disassociating from the ITCZ slowly.

Not much to see here this evening. Time for dinner.

[jaxfladude]

Here are the past tracks from the 18z best track position of 9.8N-36.3W.Some biggies there.

http://i27.tinypic.com/29ntqir.jpg

Dora is among them.

[ColinDelia]

Some colder tops coming back again.

[KWT]

Those colder cloud tops probably aren't all that far away from any center but as Wxman57 said the center is a little uncertain, I've not seen any clear evidence yet of one but I'm sure tomorrow we will see...

[Recurve]

Thanks cyclone for the track perspective. Wish we could just delete Andrew from the database.

What Wxman said ( "...I'm thinking somewhere between Tampico, MX and Iceland, presently...") is priceless, I'll try to keep it in mind for at least the next week. Only the Antilles folks are close enough at this point to be following the models as if they mean something. Where a model points at 9 -12 days is some indication of where the storm might be if the synoptics are exactly like modeled at the exact time they are modeled, but it's unlikely that they will be.

I'll say long term the threat areas are Turks, southern Bahamas. Less so for South Florida unless I see a monster ridge and no TUTTs or troughs. Carolinas might eventually be on guard but that probably means also that Florida will be holding its breath. All in all, as a wild-eyed guess, I still see nearly 50 chance of fish -- not a total fish because it'll be hard to completely miss the Antilles unless it really ramps up and gets strongly pulled north, but perhaps after that.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[vbhoutex]

91L is still moving slowly from what I see and still hasn't consolidated as much as I think it would need to in order to really get going. I'll go out on a limb here and say TD sometime tomorrow.
In all seriousness, like I said this system is moving slowly. What I haven't seen discussed lately is the SAL. Is it gone? I don't think so. Is there more coming off of Africa fast enough to impact(catch up with) this system and maybe even slow its' development into a TC past tomorrow? Just some thoughts I have since the SAL has impacted several of the systems significantly.

[KWT]

It sure seems to be moving fairly slowly still doesn't it...not sure what that means for its landfalling risk though down the line, but if its further south as a result then it could well not get quite as far north when the first upper trough digs down.

Interesting system this one, just needs a little more deep convection still...