ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[Ivanhater]

Yep, gets picked up

[SFLcane]

The only reason the ECM takes this on a more southerly route is because it keeps it fairly weak.

[TwisterFanatic]

The only reason the ECM takes this on a more southerly route is because it keeps it fairly weak.

Last night wasn't it showing a strong hurricane on the southern route?

[gatorcane]

At 180 that ridge is moving back to the west, notice the cyclone to its SE?

In this run, 91L/Colin goes fishing...and the systems behind it may go fishing as well perhaps in this run...

Now we just need to see the ECMWF show a Colin going fishing and I'd say we have some consensus! Though we had consensus between the GFS and ECMWF last night on a westrunner but looks like that consensus is gone now.

[KWT]

This run shows though how close it could be, if for example 91L is down near 20N at 120hrs, then the risk to the EC goes up in a big way, really quite a tight situation, the upper trough is large but its not really that deep digging past say 96-144hrs, if the deed isn't done it'll probably slow right down as we on this 18z run.

The fact the upper trough doesn't do it first time is very interesting, I remember the models doing the same thing with Frances in 2004...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Yep, gets picked up

On day eleven and after a close brush with the Carolinas. Hardly information to take to the bank.

[redfish1]

if i remember right didnt all the IKE models show him being a fish also??

[Dean4Storms]

That is one crazy run, I just don't see the Atlantic ridge breaking down that much to the east and this trough that strong in early August. I think the GFS is drinking Long Island Ice Tea's in the evenings!!

[SFLcane]

The only reason the ECM takes this on a more southerly route is because it keeps it fairly weak.

Last night wasn't it showing a strong hurricane on the southern route?

Yep thats correct BUT the synoptic set-up has changed in the models. You have to get all your marbles in the correct slot for an eastcoast hit to take shape.

[Ivanhater]

Well the trend for today is for a more amplified trough off the east coast, including the Euro...Interesting to see if the 00z models continue the trend or back off on the trough

[CalmBeforeStorm]

At day 6 on this GFS run Colin was meandering just east of the Bahamas with the EC trough passing it by. I think to draw any further conclusions from days 7-12 is just fantasy.

[KWT]

My guess is they may well hold that solution now Ivanhater, however clearly if this one doesn't pick up as much latitude between 96-120hrs then things really become intresting.

Those slack currents aloft once the first upper trough moves away certainly suggest things could get interesting if it doesn't quite get as much latitude as expected.

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like a close call, kind of like last season's Bill, but it's still all speculation at this point.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well the trend for today is for a more amplified trough off the east coast, including the Euro...Interesting to see if the 00z models continue the trend or back off on the trough

Don't think they will back off much on the 00z runs, might even be a little more progressive with a recurve scenario. Do think in a day or two the models will probably start coming into more typical early august summertime terms and show a weaker/ weakening trough that will not have near the effect they are currently showing.

[hurricaneCW]

The huge upper low pattern across the Western Atlantic does seem highly unusual for early August, and I have a feeling the trough will be weaker than models show right now. For some reason, I don't think it's going to go out to sea. Don't forget, any TUTT induced weakening would send it more on a westerly course.

[StormClouds63]

:uarrow:

Maybe but could be the fish train setting up if that trough lingers around the Central Atlantic....

Colin and Danielle might both go fishing looking at that last model run. In 2006, that east coast "trough" turned several systems into the open Atlantic grave yard.

Let's see if the models are consistent with this "fishing" scenario. 1969, 1995, and 2005 all had their fair share of these tracks.

[KWT]

Yeah it does seem pretty potent, though its really only the 120-168hrs that the upper trough is strong, after that as we see the troughs are only strong enough to stall the system out or drift it northwards...

So if its a good deal further west or south then the 18z suggests before 120hrs, then once again things get interesting.

ps, the 18z GFS really isn't that far off a classic La Nina track FWIW...

[AtlanticWind]

Too early to call for The US. I think it could be a close call for the Islands.

[Extremeweatherguy]

if i remember right didnt all the IKE models show him being a fish also??

Here are a few saved images I have from Hurricane Ike showing model plots from various points of the storm's life:

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... orm_09.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... m_09_3.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... m_09_5.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... m_09_6.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... m_09_7.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... m_09_9.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... _09_13.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... _09_18.gif
http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... _09_22.gif

At no time did it really look like IKE would be a "fish" (except for a few stray individual model runs), but it did look like the storm might try and turn northward well to the east of where it actually did (into FL instead of TX).

[KWT]

I do remember some models calling for Dean to be a fish though, I remember re-reading through it and quite a few people called for it to head into the NE Caribbean then either recurve or hit Florida...and that just kept on rolling westwards...

Not quite the same thing this year though, the 2007 High was an order above what we currently have, but I feel its going to be close enough to at least require serious watching.