ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[KWT]

Surface low forming around the Carolinas at 138 hours along a cold front....that would almost definitely deflect it away from the US.....trough digging. How the GFS has totally shifted its thinking from yesterday at this time.

This whole thing is getting fishier by the minute.

Yep, if that happens then guess what model saw it first...good ole CMC!

What I will say is steering currents do look pretty weak so it may take two bites of the cherry and if the system can stay far enough south to begin with and doesn't shot up quickly then you neve quite know...

Still I'm not totally convinced it gains nearly as much latitude early on but we will see, with such a large upper trough, it will gain signifcant latitude at some point.

[gatorcane]

The only thing I will say is that 91L is moving nearly due west still and models take it WNW already and pretty quickly. So there could be some leftward shifts in the models with time as long as 91L doesn't deepen too quickly over the next couple of days.

[Dean4Storms]

Strange run, the trough doesn't look to dig any deeper. All I can think is the timing.

[Ivanhater]

156..it's close!

[gatorcane]

Strange run, the trough doesn't look to dig any deeper. All I can think is the timing.

Looks like 91L is kindaof drifing east of the Bahamas now...trough lifting out. Something is also behind 91L too......

[Dean4Storms]

It's creeping, I think it misses it.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like it didn't catch it to fully recurve like Dean said, but that is very close

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Putting on the brakes, not what you would expect if it is getting caught by the trough.

At it's latitude the steering currents were actuallly pretty weak as the low that the trough eminated from was quite far north as you woud expect this time of year.

[Blown Away]

To get to the 138 hour position, 91L would have to average nearly 18 mph to be there on time? To fast IMO!

[Steve]

>>Remember some were showing a really strong trof dropping down the eastern U.S. and sending Alex north and even northeast. Of course look what really happened.

Valid point Mike. We won't know for a while. The WPAC telegraphed ridging (even somewhat contour) with Alex, Bonnie and the invest that hit SWLA (92 or 95L?).

Mixed signals out there right now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/avn-l.jpg

[Blown Away]

Strange run, the trough doesn't look to dig any deeper. All I can think is the timing.

Looks like 91L is kindaof drifing east of the Bahamas now...trough lifting out. Something is also behind 91L too......

Maybe a Jeanne or Betsy type situation?

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
still a central Florida storm according to this storm model gfl. A strong storm at that matter!!!!!!!!!!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

To get to the 138 hour position, 91L would have to average nearly 18 mph to be there on time? To fast IMO!

Not uncommon to see cyclones move quickly in late July/early August

[gatorcane]

Maybe but could be the fish train setting up if that trough lingers around the Central Atlantic....

[Dean4Storms]

It has been since 64 since north Florida has had a landfalling hurricane, it may just be its time!!

[Ivanhater]

180

[redfish1]

i am going to stick with the Euro the model that has done best this year so far

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Like was said, totally different from last night and this morning, now showing a strong trough digging down the east coast. What has me concerned is that since it is the first time the models are showing such a strong setup they are probably over doing it and will be wrong. how many times have we seen this kind of situation when the first initial runs of a developing storm come out showing west, then next day most show a strong frontal trough picking the system up, then only within the next couple of runs start weakening the trough not having as much influence on the system. As Gatorcane said there has not been a east coast trough around for weeks and now all of a sudden there is a really strong one digging down towards the se states in the first week or so of august. I just have a feeling the models are overdoing it and expect a shift back towards the west over the next few days. Who knows could be completely wrong but seen it happen to many times not to throw the chances out there.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

i am going to stick with the Euro the model that has done best this year so far

It's best to take a blend of all the models and not stick to any particular one.

[Dean4Storms]

At 180 that ridge is moving back to the west, notice the cyclone to its SE?