ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[KWT]

I really only personally see one area at the moment that is likely to get going and that would be close to where the deeper convection is presently...

Yeah I'd hold at 80%, just would like to see a slightly bigger coverage of deeper convection but its more or less there now.

[wxman57]

Well, I'm thinking it's safe to say that the question is not 'if' 91L will develop, but 'when'. Hopefully, NHC lets it fully separate from the ITCZ and gain a well-defined LLC before upgrading today. Hard to be confident in that given the recent TWO wording. I think it will be a TD by sunrise tomorrow for the first visible imagery, though.

I notice that the latest SHIPS output has some quite strong shear past 72 hrs, up to 36 kts at 108 hrs. Obviously seeing that upper low north of the eastern Caribbean. Question is - will it really have that much influence on a developing TC. Will it move out of the way? GFS seems to move it out as 91L approaches. But there's a chance it could impart enough shear to weaken 91L/Colin as it nears the islands.

Question is, where will it eventually make its final landfall. I'm thinking somewhere between Tampico, MX and Iceland, presently. Sort of centered along the SE U.S. Coast. Will it cross into the Gulf? Maybe. Models have been indicating a significant weakness in the ridge to the north after it passes around 65W. Will it actually be there? Maybe.

First thing to determine, assuming it develops, is the potential threat to the islands of the NE Caribbean. It's so far south, it's hard to believe that it'll miss the NE Caribbean as many models suggest. Regardless, watch out Bahamas then Florida to the Carolinas, as once it gets away from the upper low it could strengthen quickly. Won't even speculate on final intensity yet, it's still 1600+ miles east of the Caribbean.

Guess I'll be busy the next 10-14 days (and through Thanksgiving).

[Aquawind]

I'm currently in the BVIs (British Virgin Islands)...what kind of weather can I expect from this system? What chances does it have to recurve before hitting my area?...any comments are much appreciated!

Check this thread for more local information.. viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=5880 They are all over it at - Central America Weather=Watching invest 91L. The header will be changed but the facts will still role..

[cycloneye]

I'm currently in the BVIs (British Virgin Islands)...what kind of weather can I expect from this system? What chances does it have to recurve before hitting my area?...any comments are much appreciated!

Hello from San Juan,Puerto Rico. Is still early to say which track it will take eventually,but I think in the next 2-3 days a more clear picture will be seen. By the way, we have a thread for the folks who live in the Caribbean and Central America where you can visit and post any weather observations from your area. The thread is at USA & Caribbean Weather forum. Link to thread is below at my signature.

[Ivanhater]

Great post as always Wxman...Tampico to Maine sounds about right

Couldn't agree more about the Islands comment. We need to deal with that first.

Anyway, the original reason I came to post was this loop... Concentrated storms expanding over the center now..

[KWT]

I think that post Wxman57 shows the uncertainty behind everything, its a very fine line that 91L will be treading between not only a possible shear zone but then also how it interacts with the upper trough present more then likely in the NE part of N.America...I mean sooo many factors will make the difference between the system hitting say Florida and recurving at 70W.

Still its fun to speculate if nothing else, and I think we will doing plenty more in the next few days!

Ivanhater, I remember Alex when it first formed showing a similar presentation just before it was upgraded.

[cycloneye]

Well, I'm thinking it's safe to say that the question is not 'if' 91L will develop, but 'when'. Hopefully, NHC lets it fully separate from the ITCZ and gain a well-defined LLC before upgrading today. Hard to be confident in that given the recent TWO wording. I think it will be a TD by sunrise tomorrow for the first visible imagery, though.

I notice that the latest SHIPS output has some quite strong shear past 72 hrs, up to 36 kts at 108 hrs. Obviously seeing that upper low north of the eastern Caribbean. Question is - will it really have that much influence on a developing TC. Will it move out of the way? GFS seems to move it out as 91L approaches. But there's a chance it could impart enough shear to weaken 91L/Colin as it nears the islands.

Question is, where will it eventually make its final landfall. I'm thinking somewhere between Tampico, MX and Iceland, presently. Sort of centered along the SE U.S. Coast. Will it cross into the Gulf? Maybe. Models have been indicating a significant weakness in the ridge to the north after it passes around 65W. Will it actually be there? Maybe.

First thing to determine, assuming it develops, is the potential threat to the islands of the NE Caribbean. It's so far south, it's hard to believe that it'll miss the NE Caribbean as many models suggest. Regardless, watch out Bahamas then Florida to the Carolinas, as once it gets away from the upper low it could strengthen quickly. Won't even speculate on final intensity yet, it's still 1600+ miles east of the Caribbean.

Guess I'll be busy the next 10-14 days (and through Thanksgiving).

The best post of this sunday with a great perspective for all the areas.

[bvigal]

Well, I'm thinking it's safe to say that the question is not 'if' 91L will develop, but 'when'. Hopefully, NHC lets it fully separate from the ITCZ and gain a well-defined LLC before upgrading today. Hard to be confident in that given the recent TWO wording. I think it will be a TD by sunrise tomorrow for the first visible imagery, though.

I notice that the latest SHIPS output has some quite strong shear past 72 hrs, up to 36 kts at 108 hrs. Obviously seeing that upper low north of the eastern Caribbean. Question is - will it really have that much influence on a developing TC. Will it move out of the way? GFS seems to move it out as 91L approaches. But there's a chance it could impart enough shear to weaken 91L/Colin as it nears the islands.

Question is, where will it eventually make its final landfall. I'm thinking somewhere between Tampico, MX and Iceland, presently. Sort of centered along the SE U.S. Coast. Will it cross into the Gulf? Maybe. Models have been indicating a significant weakness in the ridge to the north after it passes around 65W. Will it actually be there? Maybe.

First thing to determine, assuming it develops, is the potential threat to the islands of the NE Caribbean. It's so far south, it's hard to believe that it'll miss the NE Caribbean as many models suggest. Regardless, watch out Bahamas then Florida to the Carolinas, as once it gets away from the upper low it could strengthen quickly. Won't even speculate on final intensity yet, it's still 1600+ miles east of the Caribbean.

Guess I'll be busy the next 10-14 days (and through Thanksgiving).

Thanks for this, wxman! Yes the million dollar question, the upper low north of the EC. Day after day we got rained on, blamed on same thing, and day after day, for almost 15 days, we read the ULL was moving out, but it didn't budge. If a weather feature could ever be imagined to take on human character traits, one could easily label this, 'capricious'.

I know you are keeping a close lookout for whether we have a potential threat here in NE-C, and feels good to know!! I'm not at all convinced by models this early, have seen a lot of storms come by here, and largely were not where models this early predicted.

[ROCK]

Perhaps its just me, but I see two areas that could become a more dominate feature in time. Which one will it be?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I am looking about 10N....the other one maybe around 12N or so but more east....

[bvigal]

I'm currently in the BVIs (British Virgin Islands)...

Me too! Sent you a PM.

[jlauderdal]

How is this not a depression already?

simple, the National hurricane Center hasn't analyzed a LLC

[Clint_TX]

I remember when this forum would have been a steady stream of "FISH!" posts...we are all grown up

[hurricaneCW]

I'm hoping this system turns into a Category 5 that recurves around 70W. I don't want anyone to be impacted by this system, but I'm hoping it becomes a very powerful, massive, major hurricane. New loops show thunderstorms beginning to explode over the apparent center. That is right on time with the D-max approaching.

[bvigal]

Here's the water vapor from 12-hr interval.

[Dean4Storms]

Lets hope the ULL does shear it otherwise the NE Carib Islands could take a nasty hit.

[shaggy]

Seems 91L is going to make a run at TD by morning. I've been working nights all weekend and this invest seems to really explode overnight and go through some organization. I doubt tonight will be any different and it will be the turning point of this system.

As far as landfall(if ever) goes its anyones guess. Over the years we should have all learned that any tropical forecast beyond 3-4 days is futile at best.

[taccido]

This could end up being one of the storms that initiates a massive evac from southern Florida where people get stuck in traffic for hours and hours and run out of gas. It is an event that could even be repeated more than once this year. Glad I don't live there.

[AdamFirst]

This could end up being one of the storms that initiates a massive evac from southern Florida where people get stuck in traffic for hours and hours and run out of gas. It is an event that could even be repeated more than once this year. Glad I don't live there.

Let's hope not

Hurricane Floyd was bad enough and it didn't even hit us.

[bvigal]

I'm hoping this system turns into a Category 5 that recurves around 70W. I don't want anyone to be impacted by this system, but I'm hoping it becomes a very powerful, massive, major hurricane. New loops show thunderstorms beginning to explode over the apparent center. That is right on time with the D-max approaching.

If you don't want anyone impacted, 70W is not soon enough for a recurve!

Code: Select all

San Juan PR    18.43N  66.02W
St Thomas      18.33N  64.98W
St. Croix      17.70N  64.80W
Beef Is BVI    18.45N  64.53W
St Maarten     18.05N  63.12W
St Kitts       17.30N  62.68W
Antigua        17.12N  61.78W
Montserrat     16.79N  62.19W
Guadeloupe     16.27N  61.53W
Dominica       15.52N  61.28W
Martinique     14.60N  61.00W
St. Lucia      13.75N  60.95W
St. Vincent    13.13N  61.20W
Barbados       13.07N  59.48W
Grenada        12.00N  61.78W
Trinidad       11.15N  60.85W


[fci]

This could end up being one of the storms that initiates a massive evac from southern Florida where people get stuck in traffic for hours and hours and run out of gas. It is an event that could even be repeated more than once this year. Glad I don't live there.

Well I live "there" and the prospects that you present are so far-fetched for a system that is thousands of miles away.
I think I lwill et the next 7-10 days go by before I start thinking too much about the traffic and running out of gas in anticipation of what is currently 91L.