ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[Ivanhater]

So are none of the models bombing this as a strong hurricane like they were late last night?

12z GFS was very strong...12z Euro has always come in weaker than the 00z version.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks Ivan,
It will be interesting if the other models start making this a stronger system down the road.

[SFLcane]

Something tells me this could end being another sheared mess (bonnie) as it approaches the SE. Tutt influence all over the place.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

228 Hours, South of the Central LA. Coast.

[ronjon]

Other than the 12Z intensity, the Euro's track is similar to the 00Z run. Thus, the ECM maintains the strong 500 mb ridging over the SE US and western Atlantic. I'm not concerned on the intensity - global models have a hard time with that anyway. It's the synoptics that you have to pay attention too and right now, I don't see any reason why this system wouldn't follow a Bonnie or Frances type track with a much more intense system.

[redfish1]

228 Hours, South of the Central LA. Coast.

still heading west???

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, the high shear that some of the models are predicting is 100% speculation at this point. Speculation, that it's......

[MortisFL]

228 Hours, South of the Central LA. Coast.

still heading west???

Yes, just like Bonnie.

[StormClouds63]

228 Hours, South of the Central LA. Coast.

still heading west???

Florida versus Texas posters ... let the fireworks begin.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

228 Hours, South of the Central LA. Coast.

still heading west???

240 hours South of the SW LA. Coast. Headed for Texas. Long way out a long way to go.

[redfish1]

228 Hours, South of the Central LA. Coast.

still heading west???

Florida versus Texas posters ... let the fireworks begin.

lol...its going to be fun

[Ivanhater]

If it were weak, this would be ok...If the 00z is stronger like I think it will be..it will be even further north (Possibly not even getting to the Gulf)

[ronjon]

228 Hours, South of the Central LA. Coast.

still heading west???

Florida versus Texas posters ... let the fireworks begin.

There's a strong possibility this storm could impact both states.

[Weatherfreak000]

If it were weak, this would be ok...If the 00z is stronger like I think it will be..it will be even further north (Possibly not even getting to the Gulf)

Deja Vu right

[MortisFL]

I have to get my portable coffee maker ready. Satellite presentation looking better for this invest.

[Ivanhater]

Each consecutive run has been inching further and further north on the Euro, from the southern most point of the deep Caribbean heading west...

[ronjon]

Each consecutive run has been inching further and further north on the Euro, from the southern most point of the deep Caribbean heading west...

Michael, have to see if the ridging maintains itself - its weaker on the 12Z Euro run than the 00Z, but it seems to be expanding by days 8-10. I just don't see the troughing necessary to recurve off the coast at this point. And the southern heat ridge has been fairly persistent this summer.

[StormClouds63]

I agree with Ivan as well ... a stronger system may not even enter the GOM. I think the Florida/East Coast prediction is still the more likely scenario.

[MortisFL]

[quote="StormClouds63"]I agree with Ivan as well ... a stronger system may not even enter the GOM. I think the Florida/East Coast prediction is still the more likely scenario.[/quot

Thats even if it makes it to the East coast of U.S. Models showing more northern component.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_91.gif

[Ivanhater]

Very true Ron...

As for "Where in the GOM will it hit" talk....I still think it is way to far out to even speculate.

I will say tonight's run will be interesting to see if the trend continues or starts to balance out...Islands are up first though