ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#121 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:22 am

Looks like a recurve on this run...Could be wrong though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#122 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:23 am

In other words, the timing will be the key for it to grow stronger or weaken in that area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#123 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:24 am

150..does look pretty far north

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#124 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:24 am

I think it's getting picked up

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#125 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:25 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#126 Postby lonelymike » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:26 am

Man that ridge is really blown out in this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#127 Postby Riptide » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:27 am

Ivanhater wrote:I think it's getting picked up

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150m.gif

This trough wavelength is also pulling out, Crazy timing scenario here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#128 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:29 am

174..what's it thinking? Recurve or go back west?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#129 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:29 am

ridging appears to be all but gone on this particular run from the GFS.

Edit: could threaten the carolinas...
Last edited by SFLcane on Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#130 Postby artist » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:29 am

ok, with the dry bias that the new gfs has, would that change anything with what we are seeing with this run?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#131 Postby Riptide » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:30 am

Ivanhater wrote:174..what's it thinking? Recurve or go back west?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_174m.gif


It appears to have stalled out under a slack steering pattern...
The trough pulled away to quickly.

It might just sit around out there for awhile waiting for another trough or be steered westward into the East Coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#132 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:31 am

192hrs...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#133 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:34 am

228..Yep, getting shoved back west

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#134 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:34 am

Landfall in northern florida...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#135 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:35 am

At what intensity it makes landfall?
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#136 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:35 am

Stay tuned for the next GFS...it'll not develop it for 72 hours send it into the Caribbean toward the Yucatan :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#137 Postby Riptide » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:36 am

Now you know why Hurricane Landfalls in Northern Florida/Southern Georgia are rare. :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#138 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:38 am

Well that was an interesting run and would give forecasters a nightmare if it came to pass...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#139 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:39 am

deep trough during summertime?? Doupt that verifies.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#140 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:40 am

That would be a strange track and a nightmare to forecast.
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