ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#101 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:56 am

12z GFS Rolling...

42 hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#102 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:00 am

Given that 91L is approx. 4000 miles away from the Texas coast, it is 11-16 days away (if it moves at 15 mph, it would take 11 days to get to Texas. If it moves at 10mph, it would take more than 16 days to get there!!!)




~FlipFlopGirl~ wrote:Based on what the models are showing- is it safe to rule out a hit for someone who is going to the TX Gulf coast next week? Or too early to tell- :sun:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#103 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:02 am

Ivan, is there a TUTT somewhere in the 200mb graphics? I ask as the talk today here is about weakening near the islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#104 Postby Portastorm » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:03 am

FlipFlopGirl -- your biggest "threat" this next week along the Texas Gulf Coast will be sunburn. Wear a hat and lather up the sunblock.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#105 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:04 am

84hrs 12z GFS

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#106 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:06 am

cycloneye wrote:Ivan, is there a TUTT somewhere in the 200mb graphics? I ask as the talk today here is about weakening near the islands.


So far there is a narrow band north of the Islands, we will have to see how it progresses when the storm moves that way. As of 42 hours where the storm is, conditions are great

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#107 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:07 am

54hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#108 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:07 am

SFLCANE, that is last night's run...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#109 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:08 am

Ivanhater wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Ivan, is there a TUTT somewhere in the 200mb graphics? I ask as the talk today here is about weakening near the islands.


So far there is a narrow band north of the Islands, we will have to see how it progresses when the storm moves that way. As of 42 hours where the storm is, conditions are great

Image


It looks not to be a strong one at this point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#110 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:10 am

Ivanhater wrote:SFLCANE, that is last night's run...


No its not...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#111 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:12 am

SFLcane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:SFLCANE, that is last night's run...


No its not...


I see 00z on the timestamp. I might be misreading it though
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#112 Postby Lane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:13 am

How does a storm get to be called 91L or 92L? I ask because didn't we just go through 92L and 93L? Now on 91L, So I guess what I am asking how or what determines that #?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#113 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:13 am

I also see 000084.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#114 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:13 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#115 Postby Ikester » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:14 am

102 hrs:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#116 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:16 am

Vort looks good..Passing just north of the Islands

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#117 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:16 am

126hrs...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#118 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:17 am

Ivanhater wrote:Vort looks good..Passing just north of the Islands

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Right there supposdly the narrow tutt is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#119 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:21 am

cycloneye wrote:
Right there supposdly the narrow tutt is.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#120 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:21 am

Close, but the TUTT lifts north by then..but still close

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