ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

[Recurve]

Thanks for the concise description Michael, I haven't been able to look at model runs.

If I ignore the GFS as far as development/track of this disturbance, is it at all good for forecasting evolution of Atlantic highs, just to be aware of what might be sitting in the way if this does develop and gain enough latitude?

Keep talking about what the models are showing regarding a TUTT dropping down or any breaks in the high.

I don't know enough to know if the modeled highs are fishy or blocking highs. I see GFS has the high retreat some from the east coast after a time, but, and this may be a very dumb question, which isobar matters when a storm is rounding a high? Can a hurricane get close to the 1024 mb bar or is it that pretty far from the edge that would steer the storm?

[Vortex]

00Z GFS beginning to roll in....Wher will he end up this go aroud? I'll go with over or just North of the NE carribean/PR and into the bahamas...Thereafter, I'll let you know in 45-1hr

[Ivanhater]

00Z run really backs off

150 hours approaching Islands

[South Texas Storms]

is that a tc approaching cancun in 150 hr on gfs?

[Ivanhater]

168 hour...2 vort maxes

[Ivanhater]

180 hours

[cheezyWXguy]

180 hours

this run seems like trash...I highly doubt theres going to be 2 vort maxes, or a cluster of them for that matter like at 150 hr, and all chasing each other like that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS seems to keep the energy separate and never really bundles it like in earlier runs. You can see this very clearly when you compare the vorticity of the 18z run and the 00z run.

00z vs. 18z:

00z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_168l.gif

18z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_174l.gif

The 00z does still show a broad area of higher vorticity though, and if the model can focus all that energy into a smaller area in future runs, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the stronger tropical cyclone scenario re-appear.

[Riptide]

I'm glad that the GFDL is available for intensity AND track guidance. I won't need to look at this trash model.

The GFDL may be to far north nonetheless but I'm willing to bet the ultimate solution is closer to the GFDL than what the 0z GFS is showing us tonight. It's almost as if it is an open wave. It initializes with a nice area of low pressure and loses it for reasons unknown.

[ROCK]

IMO, 90L is still dealing with 2 features and will need time to sort its self out. Still embedded in the ITCZ and the models are intensifying it to fast IMO...thus the gain in lat....I would have to go with WXMN57 on the NE islands scenario..stays weaker longer thus more WNW...if I was an island guy I would be watching closely and staying up for the ECM every night....

that means you Luis....

[ROCK]

I'm glad that the GFDL is available for intensity AND track guidance. I won't need to look at this trash model.

The GFDL may be to far north nonetheless but I'm willing to bet the ultimate solution is closer to the GFDL than what the 0z GFS is showing us tonight. It's almost as if it is an open wave. It initializes with a nice area of low pressure and loses it for reasons unknown.

the GFDL is notorious for its intensity bias...I am not even sure I would trust it since it does use part of the GFS in intializing.....as far as the NEW improved GFS, I say bring back ole reliable and start over on the new one....how you can implement a flawed model is beyond me....If I did this in my real job I would be toast....

[xcool22]

ROCK best best posting of day .thanks

[Ivanhater]

Canadian really far north

[ROCK]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Canadian really far north

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 4.jpgquote]


going fishing on that run....

[xcool22]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Ivanhater]

HWRF..XCOOL, the long range has not updated yet

[xcool22]

oh opps sorry

[Riptide]

That is some really exotic intensity and track guidance from the HWRF. Does it really lift the system northward as it rapidly intensifies within the next 24 hours?

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps, not all that impressed

[xcool22]

Ivanhater .cmc 00z 240hr take to far north