ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[supercane]

lates recon is showing some 40 knot winds

That is enough for Bonnie to be a Tropical Storm once again!

Except that the reduction from flight-level winds at 925 mb is 75%. (Source: Jeff Masters from 2010 Hurricane Conference, http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormW ... trynum=643). So 0.75 * 43 kt = 32.75 kt. Close to TS force (>= 34 kt), but as NHC says in their 11PM discussion, given the fact that these winds are well north of the center and the difficultly finding west winds, not an easy upgrade call.

Note also from the discussion:
AN
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN TROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY DUE TO A
LACK OF CONVECTION.

[jcoffee]

The forecast from the official National Hurricane Center website is calling for a slightly stronger storm before landfall. Bonnie only weakened because it had to get over Florida and will probably now become a Tropical Storm. That is what the official site is predicting.

[mvtrucking]

Time to say goodnight Irene(I mean Bonnie) Next please...

[HURAKAN]

We desperately need Colin!!!

[HURAKAN]

Last night at this time:

[wxman57]

The forecast from the official National Hurricane Center website is calling for a slightly stronger storm before landfall. Bonnie only weakened because it had to get over Florida and will probably now become a Tropical Storm. That is what the official site is predicting.

That's a "just in case" forecast of strengthening. They know it's more likely to dissipate, but there are TS warnings out.

[supercane]

We desperately need Colin!!!

Who does? You can keep him!

Seriously though, expecting Dr. Bones to make an appearance sooner rather than later.

[HURAKAN]

We desperately need Colin!!!

Who does? You can keep him!

Seriously though, expecting Dr. Bones to make an appearance sooner rather than later.

Just to track, just to track!!

[redfish1]

is there any models coming out soon??

[HURAKAN]

Seems like the swirl is moving west

[ConvergenceZone]

At Bonnie

Wow, I'm looking a the Satellite and saying, "okay, where's Bonnie"? It seems to be looking worse by the hour. At least last night it was fully clothed, now it's down to it's underwear...Getting very close to being a naked wave.....

[redfish1]

Seems like the swirl is moving west

that is exactly what i have been trying to say!!!...finally some one is agreeing with me

[redfish1]

if she is moving west wouldnt that give her more time to develop...any thoughts??

[HURAKAN]

if she is moving west wouldnt that give her more time to develop...any thoughts??

It's moving "west" because it's very weak. I think Bonnie best hours are behind her.

[redfish1]

if she is moving west wouldnt that give her more time to develop...any thoughts??

It's moving "west" because it's very weak. I think Bonnie best hours are behind her.

do you think she can still reach TS status before landfall?

[HURAKAN]

if she is moving west wouldnt that give her more time to develop...any thoughts??

It's moving "west" because it's very weak. I think Bonnie best hours are behind her.

do you think she can still reach TS status before landfall?

I think it could become a remnant low before landfall

[MWatkins]

I think that last attempt at deep convection is probably the end of Bonnie. There's just too much working against it.

Once again demonstrating that there's more to it than warm SSTs

MW

[ConvergenceZone]

I know it's fun to watch development, but this collapse of Bonnie has come at a fantastic time, being that they are still working on the oil situation in the gulf. Hopefully the next real threat won't come until late August or September...

[mvtrucking]

I think that last attempt at deep convection is probably the end of Bonnie. There's just too much working against it.

Once again demonstrating that there's more to it than warm SSTs

MW

Absolutely, I think she will basically be gone by morning

[HURAKAN]

And there she goes, so graceful!!! lol