ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

Vortmax1 · #2981 Postby **Vortmax1** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:18 pm

Well, that's the latest fix so it seems they relocated.

#2982 Postby **supercane** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:25 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:Well, that's the latest fix so it seems they relocated.

Right now given Bonnie's weak state it is very possible that the new fix represents actual westward movement with the low level steering flow.

#2983 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:27 pm

Sometimes you see this and you ask yourself, do we need those tropical storm warnings? lol

redfish1 · #2984 Postby **redfish1** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:29 pm

just my opinion but i think the models will shift west.. what do you all think???

Vortmax1 · #2985 Postby **Vortmax1** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:29 pm

Right now given Bonnie's weak state it is very possible that the new fix represents actual westward movement with the low level steering flow.

Of course.
Not much to worry about anyway.
Have a nice evening all.

jcoffee · #2986 Postby **jcoffee** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:34 pm

This could come back and shift west? Bonnie's radar show more energy: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg

#2987 Postby **HurricaneBelle** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:36 pm

A tiny bit of life left in Bonnie:

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

GMZ830-853-240615-
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THIS STATEMENT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:

COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM.
TAMPA BAY WATERS.

...AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM EDT.

AT 1018 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF TAMPA
BAY AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

WINDS AT EGMONT KEY AND ANNA MARIA ISLAND HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS
EVENING AT AROUND 24 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER END OF THE BAY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS WILL OCCUR...PRODUCING BRIEFLY ROUGH
CONDITIONS. IF AT SEA...GO BELOW DECK UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

Countrygirl911 · #2988 Postby **Countrygirl911** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:37 pm

lates recon is showing some 40 knot winds

#2989 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:38 pm

Remains as TD.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 83.4W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

redfish1 · #2990 Postby **redfish1** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:Remains as TD.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 83.4W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

moving more westerly??

jcoffee · #2991 Postby **jcoffee** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:40 pm

Countrygirl911 wrote:lates recon is showing some 40 knot winds

That is enough for Bonnie to be a Tropical Storm once again!

lebron23 · #2992 Postby **lebron23** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:43 pm

redfish1 wrote:just my opinion but i think the models will shift west.. what do you all think???

The furthest west i can see this going is Morgan city. This is a LA,MS system.

#2993 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:47 pm

lebron23 · #2994 Postby **lebron23** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:49 pm

Ive seen sea breeze thunderstorms that looks better than that...... :spam:

#2995 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:53 pm

redfish1 wrote:just my opinion but i think the models will shift west.. what do you all think???

It may not matter. By morning there may be just a naked weak swirl without any convection left.

#2996 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:55 pm

Latest

jcoffee · #2997 Postby **jcoffee** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:58 pm

Bonnie intensity forecast says Bonnie is to become a Tropical Storm once again in 24 hours time -> see chart below that I have cut and pasted from the National Hurricane Center's website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.4N 83.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 27.7N 85.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 29.2N 88.5W 35 KT

hurricaneCW · #2998 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 10:01 pm

Bonnie is in the worst environment for a Tropical Cyclone to be in. Attached to a massive ULL with another to its east is driving 30-40 knots of wind shear right through the storm. There is barely anything left and I think she will open up and dissipate within the next 12 hours or so.

#2999 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 10:02 pm

Yeah, but didn't Beven also say it was increasingly likely it would decay into an or open trough or remnant low?

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #3000 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Fri Jul 23, 2010 10:04 pm

Windy here: East wind 24 mph gusts to 30-35+ mph along Tampa Bay.

ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

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