ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Sanibel]

The ULL sheared the top right off it once it hit land. The dry center should move over us in about an hour. If this was a September category 5 that followed this track the center would have exited right over us. We got enough rain to say we didn't go without but still hardly anything.

[Sanibel]

Center very much intact on visible Floater:



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html


.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, I wonder if it will be a wave the next time they give us an update...

[mpic]

Does this mean they will be able to resume operations at the oil rig sooner than expected?

[tolakram]

Look at the WV loop though

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html




Not much left to work with.

[Vortmax1]

Yeah tolakram, it kinda tells the story doesn't it?

[wxman57]

Does this mean they will be able to resume operations at the oil rig sooner than expected?

No, they won't return until after Bonnie has passed and there is not even a slight risk to them.

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic!

[tailgater]

I was ready to write this one off as "no worries" but I just looked at the WV loop of the Gulf and see the ULL taking off to the NW. I'm not sure if that was predicated or not, I guess as long as it keeps up this speed it will still be no problem to most of us.
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

[fci]

i think we are fairly lucky that the ULL is disrupting this storm. It looks fairly organized for a weak TD or TS.

And to the post above, I think JB did predict that. He said their was another wave in the Gulf 168 out.

Somebody posted the "Free" video by JB a couple of days ago and he was talking about the 2nd wave and I think he said it would be a GOM issue but coming from the Carib. Not sure but I think that is what he said.
I apologize for going off topic of Bonnie!

[imetrice]

Local met here is giving an excellent explanation and illustration of the ULL, dry air, and shear, and why Bonnie is not expected to intensify much even though she is over very warm waters. Also he is advising us that Bonnie could pass just to the east of us...nevertheless, the city here is preparing for squally weather, and possible flooding. (Sandbags, etc.) Just curious if the current cone is pretty certain, or do they expect to have to move the forcast track to the west or further east before she makes landfall again?

[Sanibel]

Back into the Gulf now just to our south. You would hardly know there's a Tropical Storm nearby. 1/5th of an inch.

[Steve]

>>free video by jb

That was me. He said a piece would be left behind, and the next wave could help spin something up with that. The place to look would be the Central Gulf of Mexico mid-week. I dont know if that will happen or not. HWRF 12Z shows some of that moisture hitting extreme WFL in the form of a tropical surge of moisture. And btw, looking at that loop from Hawaii, it really looks like whatever main energy comes in from TD Bonnie will be pretty far east of me as it gets absorbed into the upper low. Had the upper low continued to swing west or southwest, I think we might have seen some showers here - and we still might. But anything worth noting is probably coming in between Harrison County, MS and Bay County, FL. <--- Disclaimer: Those snippets are from this poster and this poster only and are not official information regarding anything.

[Sanibel]

Cool clouds here to the north and south as the center passes. You can definitely see the TS core passing right south of the island and overhead. Tropical type linear clouds. It just passed out into the Gulf.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RL3AO]

Is that new convection off Sanibel Island?

[shell70]

Yup, guess she won't get to be a Cat 2 like you predicted. Good forecasting forecaster.

First things first. Tropical Systems are a science and can be unpredictable and even forecasters can make mistakes. Weather is not an exact science. And second I think we should show appreciation to the forecasters that post here and give us their point of view. It makes it much more interesting and a little more easier to understand.

[StormClouds63]

Cloud tops continue to warm ... However, I think NHC may just play it safe and keep it as a named TD until landfall, although it's looking more just like an open wave or trough at the moment.

[RL3AO]

There is one new thunderstorm.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Cloud tops continue to warm ... However, I think NHC may just play it safe and keep it as a named TD until landfall, although it's looking more just like an open wave or trough at the moment.

If it doesn't meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone, I don't think they will continue to classify it as such.