ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[x-y-no]

Yup, guess she won't get to be a Cat 2 like you predicted. Good forecasting forecaster.

I don't think anyone predicted a Cat 2...

Oh, whoops Sorry waxman57.

Nope, Wxman did predict a Cat. 2 to the Florida Panhandle at first

Discussing forecast verifications is fine. But do so accurately. Here is what wxman57 actually said at 6:39pm Tuesday:

I do think that there is a significant hurricane risk to SE FL, including Miami and Palm Beach. Probably not so much north of Vero Beach. It could pass anywhere from the FL Straits near northern Cuba to north of Palm Beach. You folks there better have your hurricane supplies. And then there's the track west of Florida.

I don't have much confidence on how strong the ridge to the north will be by Friday/Saturday. My gut is saying Pensacola as the most likely point of landfall (or maybe I'm just hungry). Realistically, it could strike as far west as Louisiana, though. I'd say the prime area of final landfall would be from New Orleans east to Apalachicola. Odds are good it'll be a hurricane at final landfall. Probably a Cat 1-2 and not a very big one. But all hurricanes are very dangerous.

Your mileage may vary, but I don't read that as a clear-cut forecast of a Cat 2.

And funster, you've already been warned about your tone. Cease and desist now.

[johngaltfla]

Bonnie is not dead yet. She may be later today or tomorrow but right now she is far from it. Look at loop below and you can see her circulation and convection starting flare up and as she begins to enter the GOM. As I'vd said before it should be at least interesting to see what becomes of her in the GOM.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

That animation shows convection being ripped from what's left of the LLC. Let's hope it dies overnight.

Having been down in the Bonita Springs area today, let me just say it was a less than impressive event. More like an afternoon thunderstorm than anything else. I think you're right, this storm just becomes a blob again by tonight.

[Tireman4]

By the way, Wxman57 TOTALLY nailed Ike. Because of him, the KHOU Weatherboard participants were prepared and ready to go. I, for one, thank him.

[poof121]

I think she's out on the gulf. Can't seem to get the URL to come out right, so click the link below, type in the X and Y coordinates at the bottom. Do at least a 10 frame animation, and speed it up. You should see the circ just off shore.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

(X=312 Y=287)

[ROCK]

By the way, Wxman57 TOTALLY nailed Ike. Because of him, the KHOU Weatherboard participants were prepared and ready to go. I, for one, thank him.

Yep I was there Tire.....was quite the ride....


Hey Steve, you want to give me some static about me being a ECM lover? I will take it....
still doesnt chnage my feelings though. I love it even more...(insert love song of choice)


...dynamics and globals have had a hard time with this mega-ULL..it can be debated none of them were right....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The squall moved through...a lot of dark clouds and some gusts of wind to 20 mph,
heavy rain, but nothing near Tropical Storm Force. The breezes are
picking up so we'll see but based on how small the core of bonnie
is I don't expect anything over 25 mph.

[jasons2k]

If Bonnie goes poof then it should not be a surprise to anyone on this board. Several models showed this as a real possibility and it wasn't like the massive ULL was going to just going away. The signs were all there. I would still keep eye on her as she enters the GOM. Anyway it's not like there's anything else to track out there right now.

Yes, not surprised at all it's getting ripped to shreds. I am surprised it's happening closer to Naples than Key West though. I'll take my crow char-broiled for thinking this had no chance of landfalling on the peninsula.

[dhweather]

I cannot believe what people are saying about wxman57. You've either not read or misread what he stated. He's forgotten more about the weather than 80% of the posters here know, me included. We are fortunate to have him here, be thankful! disagreeing is one thing, disrespecting is another and does not belong here in any capacity.

[Tireman4]

By the way, Wxman57 TOTALLY nailed Ike. Because of him, the KHOU Weatherboard participants were prepared and ready to go. I, for one, thank him.

Yep I was there Tire.....was quite the ride....


Hey Steve, you want to give me some static about me being a ECM lover? I will take it....
still doesnt chnage my feelings though. I love it even more...(insert love song of choice)


...dynamics and globals have had a hard time with this mega-ULL..it can be debated none of them were right....

Remember when we did not have models Rock. Goodness, the meteorologists (Wxman57 has spoken of these days on the weatherboard) had to like use...their hunches and calculus...LOL

[lester]

I think she's out on the gulf. Can't seem to get the URL to come out right, so click the link below, type in the X and Y coordinates at the bottom. Do at least a 10 frame animation, and speed it up. You should see the circ just off shore.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

(X=312 Y=287)

I think the llc is still overland moving north of naples. Should be over water soon however

[StormClouds63]

The mets add a lot to these discussions and are a very valuable resource for hurricane "novices" such as myself. Their contributions are much appreciated.

[poof121]

ULL starting to move NW...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Stormcenter]

The center is about enter the GOM. It's still looks decent.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[HURAKAN]

Bonnie's crossing

[Sambucol]

By the way, Wxman57 TOTALLY nailed Ike. Because of him, the KHOU Weatherboard participants were prepared and ready to go. I, for one, thank him.

I was there, too, and Tireman's statement is true.

[jasons2k]

After looking at the water vapor, I don't think this has a chance to do anything. Not only is the ULL just destroying what's left, but it's surrounded on both sides by dry air.

I'd say prospects look about as bright as a late December day in Fairbanks for redevelopment....

[NOLA2010]

Discussing forecast verifications is fine. But do so accurately. Here is what wxman57 actually said at 6:39pm Tuesday:

I do think that there is a significant hurricane risk to SE FL, including Miami and Palm Beach. Probably not so much north of Vero Beach. It could pass anywhere from the FL Straits near northern Cuba to north of Palm Beach. You folks there better have your hurricane supplies. And then there's the track west of Florida.

I don't have much confidence on how strong the ridge to the north will be by Friday/Saturday. My gut is saying Pensacola as the most likely point of landfall (or maybe I'm just hungry). Realistically, it could strike as far west as Louisiana, though. I'd say the prime area of final landfall would be from New Orleans east to Apalachicola. Odds are good it'll be a hurricane at final landfall. Probably a Cat 1-2 and not a very big one. But all hurricanes are very dangerous.

Your mileage may vary, but I don't read that as a clear-cut forecast of a Cat 2.

And funster, you've already been warned about your tone. Cease and desist now.[/quote]

He said it will probably be a Cat.1 or Cat. 2. I am pretty sure that means he predicted a Cat. 1 or Cat.2 at the panhandle. Which is exactly what I said

[SouthFloridawx]

http://i31.tinypic.com/mjznq.gif
Bonnie's crossing

You mean Bonnie's fading out...

[lebron23]

Should be TD Bonnie in a hour.

[HURAKAN]

http://i31.tinypic.com/mjznq.gif
Bonnie's crossing

You mean Bonnie's fading out...

We can call it that too!!!