ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[NOLA2010]

[/quote]

Yup, guess she won't get to be a Cat 2 like you predicted. Good forecasting forecaster.[/quote]


I don't think anyone predicted a Cat 2...[/quote]

Oh, whoops Sorry waxman57.[/quote]

Nope, Wxman did predict a Cat. 2 to the Florida Panhandle at first

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well for what it's worth, last Tuesday, when the shear had let up and it looked like Bonnie had a chance to get much stronger Most people myself included were
concerned that it would be Category 1 prior to FL and possibly higher in the
Gulf...but thankfully the ULL was there to shear Bonnie otherwise today would
be a very different story over South Florida.

[jasons2k]

Yup, guess she won't get to be a Cat 2 like you predicted. Good forecasting forecaster.

I don't think anyone predicted a Cat 2...

Oh, whoops Sorry waxman57.

Even if he had, that would have been totally uncalled for!!

[wxman57]

Bonnie is not dead yet. She may be later today or tomorrow but right now she is far from it. Look at loop below and you can see her circulation and convection starting flare up and as she begins to enter the GOM. As I'vd said before it should be at least interesting to see what becomes of her in the GOM.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

That animation shows convection being ripped from what's left of the LLC. Let's hope it dies overnight.

[Wx_Warrior]

People questioning pro mets? LOL...plz

The ones who said this would be a major, hit here & go there are not around today. Go figure

They will go against everything the pro mets say and convince themselves they are right. It's every system, every time.

[StormClouds63]

Dr. McCoy won't make his pronouncement just yet ... but he's back in the "green room" getting ready for his appearance later tonight or tomorrow. Meantime, Bonnie continues to struggle and appears to be nothing more than a squally rain band thanks to that mega-ULL. At least she's not prolonging the agony, as she's moving at a fast speed. I have a feeling there will be another Bonnie in 2016.

[Tireman4]

People questioning pro mets? LOL...plz

The ones who said this would be a major, hit here & go there are not around today. Go figure

They will go against everything the pro mets say and convince themselves they are right. It's every system, every time.

I agree. The pro mets put in the time. They know what they are doing. I trust them. Even if they do get things wrong. LOL. I do not have anything close to the knowledge they have in weather.

[Steve]

>>Yup, guess she won't get to be a Cat 2 like you predicted. Good forecasting forecaster.

He said, at most, that's as high as it could get all things depending but it could also dissipate. If anything, the Euro Cheerleaders need to hear some static, but wait until we're in a complete lull. There's still a shot for a random tornado, street flooding and cold beer up here on the northern Gulf. Regardless of whether it is a shower, a gust or not much of anything, we're still going to be in tropical storm party mode tomorrow. I will anyway.

[HURAKAN]

Unfortunately we can't retire storm names when the cyclone is lame!!!

I have a list when that becomes a possibility!!!!

[CrazyC83]

Shear ahead of it is only increasing. I'm thinking this is the end of the road, but the ULL itself could steal the moisture.

[lester]

Looking like Bonnie might get ripped apart this evening. Not sure it can survive the eastern side of that upper low. Notice that all the heavy convection has shifted to the northwest side of what's left of the LLC. Strong SE winds aloft will do that.

Yup, guess she won't get to be a Cat 2 like you predicted. Good forecasting forecaster.

Pro mets make mistakes sometimes too. They're only human

[poof121]

It looks like NHC will downgrade to TD at 5 PM.

18z Best Track

AL, 03, 2010072318, , BEST, 0, 258N, 811W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

According to those coordinates, she's nearly in the Gulf.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Now I am getting gusty winds as the squall moves over Tampa Bay...low clouds
resemble but are not quite a shelf cloud...sky looks ominous yet Awesome
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tbw

[HURAKAN]

Almost painful to watch!

[rockyman]

If Bonnie moves due west, it would be back over water in the couple of hours...the more north it goes, the longer it'll be over land

[LAwxrgal]

Just logged on, and Bonnie looks terrible. I hope she doesn't survive tonight.

Looks like nothing more than an increased shot at thunderstorms for Sat & Sun for us. Compared to what we could be dealing with this time of year, I'll take it, I guess.

[StormClouds63]

Unfortunately we can't retire storm names when the cyclone is lame!!!

I have a list when that becomes a possibility!!!!

Here's some recent contenders for "that" list. Bonnie may indeed be a candidate:
Hermine (1998)
Debby (2000)
Lili (2002)
Earl (2004)
Chris (2006)
Ernesto (2006)

Trust the mets on this board. They are not only well-trained and educated in their field, but have good common sense as well not to cause a panic or underestimate a storm.

[Stormcenter]

If Bonnie goes poof then it should not be a surprise to anyone on this board. Several models showed this as a real possibility and it wasn't like the massive ULL was going to just going away. The signs were all there. I would still keep eye on her as she enters the GOM. Anyway it's not like there's anything else to track out there right now.

[dhweather]

The score at the half: Monster ULL 3 - Bonnie 1

[petit_bois]

Unfortunately we can't retire storm names when the cyclone is lame!!!

I have a list when that becomes a possibility!!!!

EARL !