ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[petit_bois]

Care to guesstimate how long before she drops back over water and into the gulf?
Early tonight?

[hurricaneCW]

It'll be back over water by this evening, correct? Wonder if she'll be able to pull it back together a bit once she's entirely over water again. Thoughts?

It will stay a weak system and could possibly dissipate. It's more or less a small test before the meat of the season in a few weeks. The environment is unfavorable and should stay that way. In fact, most of the Atlantic is unfavorable due to either wind shear or dry, stable air conditions from the SAL. I'm starting to think it could stay that way until mid August, if not later but we'll see.

[fci]

Bonnie actually was more of a weather-event than Ernerto. I remember that we had a hurricane warning, local stations going 24/7, and we had a shower around midnight and that was it!!! lol

We nicknamed Ernesto "The Leaf Blower"

[Sanibel]

Robbed of the desperately needed rain so far.

[Frank2]

Mama - now that's a ULL:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

eventually the ULL will have to turn NW, so we'll see what happens to Bonnie, though on the WV it looks pretty wobbly (a/k/a weak)...

[Vortmax1]

[Blown Away]

We ended up getting some nice tropical rains in WPB, I would guesstimate 2-3", with very little wind, maybe 20mph gusts! Bonnie looks done IMO.

[Sanibel]

Looks like the landfall effects are enhanced by the ULL busting it open.


For those not in the area this is a real wimp of a system with almost nothing to it. The landscapers are outside mowing lawns as I type.

[MWatkins]

Looking at Miami radar, it's hard to tell if there is a closed circulation left. I think there is, for now anyway, but the trip over land could bring that to an end, even if it is over the everglades.

It sure looks like whatever is left of Bonnie is getting vacuumed into the ULL, which is now the dominant feature in the Gulf of Mexico.

Despite that, I think it was impressive that Bonnie held together as well as it did given the convergence aloft last night.

Will be interesting to see if it hangs together as a distinct entity during the next few days...

MW

[StormClouds63]

It'll be back over water by this evening, correct? Wonder if she'll be able to pull it back together a bit once she's entirely over water again. Thoughts?

It will stay a weak system and could possibly dissipate. It's more or less a small test before the meat of the season in a few weeks. The environment is unfavorable and should stay that way. In fact, most of the Atlantic is unfavorable due to either wind shear or dry, stable air conditions from the SAL. I'm starting to think it could stay that way until mid August, if not later but we'll see.

That's such a huge ULL that Bonnie is doomed to be sheared throughout her journey through the GOM. She may already by down to tropical depression stage at this point. Entire Atlantic basin really not conducive for any significant tropical activity ... I know it's only July 23, but I still believe the seasonal forecasts were far too aggressive. Only time will tell on 2010, but nothing in the works for at least the next 7-10 days. Appears Colin will be an August system for sure.

[StormClouds63]

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE...LESS ORGANIZED...MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

[eastcoastFL]

I remember wilma and ernesto strengthening over florida. I lived in port st lucie at the time and ernesto was supposed to be nothing by the time it reached us. It sat over the lake and just dumped rain on us we had police on our street riding on boats.

With wilma we were told that the 2nd half of the storm wouldnt be much to worry about and that it may just be a TS by the time it reached palm beach county. Well the everglades fed Wilma some serious fuel and the 2nd half of that storm was the worst thing I have ever experienced since moving to florida in 2002.

[StormClouds63]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 81.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS. NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE BONNIE CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Strong Thunderstorm Cells in a squall moving just south of Tampa
Heaviest Cells are entering Hillsborough County (the county containing Tampa)
from Polk County. With Temperatures in the Upper 80s that is enough
daytime heating to make some of these cells strong.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[tina25]

Looks like the landfall effects are enhanced by the ULL busting it open.


For those not in the area this is a real wimp of a system with almost nothing to it. The landscapers are outside mowing lawns as I type.

Definitely an anti-climatic day. I was looking forward to some nice wind and rain. Oh well.

[Stormcenter]

Yeah I think the chances of the 20 plus season are
quickly dimishing.

It'll be back over water by this evening, correct? Wonder if she'll be able to pull it back together a bit once she's entirely over water again. Thoughts?

It will stay a weak system and could possibly dissipate. It's more or less a small test before the meat of the season in a few weeks. The environment is unfavorable and should stay that way. In fact, most of the Atlantic is unfavorable due to either wind shear or dry, stable air conditions from the SAL. I'm starting to think it could stay that way until mid August, if not later but we'll see.

That's such a huge ULL that Bonnie is doomed to be sheared throughout her journey through the GOM. She may already by down to tropical depression stage at this point. Entire Atlantic basin really not conducive for any significant tropical activity ... I know it's only July 23, but I still believe the seasonal forecasts were far too aggressive. Only time will tell on 2010, but nothing in the works for at least the next 7-10 days. Appears Colin will be an August system for sure.

[Vortmax1]

Well the everglades fed Wilma some serious fuel and the 2nd half of that storm was the worst thing I have ever experienced.

That back side of Wilma was a real wild ride!
I rode out two eyes in 04 and one in 05.
Not looking forward to doing that again.

[HURAKAN]

Nice loop

[southerngale]

In this water vapor loop, Bonnie looks like an outer band of the ULL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[tailgater]

IMHO Bonnie is done. The ULL has slowed down and she'll be headed into even more shear. I know better than to say never but I think Bones should be getting a call soon. Just enough of a threat to stop some of the clean up operations.