Breaking news: Special statement from NHC:NO TD YET BUT

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:32 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1824.shtml?

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:34 pm

Another plane will go this evening.

mf_dolphin · #3 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:34 pm

Getting more interesting every hour :-)

Johnny · #4 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:35 pm

Yep, it's getting it's act together no doubt. I think the only way for this system to go now is up (strengthen). Am I right?

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2:30 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SO FAR IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...IT MEASURED WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF LOWEST
PRESSURE WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BECAUSE SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA AND THE KEYS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON LOCAL WEATHER
CAN BE FOUND IN STATEMENTS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:35 pm

Yes Marshall things are slowly getting together.

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:38 pm

Look who wrote it Avila - as mention by Storms in another thread with this same topic posted about 5 mins earlier. GAMES ON.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:40 pm

Yes I didn't noticed that was him that is very interesting.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:42 pm

Now I noticed an error in the date up there but that is of course an error in typing.

Johnny · #9 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 2:00 pm

What's the deal with Avila?

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 2:05 pm

Avila is not a prodeveloper forecaster as he diminuishes systems potential almost always not like Stewart or Beven that are bullish on systems.

#11 Postby **alicia-w** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 2:12 pm

So, are you implying that this storm may actually have a chance? That Avila is underestimating rather than over? Just trying to learn.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 2:16 pm

When Avila made that kind of statement that means system is going to develop as he is almost always not too open that way for systems to develop.

Stormsfury · #13 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 2:25 pm

Avila is the angel of storm development death ... when he honks, I listen.

SF

southerngale · #14 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 2:29 pm

I don't think they would be going out there again this evening if they didn't expect to find at least a TD. It looks like a TS to me now.

But what do I know? :roll:

#15 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 2:29 pm

As Sf has said...in tropical circles, Avila is known as "The Angel of Death"...or "Dr. Death."

Guest · #16 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 2:30 pm

And what does it mean when he suggest development?

southerngale · #17 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 2:31 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Avila is the angel of storm development death ... when he honks, I listen.

SF

LOL!!!

Colin · #18 Postby **Colin** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 5:34 pm

WOOHOO...this is getting quite interesting...

Breaking news: Special statement from NHC:NO TD YET BUT

Breaking news: Special statement from NHC:NO TD YET BUT

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