ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[tina25]

So far most of the rain bands are north of Naples.

[HURAKAN]

Landfall was on Cutler Bay, FL, 12 miles SSE of where I live!

Pressure got down to 1009.1 mb, rising now.

[tolakram]

Looks to be falling apart now.

Please do not quote this image.

[Stormcenter]

IMO I think Bonnie does have a better chance in the GOM to strenghthen.
Now that doesn't mean it will happen but the possibility is there.
Right now she is doing a decent job of hanging on while a lot of her circulation
is over land. What I think will be interesting is when she slows down (per the NHC)
somewhat as she approaches the coast for her second landfall. This is when the window of opportunity may present itself for some strengthening. Now all of this could be a mute point if the ULL rips her apart once she enters the GOM. We shall see.

If it hasn't got stronger yet, I don't think it will get stronger once it enters the gulf. It's had plenty of opportunity, and while the shear might be slightly less in the gulf, most models are showing that it will still be there.

[Frank2]

SURFACE...RADAR AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 1100 AM
EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MADE LANDFALL
IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR CUTLER BAY WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 40
MPH...65 KM/HR.

...almost in the same spot as Andrew, way back in 1992 (below photo taken of the Dadeland mobile home park, 3 miles SW of my house at the time of Andrew - now you know):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurri ... a_2563.jpg

[Vortmax1]

A horrible reminder of what CAN happen Frank.

Allow me to rephrase that please:

A reminder of how terrifying and deadly Hurricanes can be.

[Steve]

>>Could that upper-level low simply absorb Bonnie and become a new system?

It's not going to form a new system in this case, but that happens sometimes with storms in the Western Atlantic, where you have an upper feature that "ingests" a surface feature which sometimes results in hybrid and or partially warm core features that are often stronger than either the original tropical system and the upper system. It was the old JB "Napoleon Blownaparte" type system.

[rockyman]

Models vs. Reality:

[Frank2]

Vortmax1,

That's right - I evacuated the night before up to my sister's house in Palm Beach County, went back to my house 48 hours later to find half the roof gone and that the bedroom had become part of the backyard, and returned to my sister's house that evening looking as if I'd seen a ghost - as my sister-in-law said (they lived in Melbourne at the time), they could tell the "Andrew people" because they all had the same glassy look in their eyes - me too...

Frank

P.S. Back to Bonnie (oops)...

[Stormcenter]

Hanging in there and expanding somewhat as the circulation begins to enter the GOM.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[lester]

Looks like recon evidence is enough to keep it a ts for now..

[Vortmax1]

they could tell the "Andrew people" because they all had the same glassy look in their eyes

I know. I saw a lot of "those" faces. I never want to see that again.

[JtSmarts]

Hanging in there and expanding somewhat as the circulation begins to enter the GOM.

She's not the healthiest little thing but I've seen stronger storms that looked worse. She does remind me of her 2004 predecessor with her small ball of convection. I think as long as she keeps that compact ball she has chance to at least remain a weak to moderate TS.

[ROCK]

wouldnt it be cool if she wrapped all the way around the ULL.. ...now that would be something.....BTW- I have never seen a TS imbedded in a huge ULL's signature such as this...see it all now....

[HURAKAN]

looks weaker

[HURAKAN]

becoming exposed

[ConvergenceZone]

looks weaker

Yes, they just mentioned on the weather that it's becomming increasingly questionable whether or not Bonnie is going to survive, or just open back up to a wave bringing some rain across the gulf states. I guess it's just a wait and see situation....

[Vortmax1]

Where I am this has been a non-event.
I'm hoping to get at least a portion of the blob over the Bahamas later.
But even that looks iffy right now:

[RachelAnna]

It'll be back over water by this evening, correct? Wonder if she'll be able to pull it back together a bit once she's entirely over water again. Thoughts?

[Vortmax1]

Wonder if she'll be able to pull it back together a bit once she's entirely over water again. Thoughts?

It doesn't look too promising to me for re-strengthening. Maybe slightly but the environment is hostile.